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Thread: Predict their stats for 2013

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  1. #1
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Predict their stats for 2013

    It's getting to be the time of year where we're desperate for more to discuss. So... predict the 2013 stats for the Reds starting rotation and starting eight position players. List 'em in the order you think they will appear in Dusty's standard lineup and pitching staff, as I do here (if you'd prefer to use more up to date stats, obviously feel free -- I'm too tired to think that way at the moment).

    Shin-Soo Choo .300, 25 HR, 25 SB
    Brandon Phillips .280, 20 HR, 27 SB
    Joey Votto .340, 28 HR, 122 RBI
    Ryan Ludwick .250, 30 HR, 97 RBI
    Jay Bruce .255, 37 HR, 101 RBI
    Todd Frazier .265, 23 HR, 67 RBI
    Zack Cozart .235, 12 HR, 43 RBI
    Ryan Hanigan .276, 3 HR, 31 RBI

    Mat Latos 18-10, 3.15 ERA, 205 K
    Homer Bailey 15-7, 3.77 ERA, 182 K
    Johnny Cueto 12-14, 3.93 ERA, 165 K
    Aroldis Chapman 9-4, 4.14 ERA, 207 K, 18 SV
    Bronson Arroyo 7-12, 4.89 ERA, 123 K
    Last edited by RedEye; 12-20-2012 at 01:08 AM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  2. #2
    Have Faith In Dusty DGullett35's Avatar
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Choo- .274, 18HR, 23SB
    BP- .291, 24HR, 20SB
    Votto- .338, 31HR, 102RBI, 52 doubles
    Ludwick- .253, 33HR, 107RBI
    Bruce- .269, 44HR, 111RBI
    Frazier- .251 14HR, 35RBI
    Hanigan- .277, 5HR, 27RBI,
    Cozart- .249, 18HR, 29 RBI, 20SB

    Cueto- 7-5, 3.63 68K
    Latos- 18-7, 2.98 212K
    Bailey- 19-10, 3.47 201K
    Arroyo- 12-11, 3.95 127K
    Leake- 9-7, 4.04 84K
    Chapman- 7-5, 4.27, I think he starts in the pen and dominates but gets thrown into the rotation at some point and struggles just a bit before picking it up and helping Latos and Bailey carry us into the playoffs.

    Broxton- 5-4, 2.59, 38saves
    and just for fun: Hannahan- .252, 11HR, 24RBI and ends up with about the same amount of starts at 3rd as Frazier.
    "Losing feels worse than winning feels good." -Vin Scully

  3. #3
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DGullett35 View Post
    Choo- .274, 18HR, 23SB
    BP- .291, 24HR, 20SB
    Votto- .338, 31HR, 102RBI, 52 doubles
    Ludwick- .253, 33HR, 107RBI
    Bruce- .269, 44HR, 111RBI
    Frazier- .251 14HR, 35RBI
    Hanigan- .277, 5HR, 27RBI,
    Cozart- .249, 18HR, 29 RBI, 20SB

    Cueto- 7-5, 3.63 68K
    Latos- 18-7, 2.98 212K
    Bailey- 19-10, 3.47 201K
    Arroyo- 12-11, 3.95 127K
    Leake- 9-7, 4.04 84K
    Chapman- 7-5, 4.27, I think he starts in the pen and dominates but gets thrown into the rotation at some point and struggles just a bit before picking it up and helping Latos and Bailey carry us into the playoffs.

    Broxton- 5-4, 2.59, 38saves
    and just for fun: Hannahan- .252, 11HR, 24RBI and ends up with about the same amount of starts at 3rd as Frazier.
    I assume Cueto gets hurt in this prediction?
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  4. #4
    Have Faith In Dusty DGullett35's Avatar
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I assume Cueto gets hurt in this prediction?
    yes
    "Losing feels worse than winning feels good." -Vin Scully

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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Choo- .294, 16HR, 23SB
    BP- .271, 24HR, 15SB
    Votto- .328, 25HR, 105RBI, 52 doubles
    Ludwick- .253, 33HR, 97RBI
    Bruce- .269, 44HR, 111RBI
    Frazier- .251 14HR, 35RBI
    Hanigan- .277, 5HR, 27RBI,
    Cozart- .249, 18HR, 29 RBI, 20SB

    I simply do not see BP getting 20+ SB's after not having that many since 2009.

  6. #6
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Bill James Handbook 2013 (Published in October):

    Choo: .283/.374/.815, 16 HR, 18 SBs
    BP: .277/.327/.759, 20 HRs, 16 SBs
    Votto: .312/.422/.960, 27 HRs, 8 SBs
    Ludwick: .254/.327/.776, 19 HRs, 1 SB
    Bruce: .263/.342/.860, 36 HRs, 9 SBs
    Frazier: .263/.325/.802, 15 HRs, 6 SBs
    Hanigan: .275/.367/.725, 3 HRs, 0 SBs
    Cozart: .260/.308/.723, 15 HRs, 9 SBs

    Pitchers:
    Cueto: 14-10, 3.52, 169 Ks
    Latos: 15-8, 3.16, 194 Ks
    Chapman: 4-3, 2.42, 98 Ks, 48 saves
    Bailey: 12-12, 3.86, 172 Ks
    Arroyo: 12-12, 3.88, 136 Ks
    Leake: 9-11, 4.15, 119 Ks
    Marshall: 4-3, 3.05, 57 Ks
    Broxton: 4-3, 2.90, 71 Ks, 20 saves
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  7. #7
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mattfeet View Post
    Choo- .294, 16HR, 23SB
    BP- .271, 24HR, 15SB
    Votto- .328, 25HR, 105RBI, 52 doubles
    Ludwick- .253, 33HR, 97RBI
    Bruce- .269, 44HR, 111RBI
    Frazier- .251 14HR, 35RBI
    Hanigan- .277, 5HR, 27RBI,
    Cozart- .249, 18HR, 29 RBI, 20SB

    I simply do not see BP getting 20+ SB's after not having that many since 2009.
    I sure hope you are right about Bruce!
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  8. #8
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    It's getting to be the time of year where we're desperate for more to discuss. So... predict the 2013 stats for the Reds starting rotation and starting eight position players. List 'em in the order you think they will appear in Dusty's standard lineup and pitching staff, as I do here (if you'd prefer to use more up to date stats, obviously feel free -- I'm too tired to think that way at the moment).

    Shin-Soo Choo .300, 25 HR, 25 SB
    Brandon Phillips .280, 20 HR, 27 SB
    Joey Votto .340, 28 HR, 122 RBI
    Ryan Ludwick .250, 30 HR, 97 RBI
    Jay Bruce .255, 37 HR, 101 RBI
    Todd Frazier .265, 23 HR, 67 RBI
    Zack Cozart .235, 12 HR, 43 RBI
    Ryan Hanigan .276, 3 HR, 31 RBI

    Mat Latos 18-10, 3.15 ERA, 205 K
    Homer Bailey 15-7, 3.77 ERA, 182 K
    Johnny Cueto 12-14, 3.93 ERA, 165 K
    Aroldis Chapman 9-4, 4.14 ERA, 207 K, 18 SV
    Bronson Arroyo 7-12, 4.89 ERA, 123 K
    Just curious...why the down year for Cueto? The rest I agree with except I think Votto will see a power spike this year
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  9. #9
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Just curious...why the down year for Cueto? The rest I agree with except I think Votto will see a power spike this year
    No particular reason other than I have a feeling that Lato and Bailey are up and Cueto is down in 2013. Pretty scientific.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  10. #10
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Off the top of my head because it's more fun that way:

    Hanigan - .270/.340/.360
    Mesoraco - .250/.320/.410

    Votto - .340/.470/.550
    Phillips - .300/.340/.420
    Cozart - .240/.290/.400
    Frazier - .250/.310/.430
    Hannahan - .250/.310/380
    Donald - .240/.290/.330
    Burriss - .230/.280/.300

    Ludwick - .250/.320/.440
    Choo - .280/.370/.440
    Bruce - .260/.340/.540
    Heisey - .260/.310/.400
    Paul - .240/.300/.380
    Hamilton - .250/.320/.330

    Cueto - 190 IP, 3.30 ERA, 150 Ks
    Latos - 210 IP, 3.40 ERA, 190 Ks
    Bailey - 150 IP, 3.70 ERA, 120 Ks
    Arroyo - 200 IP, 4.20 ERA, 140 Ks
    Chapman (SP) - 80 IP, 4.20 ERA, 80 Ks
    Leake (SP) - 120 IP, 4.20 ERA, 80 Ks
    Villareal (SP) - 10 IP, 6.00 ERA, 5 Ks
    Corcino - 10 IP, 5.00 ERA, 8 Ks

    Broxton - 40 IP, 3.50 ERA, 35 Ks
    Marshall - 70 IP, 2.80 ERA, 65 Ks
    Hoover - 60 IP, 2.50 ERA, 70 Ks
    Massett - 20 IP, 5.50 ERA, 15 Ks
    Simon - 60 IP, 3.50 ERA, 60 Ks
    Gorzelanny - 30 IP, 3.30 ERA, 25 Ks
    Chapman (RP) - 30 IP, 2.80 ERA, 40 Ks
    Leake (RP) - 20 IP, 3.70 ERA, 15 Ks
    Ondrusek - 15 IP, 4.30 ERA, 10 Ks
    Cingrani - 25 IP, 1.50 ERA, 25 Ks
    Lotzkar - 5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 8 Ks
    Villareal (RP) - 5 IP, 4.50 ERA, 4 Ks

    I've got no idea if those innings add up and I don't care so don't call me out on it. Somebody is going to end up getting some PAs in the outfield because of injuries in the first half of the year, but I'm not sure who gets those PAs at this point. I'm predicting we sign Gorzellany (a guy can dream) and that Arredondo and Redmond are casualties of late Spring trades...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  11. #11
    Member powersackers's Avatar
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Choo OPS+ 118
    Phillips OPS+ 105
    Votto OPS+ 140
    Ludwick OPS+ 102
    Bruce OPS+ 127
    Frazier OPS+ 98
    Cozart OPS+ 90
    Hanigan OPS+ 77
    Mesaroco OPS+ 115

    Cueto ERA+ 130
    Latos ERA+ 120
    Bailey ERA+ 105
    Arroyo ERA+ 88
    Chapman ERA+ 135
    Broxton ERA+ 140
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  12. #12
    Lets Go 'Bird' Hunting The Voice of IH's Avatar
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    I am excited to see the boost that Choo gets playing at Great American Ball Park.

    I imagine that it is going to be Ryan Ludwick-esq but he is starting at a better spot than Ludwick did.
    Hey Sparky! Indian Hill English teachers taught me everything I know!

  13. #13
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Shin-Soo Choo .308, 24 HR,18 SB
    Brandon Phillips .272, 17 HR, 15 SB
    Joey Votto .329, 35 HR, 119 RBI
    Ryan Ludwick .269, 26 HR, 86 RBI
    Jay Bruce .272, 39 HR, 112 RBI
    Todd Frazier .265, 23 HR, 67 RBI
    Zack Cozart .256, 17 HR, 58 RBI
    Ryan Hanigan .276, 6 HR, 38 RBI

    Mat Latos 17-8, 3.11 ERA, 199 K
    Homer Bailey 18-9, 3.65 ERA, 171 K
    Johnny Cueto 19-8, 3.25 ERA, 182 K
    Aroldis Chapman 12-8, 3.82 ERA, 225 K
    Bronson Arroyo 8-10, 4.74 ERA, 114 K
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  14. #14
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Shin-Soo Choo - .305/.400/.485, 20 HR
    Brandon Phillips - .300/.340/.445, 18 HR
    Joey Votto - .345/.465/.550 - 31 HR
    Ryan Ludwick - .270/.335/.500, 25 HR
    Jay Bruce - .270/.350/.540 - 37 HR
    Todd Frazier - .275/.335/.480 - 22 HR
    Ryan Hanigan - .280/.350/.380 - 4 HR
    Zack Cozart -.265/.315/.400 - 16 HR

    Devin Mesoraco - .250/.310/.450 - 14 HR

    Mat Latos - 215 IP, 205 K, 2.85 ERA
    Johnny Cueto - 205 IP, 175 K, 2.90 ERA
    Aroldis Chapman - 150 IP, 195 K, 3.45 ERA
    Homer Bailey - 200 IP, 170 K, 3.50 ERA
    Bronson Arroyo - 200 IP, 140 K, 4.15 ERA
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  15. #15
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Shin-Soo Choo - .305/.400/.485, 20 HR
    Brandon Phillips - .300/.340/.445, 18 HR
    Joey Votto - .345/.465/.550 - 31 HR
    Ryan Ludwick - .270/.335/.500, 25 HR
    Jay Bruce - .270/.350/.540 - 37 HR
    Todd Frazier - .275/.335/.480 - 22 HR
    Ryan Hanigan - .280/.350/.380 - 4 HR
    Zack Cozart -.265/.315/.400 - 16 HR

    Devin Mesoraco - .250/.310/.450 - 14 HR

    Mat Latos - 215 IP, 205 K, 2.85 ERA
    Johnny Cueto - 205 IP, 175 K, 2.90 ERA
    Aroldis Chapman - 150 IP, 195 K, 3.45 ERA
    Homer Bailey - 200 IP, 170 K, 3.50 ERA
    Bronson Arroyo - 200 IP, 140 K, 4.15 ERA
    This looks pretty close to what I'd predict. My only differences would be fewer innings and a little more struggles for Cueto. 190IP and 3.75 ERA and I think Chapman is going to struggle multiple times through the order. 140 IP, 150K and 4.75 ERA. He picks up 10 saves with an August move back to the pen.

    I'll add Mike Leake with 17 Starts, 130 IP and a 4.15 ERA.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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