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Thread: Predict their stats for 2013

  1. #16
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Please feel free to use my Reds Projection Calculator where you can enter projections for the full 25 man roster: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...zBQZ0lUU2lUZ0E

    My first-pass, optimistic (no injuries) projection has them at 98-64. Go to town on the RZ sheets. I won't put in RBI or ERA, but here are some of the stats I projected (rounded for easy consumption).

    Code:
    Choo	  .290/.385/.475, 20 HR
    Phillips  .275/.325/.410, 15 HR
    Votto	  .305/.425/.575, 30 HR
    Ludwick	  .255/.320/.465, 20 HR
    Bruce	  .260/.345/.520, 40 HR
    Frazier	  .255/.315/.450, 20 HR
    Hanigan   .265/.365/.330,  2 HR
    Cozart	  .245/.300/.391, 15 HR
    
    Mesoraco  .255/.315/.420, 10 HR
    Heisey    .250/.305/.455, 15 HR
    
    
    		  IP	K	FIP	
    SP1	Cueto	  210	160	3.50
    SP2	Latos	  220	210	3.55
    SP3	Bailey	  200	165	3.80
    SP4	Arroyo	  200	120	4.45
    SP5	Chapman	  140	160	3.00
    LR	Ondrusek   20	12	4.70
    MR	Simon	   50	40	3.90
    MR	Arredondo  60	60	3.90
    MR	Hoover	   60	60	3.45
    SU	Marshall   60	70	2.20
    SU	LeCure	   60	60	3.20
    CL	Broxton	   60	50	3.30
    P	Leake	   80	55	4.10
    P	Cingrani   20	15	4.30
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-27-2012 at 11:51 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #17
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    I feel like even the most 'reasonable' predictions we put up here for the lineup are like fantasy baseball good. Are we crazy and too optimistic or could they really be this good?
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  4. #18
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I feel like even the most 'reasonable' predictions we put up here for the lineup are like fantasy baseball good. Are we crazy and too optimistic or could they really be this good?
    That lineup just makes me giddy every time I look at it, and then I remember we had arguably the best pitching staff in the league last year. Needless to say, this offseason is brutal. Bring on April already!

  5. #19
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    The best thing about the Red lineup is the lack of holes.

    Looking at the lineup position by position, the following players were below average offensively in 2012 (according to wRC+):
    C Hanigan/ Mesoraco (21)
    SS Cozart (21)

    Frazier (12) and Bruce (13) were right around league average at 3B and RF respectively, Ludwick was a Top 10 performer (8), and Votto (1), Choo (3), and Phillips (4) were Top Five for their positions. Reds pitchers ranked third in the National League in wRC+ as well.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  6. #20
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Predict their stats for 2013

    Using RMR calculator, I got the same bottom line results--98-64. Plugging Choo into that lineup added over 100 runs to the bottom line. So even with a little pitching regression, Walt shored up the lineup enough to ensure similar expected results. Of course, also figuring a full year of Votto and all else being pretty much status quo adds to the bottom line, with Bruce improving and even with some regression by Ludwick, this is a solid roster.

    Stating the obvious, but good to churn through the numbers and see it. At the risk of being crass, watching the offense day after day was like a bad case of constipation with the top of the order problems. It now appears to be free flowing with a lot more Choo
    Last edited by traderumor; 12-28-2012 at 03:56 PM.
    Can't win with 'em

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