Corcino at closer?
Choo still around in 2016?
Corcino at closer?
Choo still around in 2016?
From the chat, I found it interesting that JJ Cooper said that he probably doesn't see Travieso or Winker as Top 200 prospects. I guess I can get the rational with Travieso and his limited track record, but Winker not only has reports to work with, but numbers too. Just interesting to see.
Either way, Winker would be on my Top 200. Any other highlights from the chat?
Last edited by Benihana; 01-09-2013 at 03:40 PM.
How about Lohman going as the best defensive infielder? That puts him on the Janish track maybe?
Obviously super early but the initial reports on Travieso don't seem as optimistic as they did on Stephenson.
The Winker write up seems pretty glowing, so surprising he doesn't rank higher.
Other items of note:
Ryan Lamarre has been the best defensive OF for 3 straight years on BA.
Yorman Rodriguez has been the best OF arm for 3 straight years on BA.
Tucker Barnhardt has been best defensive catcher for 2 straight years.
Ismael Guillon has had the best changeup 2 of the last 3 years. Renken had it last year.
Billy Hamilton has been the best athlete and fastest baserunner the last 3 years.
Juan Francisco held best infield arm for 5 years straight, lol. Also best power for 3 years.
Alonso held best hitter for average and strike zone discipline for 4 years straight.
2006 saw Votto shut out of any of these distinctions, notably in favor of Paul Janish, best strike zone discipline. The year prior he was best power hitter and best strike zone discipline.
A few more:
Jesse Winker is the heir to Yonder Alonso and Jay Bruce, who held best hitter for average over the last 7 previous lists.
Robert Stephenson is the first pitcher to carry best fastball and best curveball since Homer Bailey, who held these for 3 straight years in 2005-2007.
The other pitchers with two distinctions in a year are:
Johnny Cueto - best slider and best control in 2006 and 2007.
Aroldis Chapman - best fastball and best slider in 2010.
Kyle Lotzkar - best curveball and best control in 2010.
I kind of like that Cooper went off the reservation at bit with his 7-10 picks. The Reds have a system that's in mid-reload. He credited Hoover and then took a few bets on the guys he expects to be hotter properties.
Based on the BA league top 20 lists, you've got to figure Gelalich and Mejias-Brean are lurking in the low teens.
The one ranking here I view as shaky is Travieso. I get the sense that Cooper is putting him at at #5 on the list out of custom more than based on confidence.
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
Make that a thing.
Last edited by klw; 01-10-2013 at 01:06 PM.
As J.J. said, there is very little separation in the guys in the bottom half of the top 10 and the next tier of players.
With all of the prospects that, within the last two years, the Reds have either traded, graduated to the bigs, or topped out, there is a huge drop right now once you get past # 6 in comparison to recent years. The players ranked 7-10 on this list would have come in somewhere in the 12-20 window in recent years.
As I have said many times, I would use caution in reading too much into the rankings. There is not as much of a consensus as it often appears. He even says, one scout liked Reynoso better than Winker. You are probably talking about a scout that saw them play five games. Scouts watch five games and move on. I have talked to a thousand scouts and you have to take their comments in generalities. Scout #1, who is a talker, will go on and on about how much he loves a particular player. Scout #2, who speaks in more guarded terms, will hold back and give you the feeling he has some reservations about that same player. Then, you get them to tell you their grade on the player, and Scout #2 actually gave him a higher grade! J.J. does a great job at what he does, but he is going strictly off phone conversations and what people are willing to share. As Doug noted, they had Guillon behind Langfield, Gelalich, and Mejias-Brean in the Pioneer League rankings and now he is ahead of all those guys. There is very little consensus.
Couple thoughts: Lohman-Janish comparison? Worlds apart. Lohman as the #1 defensive infielder is more a statement about all the guys that have left. You have virtually no one remaining that would be viewed as an above average defensive infielder. I would have thought they would have gone with David Vidal in that category.
The "best tools" title is actually a bit misleading. I guess they mean "potential best tools" or something. There is not a single scout who could tell you with a straight face that Yorman Rodriguez has a better arm than Jefry Sierra, but for whatever reason, they give Yorman the nod there, I guess because he is a much better prospect.
His comment that Stephenson has the best arm since Homer Bailey is conservative. Stephenson, at this point, throws considerably harder than Bailey at the same age. You could make a case that Stephenson has the best arm since Don Gullett.
If you were going to try to draw a consensus among scouts, it is this. Hamilton is the Reds best prospect, followed by Stephenson, no argument from anyone. Then there is a drop off. Then you have Cingrani and Corcino. Then another drop. Then most would give Travieso the benefit of the doubt and put him in the next group with Winker and depending on the scout, you could stick one of 10 guys in that same group. Then another drop, and then guys like Guillon, Rogers, Mejias-Brean, Waldrop, Y-Rod, all in that mix. Some guys would have Lutz in that group. Some would have Barnhart in there. Some would have Gelalich and some would even throw Romano in there. Some like Moscot better than Langfield and some vice versa. Reynoso will suddenly start getting talked about, for one simple reason, of course: J.J. put him on the list.
Last edited by redsof72; 01-11-2013 at 11:07 AM.
Gullett had more arm strength than Nolan (talking about before Nolan blew out his arm). But Nolan's FB-curve combo may have been better than Gullett's FB-slider.
Howington was not in the same category as those guys, IMO.
"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini
Russ Nixon once told me that Gullett threw 100. That was before the days of the radar gun, of course. Nolan threw hard before hurting his arm. In the days when there were frequent twi-night doubleheaders, Sparky used to make sure he used Gullett in the first game when it was hard to pick up the ball as darkness was setting in.
Howington did not throw as hard as Stephenson, nor has anyone else the Reds have had for a long time (other than Chapman, of course). Stephenson can sit at 97 as a starting pitcher. Bailey was 92-95.
For those younger than me that might like a little historical perspective of the guys mentioned here: Don Gullett went 16-6 for the Reds at the age of 20, which was his second year in the bigs. Gary Nolan went 14-8 for the Reds at the age of 19. You do not hear much about pitchers from the Big Red Machine era but they were key cogs.
Reds scout Gene Bennett signed Gullett as well as many others (Larkin, O'Neill, Sabo) and loved to tell stories about Gullett as a high school pitcher in Kentucky. He has told me that he saw Gullett throw a perfect game and only one ball was actually put in play. He held his breath that no one else would see this kid, knowing that the Reds had the 14th pick in the first round. They drafted Gullett, and he pitched in a total of 11 minor league games before getting called up at age 19. Gullett's career record in the majors was 109-50 before injuries ended his career at age 27.
Gary Nolan's first year in the minors is a testament to the way things were in those days. At age 18, right out of high school, he made 12 starts with Sioux Falls, and logged 104 innings. That means he AVERAGED eight and two-thirds innings per start, for the year! He averaged more than 13 strikeouts per start over a season. Good Lord.
How good was Gary Nolan before his shoulder injury? At the all-star break in 1972, he was 13-2, 1.81. He then missed the next two years and came back as a control pitcher for two seasons before retiring at age 29.
Last edited by redsof72; 01-11-2013 at 11:58 AM.