If I had a vote I'd go:
Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress: Jessican Chastain
Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Supporting Acress: Anne Hathaway
Some close calls in all of those categories. This has been a pretty strong year for movies.
That's an awfully weak field for Best Director (where is PTA?). I think the strongest competition is for Best Supporting Actor.
Unless Les Miz or Lincoln sweep a lot of the categories, I think the most upset I could be is if Wreck-It Ralph doesn't win haha...
edit: The Master deserved a cinematography nod too!
If the movie and story were so good, then it would be just as good if it were about getting you or I. But it wasn't. It is playing on the emotional feelings we all have with getting him. And man, it felt good. But that doesn't make the movie on it's own good or bad. As I said, the movie was solid. But it wasn't special.
I have to agree with Doug on this one. ZDT was a good but not great movie, IMO. Of course, I am usually a tough assessor of movies.
It was going to be a lot easier to get that movie wrong than it was to get it right. I thought it was perfectly paced and incredibly well acted and suspenseful. There was a TV movie verision of the hunt for Bin Laden sometime last fall that was the perfect example of what not to do and ZDT nailed it.
I was disappointed that Skyfall was not nominated for Best Picture. I would not have expected it to win but I was hoping it would get a nomination. It was clearly the best (though only)movie that I saw last year.
The fact that Ben Affleck got snubbed for best director is ridiculous.