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Thread: John Sickels' Rankings

  1. #121
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    What's wrong with more guys LOB?

    Men LOB is a natural extension of having a lot of guys get on base. I'd even wager that men LOB correlates pretty highly with run scoring. If you lead the league in men LOB, odds are you also had a boatload of baserunners and were among the league leaders in runs scored as well.
    Nothing is worng with more guys on base, I'm just saying I'd rather have Votto hitting with a runner on first than some one else with that Runner stealing second and Votto walking. I think the Reds chances of scoring a run are better with Votto hitting. I think the chances of a 3 run homer are better with Votto walking, but, IMO, there is a lot more chance of getting nothng as well. The drop-off from Votto to anybody else is huge IMO.

    You also need to factor in the runner getting thrown out or picked-off and now Votto comes up with nobody on and two outs. I don't risk making the out in front of Votto.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #122
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Nothing is worng with more guys on base, I'm just saying I'd rather have Votto hitting with a runner on first than some one else with that Runner stealing second and Votto walking. I think the Reds chances of scoring a run are better with Votto hitting. I think the chances of a 3 run homer are better with Votto walking, but, IMO, there is a lot more chance of getting nothng as well. The drop-off from Votto to anybody else is huge IMO.

    You also need to factor in the runner getting thrown out or picked-off and now Votto comes up with nobody on and two outs. I don't risk making the out in front of Votto.
    I understand what you're saying, but don't think the math supports your thinking at all, even when including the possible stolen base at a 70% rate. (Which is low for Hamilton, IMO.)
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  4. #123
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I understand what you're saying, but don't think the math supports your thinking at all, even when including the possible stolen base at a 70% rate. (Which is low for Hamilton, IMO.)
    Again, if the math is based on linear weight and the probablitlies they arrive at from a large sample of all players I don't think it applies when the best hitter in the game is up and the alternaitive is one of the guys after him. I'd need to see the weights based on thise numbers.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #124
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    NM
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #125
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Again, if the math is based on linear weight and the probablitlies they arrive at from a large sample of all players I don't think it applies when the best hitter in the game is up and the alternaitive is one of the guys after him. I'd need to see the weights based on thise numbers.
    I think you saw them, mth.

    If other teams are willing to concede a 1.000 OBP to Votto with a runner on second, the Reds should be ecstatic. A free baserunner is worth more than the potential for an extra base hit. As good as Joey is, he 'only' gets an extra-base hit in 11% of his plate appearances. Bumping his OBP up by 585 points (versus his career average of 415) is worth WAY more than that 11% chance that he gets an extra-base hit.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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  7. #126
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    Not sure I buy it. I get the worth based on the linear weight, but again do the Red's have a better chance of scoring with Votto on Base or with Votto hitting with a runner on. Obviously if we have a league average hitter coming up and another on deck its better for Hamilton to run. If the first guy is walked, then all the better, but these guys aren't league average hitters. I just don't buy that taking the bat from Votto's hands increases the chance of scoring. I'd rather have Votto's .330 BA and .600 Slugging Percentage with a guy as fast as Hamilton on 1B then Ludwick's .250ish BA with runners on first and second.

    I think Votto has a zero percent chance of driving in a runner from second. They are going to take the bat from his hands. Stay put and Votto could still hit a single and put Hamilton on 3rd with those guys coming up and it eliminates the chance of a caught stealing or a pick-off.

    I hate to disparage the dead, but the Ryan Freel years made me very anti-steal. That 70% success rate is again base on all players over a large sample. If you are going to take a chance in front of the game's best hitter, you'd better be safe a lot more than 70% of the time (and those CS rates don't count times picked-off which makes the risk higher).

    Making outs on the bases is a pet peeve. If you're going to take a chance it needs to be in front of a judy hitter not the good ones. I think the big steal guys should hit 6th and 7th. The bottom of the order, in front of the weaker hitters, is where the extra bases are needed to get them around. Joey Votto doesn't need the help. He just needs the guy in front of him to keep from screwing it up by getting picked off of thrown out.
    Last edited by mth123; 01-26-2013 at 02:10 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  8. #127
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    NM. Bad Math.
    Last edited by mth123; 01-26-2013 at 04:06 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #128
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    I don't have time to do the math right now, but I strongly believe having Hamilton on second and Votto on first would yield a significantly higher expected runs than having Hamilton on first and Votto at the plate. You might be a little less likely to score one run, but you would be a lot more likely to score multiple runs. However, the risk of Hamilton getting busted in his attempt to steal second base is a major impediment even with Hamilton's blazing speed. The negative impact on run expectancy of a Caught Stealing is much, much higher than the positive impact of a successful steal. If you are going to have Hamilton steal second you should do it while Phillips is at the plate, and ideally have him steal third too.

    In general, stolen base attempts have a negligible affect on run scoring. The Steals, Pickoffs and Caught Stealings cancel each other out over the long haul unless the runner has an 80% or better success rate (70% if you ignore pickoffs). The stolen base is an exciting play, but it is not a good idea to build your offense around it.

    As mth123 stated, the run expectancy charts are generated by recording every single event in MLB and calculating the average number of runs that scored after that event. So it basically assumes that the batter and runners are league average in every respect. When you have a runner as fast as Hamilton and a batter as awesome as Votto the real run expectancy in that situation would be higher than the run expectancy matrix indicates. But those numbers should be higher across the board in pretty much the same ratios, so as a tool for picking the best strategy to employ in a particular situation the matrix should still be your guide.

    If I were the manager I would have Hamilton bat leadoff and have Joey Votto and his .450+ OBP bat second. Mathematically that is the best way to do it to maximize run production.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 01-26-2013 at 07:01 PM.

  10. #129
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    Looks like the break-even rate with Votto up and ludwick up next is around 82%. That seems like a pretty high bar for success when you count pick-offs as well as caught stealing.

    Code:
    Situation	                            Outcomes	Runs
    Times on No Running	                      100	N/A
    Votto Sngles or Walks and Ludwick Singles	4	4
    Votto Singles or Walksand Ludwick Out	        20      0
    Votto Sngles or Walks and Ludwick HR	        1	3
    Votto Singles or Walks and Ludwick 2B or 3B	2	4
    Votto Singles or Walkks and Ludwick Walks       3	0
    Votto 2B or 3B and Ludwick Out	                4	5
    Votto 2B or 2B and Ludiwck 1B	                1	2
    Votto 2B or 3B and Ludwick HR	                0	1
    Votto  2B or 3B and Ludwick 2B or 3B	        0	1
    Votto HR and Ludwick Doesn't	                4	8
    Votto and Ludwick HR	                        0	0
    	                                         	28
    
    Votto would make 61 outs in this scenario.
    		
    Situation	                           Outcomes	Runs
    Times on Base and Runs	                      100	0
    Hamilton CS	                               18	0
    Hamilton Steals, Votto BB	               82	0
     Ludwick Singles	                        11	11
     Ludwick 2b or 3B	                         4	8
    Ludwick HR	                                 3	9
    Ludwick out	                                55	0
    Ludwick Walks	                                 7	0
    	                                         82	28
    Last edited by mth123; 01-26-2013 at 07:22 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #130
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/...ystem-rankings

    John came out with his farm system rankings this afternoon. He had the reds ranked 15th overall.

  12. #131
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/...ystem-rankings

    John came out with his farm system rankings this afternoon. He had the reds ranked 15th overall.
    nice

  13. #132
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/...ystem-rankings

    John came out with his farm system rankings this afternoon. He had the reds ranked 15th overall.
    Cardinals at #1 scares the daylights outta me. That's already a heck of solid team. Add in plenty of payflex by avoiding the Pujols mega-contract and we could be in trouble.

  14. #133
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    How good is Jesse Winker? What are his chances of being a top-25 prospect in a couple of years?

  15. #134
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    [QUOTE=Pony Boy;2799526]How good is Jesse Winker? What are his chances of being a top-25 prospect in a couple of years?[/QUOTE

    Hes good. His power numbers may be a little inflated because he was playing in billings, but his k/bb was very good over his 60 game season. I think he should be out of short season A and into at least -A ball
    o start this season.

  16. #135
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    Re: John Sickels' Rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by Pony Boy View Post
    How good is Jesse Winker? What are his chances of being a top-25 prospect in a couple of years?
    Tough to project that kind of future status although he certainly seems to have the pedigree and hitting tools. What he does in his this year in his first full season will be a lot more telling.

    Stephenson could also be a Top 25 prospect - as early as this season.
    Go BLUE!!!


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