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Thread: Latos may break arbitration record; time to lock him up?

  1. #16
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Latos may break arbitration record; time to lock him up?

    I think if you're looking for 6 years, you're looking at 3 years of his prime FA years and that's going to cost you. Considering SP of his caliber are getting $20-25MM year, I'd ask for something like:

    2013: $4MM
    2014: $9MM
    2015: $14MM
    2016: $16MM
    2017: $18MM
    2018: $20MM

    So something like $80MM plus some incentives. IF you just take him to arb for 3 years and stays healthy, he'd be in line for something like $25MM/yr in 2016-18.

    I think a more likely scenario is simply getting some certainty through his arb years for ~$25MM. Cueto's deal is not a great baseline because he didn't have the track record of excellence that Latos has and we're further in to an era where the TV money has gotten silly.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-15-2013 at 12:32 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #17
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Latos may break arbitration record; time to lock him up?

    Love Latos, but I can't see him signing a contract that has any appearance of a "best buy" deal for the Reds. I would say RMR's estimate of $80 million is the baseline, and he might be looking higher. I know I would if I were in his shoes. These TV contracts are making the contracts look like monopoly money right now. The flip side, of course, would be if this is a TV "bubble" in contracts -- and that the true windfall is actually grossly overestimated. In that case, Latos would be wise to strike while the iron is hot and line up a could of $15-$20 million years while he's still young...
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  4. #18
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: Latos may break arbitration record; time to lock him up?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I'd sign it if I were Walt. Still going to be a bargain. I am telling you, look at how much TV money is going to be flowing in. Teams and players still aren't fully adjusted to just how much money is going to be there. Pay guys now for the future and watch them be bargains when it comes around.
    This. A thousand times this. I see no problem with that number going north to around 80. If they want to add a 7th year mutual option for another 20M I'm game as well. The next TV deal will be a huge jump in income for the Redlegs.
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  5. #19
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Latos may break arbitration record; time to lock him up?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Love Latos, but I can't see him signing a contract that has any appearance of a "best buy" deal for the Reds. I would say RMR's estimate of $80 million is the baseline, and he might be looking higher. I know I would if I were in his shoes. These TV contracts are making the contracts look like monopoly money right now. The flip side, of course, would be if this is a TV "bubble" in contracts -- and that the true windfall is actually grossly overestimated. In that case, Latos would be wise to strike while the iron is hot and line up a couple of $15-$20 million years while he's still young...
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  6. #20
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    Re: Latos may break arbitration record; time to lock him up?

    Matt Harrison, who is also 3 years from FA, just signed a 5 year-$55M contract.

    A good comp for Latos.

  7. #21
    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: Latos may break arbitration record; time to lock him up?

    I think we'd all be quite pleased if we could lock Latos up for that amount.

    -Matt

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    Re: Latos may break arbitration record; time to lock him up?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I'd sign it if I were Walt. Still going to be a bargain. I am telling you, look at how much TV money is going to be flowing in. Teams and players still aren't fully adjusted to just how much money is going to be there. Pay guys now for the future and watch them be bargains when it comes around.
    Doug I agree 100% when the salaries are gonna double over the next 5 years with teams signing new deals with their local TV stations. We were having this discussion regarding the Indians.

    I would try to lock him in a 10 year deal myself.

  9. #23
    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: Latos may break arbitration record; time to lock him up?

    Lock a pitcher up to a 10-yr deal? I don't mean to sound snarky, but what's your logic in that? That is quite the ambitious contract extension and one that I would never sign if I were a player in today's market.

    -Matt

  10. #24
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
    Doug I agree 100% when the salaries are gonna double over the next 5 years with teams signing new deals with their local TV stations. We were having this discussion regarding the Indians.

    I would try to lock him in a 10 year deal myself.
    Wayne Garland and Darren Dreifort endorse this approach

  11. #25
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Latos may break arbitration record; time to lock him up?

    $80M over 6 years is nothing to sneeze at when pitchers are blowing out their shoulder and arms on a pretty regular basis.

    Especially when he isn't a free agent for awhile. Better to get it now while healthy, when anything can happen healthwise.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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  12. #26
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Latos may break arbitration record; time to lock him up?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    $80M over 6 years is nothing to sneeze at when pitchers are blowing out their shoulder and arms on a pretty regular basis.

    Especially when he isn't a free agent for awhile. Better to get it now while healthy, when anything can happen healthwise.
    A regular basis? In the last two seasons the Reds have had one blown out elbow/shoulder and it is entirely possible that it was already damaged before the guy even became a Red.

  13. #27
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    Re: Latos may break arbitration record; time to lock him up?

    Blown elbows and arms are becoming less common with the improvements in bio mechanics, there was an article about the pitcher from Baltimore who is their top prospect I posted last year on this year. Pitchers now routinely are evaluated on their bio mechanics and the stress it brings to their arms, pitching motions are adjusted so they don't have these problems. With the explosion in local money a $130 million 10 year deal for Latos wouldn't be a bad investment.


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