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View Poll Results: Who is the Reds' #13 prospect for 2013?

Voters
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  • Tucker Barnhart

    5 9.26%
  • Drew Cisco

    0 0%
  • Jeff Fellhauer

    0 0%
  • Amir Garrett

    1 1.85%
  • Jeff Gelalich

    0 0%
  • Ryan LaMarre

    3 5.56%
  • Kyle Lotzkar

    2 3.70%
  • Donald Lutz

    11 20.37%
  • Seth Mejias-Brean

    9 16.67%
  • Jonathan Moscot

    0 0%
  • Curtis Partch

    0 0%
  • Jonathan Reynoso

    7 12.96%
  • Chad Rogers

    9 16.67%
  • Sal Romano

    0 0%
  • Gabriel Rosa

    0 0%
  • Steve Selsky

    0 0%
  • Juan Silva

    0 0%
  • Bryson Smith

    0 0%
  • David Vidal

    3 5.56%
  • Kyle Waldrop

    3 5.56%
  • Ryan Wright

    1 1.85%
  • Other (Please name)

    0 0%
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Thread: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

  1. #31
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    So obviously the Reds are high enough on Rogers to where he is invited to ST. Sam LeCure type with a better fastball and slider? Drafted in the 28th round, right?

    Rogers
    Freeman
    W De La Rosa
    Barnhart
    Hayes
    LaMarre
    Lutz
    Ravin
    Partch
    Lotzkar
    B Greene

    All could make it to AAA Louisville at some point this year?

    Nevin Ashley, I had to do some research on this guy, seems like talent is there, drafted in 6th RD by TB, could pair with Corky to C in AAA, till Barnhart comes up. Injuries last year, didn't play much, but still hit .271

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  3. #32
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    That didn't really answer the question though. What is it that Lutz isn't good at right now, things that are holding him back, that are a direct result of him beginning to play baseball at age 15?
    Pitch recognition. That's the biggest separater between hitting prospects. They all have their swing down (or should), it's now a matter of knowing what to swing at and what not to swing at. By far the hardest part of hitting pitching. I would imagine that Lutz is miles behind most players at his level on this, as experience is the only method for improvement.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  4. #33
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    I went with Reynoso for pure upside. I can see the arguments for Rogers. Not sure that I understand the Lutz love after an underwhelming 2012.

  5. #34
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    Where is Lotzkar these days in terms of health? My memory of him from last season is not strong.

  6. #35
    Arbiter of Good Taste OGB's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Pitch recognition. That's the biggest separater between hitting prospects. They all have their swing down (or should), it's now a matter of knowing what to swing at and what not to swing at. By far the hardest part of hitting pitching. I would imagine that Lutz is miles behind most players at his level on this, as experience is the only method for improvement.
    I've been following this debate and am on the side of those that think Lutz's late start is overblown at this point. As far as pitch recognition is concerned, how many non fastballs does a kid see from age 5 to 14?
    I may not be fast, but I sure am slow.

  7. #36
    Arbiter of Good Taste OGB's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    I also like Sharky at this juncture. I think we'll see really strong seasons out of both him and Barnhardt. I like his approach on the mound. With the Reds perceived SP depth for several years, I could see Chad utilized as a bullpen arm in a few seasons not out of necessity, but lack of oppurtunity as a starter. I could then see him bouncing between SP and RP until he finds his niche, ala Sam Lecure.

    That just made me think, does anyone know what Matt Maloney is doing, and if anyone has tried to make him a bullpen lefty?
    I may not be fast, but I sure am slow.

  8. #37
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by OGB View Post
    I've been following this debate and am on the side of those that think Lutz's late start is overblown at this point. As far as pitch recognition is concerned, how many non fastballs does a kid see from age 5 to 14?
    My thoughts exactly. It's a whole different ballgame when guys are throwing 90+ with a slew of breaking balls, and Lutz has been immersed in that challenge as long as any other prospect at this point. And I still think we would be seeing marked improvements in this area if it was an experience issue.

  9. #38
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    Whether his late start is relevant or not, I kind of like Lutz as a prospect. He's a big guy with plenty of power. He has OPS'd over .800 several times in his career. His OBP dropped some last season, but he did have a .561 SLG at Bakersfield.

    Then, after a rough patch upon his movement up to AA, Lutz went to the AFL and was sensational. 1.004 OPS in a short stint.

    My concern about him is that his OBP dropped at the higher levels so far. It was .325 at Bakersfield and .315 at AA. So he's not a top ten guy, but he does have a fine minor league record.

    I can see Chad Rogers as a competitor for number 13 too. His K rate has dropped througout his career, though, and I'm concerned it might be in the 5 range at the major league level. It could be hard for him to succeed as a 5 K per nine inning pitcher in the majors.

    I voted for Lutz because he's had several minor league seasons of high OPS production and, yes, I was impressed by his hot AFL stint. But it's really tough to distinguish between some of these guys. Rogers, Reynoso, Mejias-Brean, all make sense here as well.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-15-2013 at 11:45 AM.

  10. #39
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Swagger View Post
    So obviously the Reds are high enough on Rogers to where he is invited to ST. Sam LeCure type with a better fastball and slider? Drafted in the 28th round, right?

    Rogers
    Freeman
    W De La Rosa
    Barnhart
    Hayes
    LaMarre
    Lutz
    Ravin
    Partch
    Lotzkar
    B Greene

    All could make it to AAA Louisville at some point this year?

    Nevin Ashley, I had to do some research on this guy, seems like talent is there, drafted in 6th RD by TB, could pair with Corky to C in AAA, till Barnhart comes up. Injuries last year, didn't play much, but still hit .271
    Lecure K'd more guys in the minor leagues. 7.9 Ks per nine innings overall and slightly higher at AAA. And while Lecure was "only" 6'1", he was still more projectable than Rogers.

    Sam Lecure also had some dominant stretches in the high minor leagues. I don't know where the idea comes from that Chad Rogers has a "better fastball and slider" than Lecure.

    Lecure is not chopped liver, he was a successful minor league pitcher, and shows very good stuff in the Reds bullpen. I'd be thrilled if Rogers turns out as well as Sam did.

  11. #40
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Lecure K'd more guys in the minor leagues. 7.9 Ks per nine innings overall and slightly higher at AAA. And while Lecure was "only" 6'1", he was still more projectable than Rogers.

    Sam Lecure also had some dominant stretches in the high minor leagues. I don't know where the idea comes from that Chad Rogers has a "better fastball and slider" than Lecure.

    Lecure is not chopped liver, he was a successful minor league pitcher, and shows very good stuff in the Reds bullpen. I'd be thrilled if Rogers turns out as well as Sam did.
    The idea comes from the fact that Chad Rogers has a better fastball than LeCure, for sure, and also has a darn good slider (so does LeCure, so I don't know who exactly has the better one, but both are quite good). LeCure is a tad taller, but he wasn't any more projectable. Rogers has better pure stuff than LeCure has. I could see Rogers having a better career.

  12. #41
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Pitch recognition. That's the biggest separater between hitting prospects. They all have their swing down (or should), it's now a matter of knowing what to swing at and what not to swing at. By far the hardest part of hitting pitching. I would imagine that Lutz is miles behind most players at his level on this, as experience is the only method for improvement.
    You aren't seeing too many offspeed pitches in the time he missed. You absolutely aren't seeing any kind of quality offspeed pitches at those ages. I don't know, I just don't see a lack of experience through the age of 14 holding back his pitch recognition skills. And as studies have shown time and time again, if you don't have it by an early age, you probably aren't ever going to have it. Why that is, I don't have a complete idea (maybe it is due to it being more about eyesight than skillset?).

  13. #42
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The idea comes from the fact that Chad Rogers has a better fastball than LeCure, for sure, and also has a darn good slider (so does LeCure, so I don't know who exactly has the better one, but both are quite good). LeCure is a tad taller, but he wasn't any more projectable. Rogers has better pure stuff than LeCure has. I could see Rogers having a better career.
    Lecure gets more out of his stuff than anyone I've ever seen though. Rogers could theoretically be better given his fastball cranks a few ticks higher, but I wouldn't say that's an easy ticket to surpassing what Lecure's done. If he ends up in the pen, saying he's demonstrably better than Lecure is practically saying he'll be a closer type arm.

  14. #43
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Lecure gets more out of his stuff than anyone I've ever seen though. Rogers could theoretically be better given his fastball cranks a few ticks higher, but I wouldn't say that's an easy ticket to surpassing what Lecure's done. If he ends up in the pen, saying he's demonstrably better than Lecure is practically saying he'll be a closer type arm.
    Out of the bullpen, Rogers was 92-95, touching a notch higher with an above-average slider. Plenty of guys have closed with similar stuff. It isn't the exact profile of a closer, but it is a profile of a guy who could close.

    LeCure does get the most out of his stuff though. But the guy doesn't average 90 MPH with his fastball. Rogers is 90-93 as a starter and he controls it quite well.

  15. #44
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Out of the bullpen, Rogers was 92-95, touching a notch higher with an above-average slider. Plenty of guys have closed with similar stuff. It isn't the exact profile of a closer, but it is a profile of a guy who could close.

    LeCure does get the most out of his stuff though. But the guy doesn't average 90 MPH with his fastball. Rogers is 90-93 as a starter and he controls it quite well.
    I didn't realize he threw quite that hard. What do you make of his K rate? It's not bad considering the rest of his game, but do you see him maintaining that or slipping down to Leake levels as he moves forward? He's definitely an intriguing arm the more I dig into his numbers.

  16. #45
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

    I doubt his strikeout rate goes Leake/Arroyo, even if he remains a starter. If you put him in the bullpen, I see an 8+ K/9.


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