Other (Please name)
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Now, it could be that his athletic ability has been able to catch him up this far, but that will be his ceiling. Until he hits that ceiling, though, I'm liking his upside.
Think of it this way. If you had a kid with aspirations to play in the big leagues, would you advise him not to pick up a ball or bat or watch a game until he was 16?
Now, imagine you're a coach. A 16-year-old comes to you for instruction, and he's never put on a baseball glove. He's never held a bat. Are you going to start by teaching him how to inside-out a fastball to the opposite field? By showing him how to guard the line in the late innings of a one-run game? Where to line up as a cutoff man? How to pick up that red dot on the slider?
That didn't really answer the question though. What is it that Lutz isn't good at right now, things that are holding him back, that are a direct result of him beginning to play baseball at age 15?
Refer to Lutz's cycle with the Dragons for an exhibition of his athletic ability
I went with Rogers simply because I'm not sure I really believe in the other contenders at this point. I don't find a lot to dislike about Rogers. Not a star-in-waiting, but solid. I may vote for Lutz soon (if he's still on the board) because of his potential, but I'm afraid the idea of him is greater than the reality. I'd love to be proven wrong.
edit--just looked at the vote totals, and it looks like Lutz will get this spot, unless another single candidate gains momentum. That's okay; the potential is there.
Last edited by marcshoe; 01-14-2013 at 06:47 PM.
Also, just to point it out, Lutz wasn't in John Sickels Reds Top 20. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/...pects-for-2013
What is the Chad Rogers love all about? He is nowhere on ANY Top 20 prospect lists, let alone in the Top 15 in the organization. With a good year in 2013, then we can start talking about it
He has outstanding control of his fastball. As a starter, it is slightly-above average. As a reliever, it is above-average. He has an outstanding slider. He is a groundball machine. He has shown he has the stamina to start, though he will need to work with a third pitch better to remain as a starter, but at least it is a change up rather than a breaking ball.
He has shown success, even in a small sample size, in AA. He showed good success in the California League as a pitcher.
Ultimately, for me, it comes down to that he is an incredibly safe bet to be a solid Major League contributor and has some actual upside to be more than just solid. At this point on the list, his sureness is pretty nice.
Watch him pitch. He pounds the strikezone.
Rogers was on the list of Spring Training invites released today, fwiw.