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Thread: Reds roster in 2016

  1. #31
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    Re: Reds roster in 2016

    I think one of the keys to the medium term future is successfully pulling off a Tampa Bay type trade in which we unload one of our top of the rotation starters before they get crazy expensive for a good package of prospects that cheaply fill some position player holes with good young talent.

    I don't see the Reds being able to pay big money to Cueto, Bailey, Latos and Chapman in 2016. Ideally, they could get 3 of the 4 extended relatively long term and trade the other for a nice package of prospects.

    Much will depend upon how many of the Stephenson, Corcino, Cingrani, and Travieso group pan out as MLB starters and if any of them is a TOR guy. If one of the group is a high quality starter and one of the group ends up a decent middle of the rotation type, the Reds will be in great shape. They would then have the ability to retain a high quality group of starters while staying within budget constraints and also have the opportunity to replenish the prospect ranks in exchange for one of the young veterans.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Reds roster in 2016

    Bottom line is that once Hamilton graduates, the Reds don't really have any positional prospects that are all that interesting. Winker is next, but after him everyone has a bunch of question marks.

    That said, I don't think we need a Tampa style trade, unless Leake can bring back a top prospect or two once Cingrani and/or Corcino prove they can be counted on in the rotation. We'll need Cueto, Latos, Bailey (and hopefully Chapman) in order to contend for the next 2+ years. Plus, the fact that we have 4 Top 100 picks in this years draft (for the second year in a row) will hopefully go a long way towards restocking.

    If all three of the C's (Chapman, Corcino & Cingrani) reach their potential and Winker/Y-Rod aren't on the fast track, perhaps they could trade Bailey sometime in 2014 for a stud LF (or 3B if Frazier is not the answer) if Bailey wants too much money to stay long term (this of course assumes we can lock up Latos for the long term).
    Last edited by Benihana; 01-26-2013 at 07:11 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  4. #33
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    Re: Reds roster in 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Bottom line is that once Hamilton graduates, the Reds don't really have any positional prospects that are all that interesting. Winker is next, but after him everyone has a bunch of question marks.

    That said, I don't think we need a Tampa style trade, unless Leake can bring back a top prospect or two once Cingrani and/or Corcino prove they can be counted on in the rotation. We'll need Cueto, Latos, Bailey (and hopefully Chapman) in order to contend for the next 2+ years. Plus, the fact that we have 4 Top 100 picks in this years draft (for the second year in a row) will hopefully go a long way towards restocking.

    If all three of the C's (Chapman, Corcino & Cingrani) reach their potential and Winker/Y-Rod aren't on the fast track, perhaps they could trade Bailey sometime in 2014 for a stud LF (or 3B if Frazier is not the answer) if Bailey wants too much money to stay long term (this of course assumes we can lock up Latos for the long term).
    I agree with you about needing those guys the next two years, but I do think that by 2016 the Reds will have trouble paying that many front line starters at market value. Both Latos and Cueto could be in line for 20 million a year type deals. Bailey may not be too far behind them. And Chapman is a wild card who also will likely be pretty expensive. At some point, the Reds may have to make a budget friendly transaction to keep their window open beyond the next couple years.

    I think a deal like the one you mentioned for Bailey could make a lot of sense. Give big extensions to Latos and Cueto and hope you can get a Wil Myers type for Bailey with long term cost control. Replace Homer in the middle of the rotation with a guy like Stephenson.

  5. #34
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds roster in 2016

    I have to wonder if the Reds won't send Leake down to start the season and leave him down long enough to push free agency back a year. Right now Free Agency could completely change the rotation. Arroyo after 2013, Bailey after 2014, Latos, Cueto and Leake after 2015. By 2016, it may be Chapman (in his last year) with Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson and Travieso. I hope they can extend at least 2 of Bailey, Cueto and Latos, but pushing Leake's Free Agency back a year may ease the timetable on the younger arms. Roges, Guillon and a few of the others beyond the big 4 of Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson and Travieso will probably be needed at the back end. I think its iffy whether Stephenson and Travieso will be ready by 2016 and getting another year from Leake might ease the schedule a bit.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #35
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    Re: Reds roster in 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I have to wonder if the Reds won't send Leake down to start the season and leave him down long enough to push free agency back a year. Right now Free Agency could completely change the rotation. Arroyo after 2013, Bailey after 2014, Latos, Cueto and Leake after 2015. By 2016, it may be Chapman (in his last year) with Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson and Travieso. I hope they can extend at least 2 of Bailey, Cueto and Latos, but pushing Leake's Free Agency back a year may ease the timetable on the younger arms. Roges, Guillon and a few of the others beyond the big 4 of Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson and Travieso will probably be needed at the back end. I think its iffy whether Stephenson and Travieso will be ready by 2016 and getting another year from Leake might ease the schedule a bit.
    It is possible, though the news out of the Reds Caravan seems to indicate that the Reds are planning to start Chapman out of the bullpen for the first month or two so they don't have to shut him down before the playoffs.

    I also think seeing the exact years when the pitchers become FAs backs up my point a bit that the Reds are going to have a really hard time keeping all of them while also paying pretty big money to guys like Votto, Phillips, Bruce, etc.

    A legitimate goal would be extending 2 of the 3 and getting a major league ready prospect or two for the one you can't extend.

    Stephenson should be ready after 3 more seasons in the minors. Cingrani and Corcino are going to arrive much sooner than that. I think the Reds are going to be fine with the rotation, but looking at it in terms of free agency and multiple years into the future makes it much clearer how important a guy like Stephenson is. Many wanted to move him for a guy like Denard Span. But we are going to badly need some cheap but talented starting arms in the not so distant future.

  7. #36
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds roster in 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by Drugs Delaney View Post
    It is possible, though the news out of the Reds Caravan seems to indicate that the Reds are planning to start Chapman out of the bullpen for the first month or two so they don't have to shut him down before the playoffs.

    I also think seeing the exact years when the pitchers become FAs backs up my point a bit that the Reds are going to have a really hard time keeping all of them while also paying pretty big money to guys like Votto, Phillips, Bruce, etc.

    A legitimate goal would be extending 2 of the 3 and getting a major league ready prospect or two for the one you can't extend.

    Stephenson should be ready after 3 more seasons in the minors. Cingrani and Corcino are going to arrive much sooner than that. I think the Reds are going to be fine with the rotation, but looking at it in terms of free agency and multiple years into the future makes it much clearer how important a guy like Stephenson is. Many wanted to move him for a guy like Denard Span. But we are going to badly need some cheap but talented starting arms in the not so distant future.
    I think extending them is going to be difficult. After the 2014 Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and James Shields are all due to be free agents. Those guys will probably sign deals that will reset the market for everybody. Add the TV money that is going through the roof and I sure wouldn't jump the gun and sign early if I was a pitcher due for free agency around or soon after that time. I could see Clayton, Justin and Felix each in excess of $25 Million per year for at least 5 years. Shields may be around $20 Million for 3 or 4 years. I'd guess that would put Bailey and other mid-rotation guys in the $12 to $15 Million range for a multi year deal with Latos and Cueto in the $17 to $20 Million per year range. If those guys stay healthy and progress a little bit, they could go even higher IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  8. #37
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    Re: Reds roster in 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think extending them is going to be difficult. After the 2014 Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and James Shields are all due to be free agents. Those guys will probably sign deals that will reset the market for everybody. Add the TV money that is going through the roof and I sure wouldn't jump the gun and sign early if I was a pitcher due for free agency around or soon after that time. I could see Clayton, Justin and Felix each in excess of $25 Million per year for at least 5 years. Shields may be around $20 Million for 3 or 4 years. I'd guess that would put Bailey and other mid-rotation guys in the $12 to $15 Million range for a multi year deal with Latos and Cueto in the $17 to $20 Million per year range. If those guys stay healthy and progress a little bit, they could go even higher IMO.
    Yeah, you are definitely right.

    I think the hope would be with a guy like Latos who still has so many years until he hits FA. He might be willing to give the Reds a slight discount on a year or two of his post arbitration years in exchange for the security of a long term deal. Arm injuries are so common for pitchers that locking in a guaranteed 60 or 70 million for 5 years (3 of which are his arb years) may be worth giving up the potential to make a little more in those last two years. He would still get a shot at a monster deal as a FA in his prime even after the 5 years. For him, he guarantees he never has to worry about money for the rest of his life. For the Reds, they get some cost certainty during the arb years and in exchange for taking the risk with all the guarantees money get to pay a bit below market.

    I think the Reds may be able to afford to spend 30 million or so a year on their top two starters combined. Maybe even a little more. But there is very little chance they are going to be able to devote 60 or 70 million to the starting rotation. There absolutely must be some cheap cost controlled young starters in the rotation at all times.


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