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Thread: 2013 ZiPS Projections

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    2013 ZiPS Projections

    Dan Szymborksi's 2013 ZiPS projections are being released on FanGraphs this year, and they posted the Reds this morning:

    Something of which people never tire is to learn that there is both good news and also that there’s bad news. The bad news, in the case of the Cincinnati Reds, appears to be — at least so far as Dan Szymborski’s finely calibrated ZiPS projection system is concerned — appears to be that newly acquired Shin-Soo Choo is probably a pretty bad defensive center fielder. The good news, though, is that he’s still expected to be worth about three wins in 2013 — i.e. more than he produced in either 2011 or -12.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ncinnati-reds/
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    Man, if Todd Frazier even sniffs those projections I'll be stoked.

    -Matt

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    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    Don't like the Ludwick projection, though it's not terrible. Zips as a whole, stink IMO. Always too pessimistic.
    "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."

    -Hunter S. Thompson

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco View Post
    Don't like the Ludwick projection, though it's not terrible. Zips as a whole, stink IMO. Always too pessimistic.
    ZiPS usually grades out near the top in correlation to real life amongst the projection systems because it so heavily regresses people to the mean. That's what makes for an accurate projection system--get all the people in the middle right and don't worry about the outliers...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    I ran the numbers from ZIPS through my calculator, adjusting playing time for a few guys to make the numbers add up, and came up with the following:

    Offense
    Runs:738
    R/G: 4.56

    Pitching
    Runs: 684
    RA/G: 4.22

    W-L: 87-75 (.538%)

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...UU2lUZ0E#gid=8
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I ran the numbers from ZIPS through my calculator, adjusting playing time for a few guys to make the numbers add up, and came up with the following:

    Offense
    Runs:738
    R/G: 4.56

    Pitching
    Runs: 684
    RA/G: 4.22

    W-L: 87-75 (.538%)

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...UU2lUZ0E#gid=8
    C'mon Rick, you need to preface that with a "SPOILER ALERT".

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by mattfeet View Post
    Man, if Todd Frazier even sniffs those projections I'll be stoked.

    -Matt
    Wouldn't really be much of a surprise if he did, IMO.

    ZIPS has him projected to OPS .754 and hit 21 HR in 552 plate appearances. In 2012, Frazier posted an .829 OPS and hit 19 HR in 465 plate appearances.

    I think 20-25 HR's and an OPS of .800 or higher is a fair projection for Frazier.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I ran the numbers from ZIPS through my calculator, adjusting playing time for a few guys to make the numbers add up, and came up with the following:

    Offense
    Runs:738
    R/G: 4.56

    Pitching
    Runs: 684
    RA/G: 4.22

    W-L: 87-75 (.538%)

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...UU2lUZ0E#gid=8
    Where does "Dusty Magic" factor in though?

  10. #9
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    Personally, I liked the part where they say who the #1 comp is for each player.

    Cueto = Roy Halladay (I wish!)
    Chad Reineke = RA Dickey (?!?) I think somebody needs to upgrade their Commodore64 cuz that don't compute.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  11. #10
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Personally, I liked the part where they say who the #1 comp is for each player.

    Cueto = Roy Halladay (I wish!)
    Chad Reineke = RA Dickey (?!?) I think somebody needs to upgrade their Commodore64 cuz that don't compute.
    The comp is RA Dickey are the same age, not RA Dickey today.

  12. #11
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    After some of the discussions we've had this offseason, I'm pleased to see 3 WAR projected for Mr. Cozart.

  13. #12
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    Even conservatively, this is looking like a very strong pitching staff, health provided.
    "I’ll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. That’s just how I do things.” -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    You guys do realize that if Whitey Herzog was managing this team - he'd have Hamilton get 600 AB's in CF while starting Bruce in Right and Shoo in left - Ludwick would come off the bench and play against left handers.

    He's live with the mistakes that Hamilton would make for the sake of just making the other team jittery.

    I believe Whitey would be on to something. The league has gotten awful comfortable with not having to really deal with a guy that can steal a base.

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    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The comp is RA Dickey are the same age, not RA Dickey today.
    So we can expect big things from Chad in about seven years!
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

  16. #15
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The comp is RA Dickey are the same age, not RA Dickey today.
    Doug, don't go spoiling a perfectly good rant with logic. What the hell?
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG


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