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Thread: Hamilton to start in AAA....

  1. #16
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    What does anyone think about a Kenny Lofton comp for Billy? that would be a-m-a-z-i-n-g. Billy's already got similar minors (perhaps better) numbers to him, except more steals and more k's.

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  3. #17
    Member medford's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    So lets say Hamilton is facing a lefty, is he techincally allowed to drag bunt to the 3rd base line? I mean are you allowed to start that way, then cut across the plate towards 1b? I'll assume the answer is no, but then again there's never been a player fast enough to execute that manuver, so its not like it would matter if its legal or not. If legal, is Billy fast enough to do so? I don't know if a drag bunt is any easier than a "normal" bunt; just something that crossed my mind as a potential "hamilton legend" like the time he picked off a flyball on the warning track in left-center.

  4. #18
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Here's to hoping Hamilton actually is the player Dusty desperately (and stubbornly) wanted Stubbs to be.
    And Willie T.


    If it works we'll finally see the plan come together for Dusty.

  5. #19
    Member medford's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    Billy Hamilton's success will hinge on learning the Jedi mind tricks that good runners use on pitchers and defenders.

    On simple ground balls, if Billy runs them out, even the best defenders will want to rush throws to first base. That will lead to fielding and/or throwing errors, and perhaps a few infield hits. And once Billy gets on first base, he can learn to dance around and distract the pitcher into committing balks and making mistakes to the hitters. Defenses will tend to play in and fielders will cheat toward the second and third base bags, which will create holes in the infield.

    I want to see Hamilton work on the mental part of the game, where just the threat of him running can disrupt the pitching and defense. That part of his game won't show up in box scores, but it ought to be sweet for the 2-3-4 hitters in the line-up.
    I like that thinking. I haven't seen him play since he was in Dayton, but I've got assume at this point he never just "assumes" any grounder is an "easy out" and he's hustling to 1st on just about every grounder b/c he knows there's a chance he gets there safe w/ just the slightest hesitation or bobble.

  6. #20
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    What does anyone think about a Kenny Lofton comp for Billy? that would be a-m-a-z-i-n-g. Billy's already got similar minors (perhaps better) numbers to him, except more steals and more k's.
    They were different ages at different levels in the minors, so it isn't an easy comparison, but Lofton made a decent amount of more contact than Hamilton has in the minors. Hamilton struck out 19% of the time he stepped to the plate last year and is at 20.4% for his career. Lofton, in the minors, was at 16.4% for his career (that is roughly 20% better than Hamilton has been thus far) and in the Majors was at just 11%. If Hamilton could get his K rate down below 15%, I would be thrilled. If it got to 11%, we may all be dancing in the streets. I just don't know that he has that kind of change in him. We will see, but for now, I don't know that the comp to Lofton works.

  7. #21
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    They were different ages at different levels in the minors, so it isn't an easy comparison, but Lofton made a decent amount of more contact than Hamilton has in the minors. Hamilton struck out 19% of the time he stepped to the plate last year and is at 20.4% for his career. Lofton, in the minors, was at 16.4% for his career (that is roughly 20% better than Hamilton has been thus far) and in the Majors was at just 11%. If Hamilton could get his K rate down below 15%, I would be thrilled. If it got to 11%, we may all be dancing in the streets. I just don't know that he has that kind of change in him. We will see, but for now, I don't know that the comp to Lofton works.
    Good point. I think his K rate may be the most important number to look at in AAA this year.

  8. #22
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    And Willie T.


    If it works we'll finally see the plan come together for Dusty.
    Be careful with that comp. Hamilton's skill set isn't all that different from Taveras'. He's got better plate discipline, but I'm not sure we can expect him to show the 10-15 HR power than Lofton. Given that pitcher's will be very wary to walk him, if he doesn't show he can handle hard stuff in the zone, his actual walk rate in the majors may not reflect his willingness to take a walk.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #23
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    I don't think it's possible to bunt your way out of a slump, is it? Yeah, Billy will need to show some fight at the plate for sure. What I love is that he's shown how savvy he is.

  10. #24
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    here's a neat break down on bunting with nobody on base:

    http://uzrillusion2.blogspot.com/201...g-for-hit.html


    There's even a Juan Pierre discussion. And Willie T shows up for his 3 for 22 performance bunting in 2009!
    I'm absolutely STUNNED to see Mickey Mantle on that list. Just blown away.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
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  11. #25
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    I would love to see Hamilton become a proficient bunter before becoming a Red so that:

    A) He gets on base more.

    B) I don't have to hear about how he needs to become a proficient bunter.

  12. #26
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by medford View Post
    I like that thinking. I haven't seen him play since he was in Dayton, but I've got assume at this point he never just "assumes" any grounder is an "easy out" and he's hustling to 1st on just about every grounder b/c he knows there's a chance he gets there safe w/ just the slightest hesitation or bobble.
    Joe Morgan was fast, but he wasn't "Billy Hamilton" fast. But I remember some of those pre-game interviews between Joe Nuxhall and Sparky Anderson, where Sparky waxed eloquent about the advantages Joe Morgan created for the next few hitters in the line-up when Morgan was standing at first base. Between distracting the pitchers, and causing the defending infielders to play out of position in order cut down possible steal attempts, Morgan created a lot of havoc on the basepaths.

    Foster, Bench, and Perez hammered a LOT of mistake pitches from distracted pitchers. And they got a few cheap hits through holes created by out of position, and drawn in defenders.

    Deion Sanders was fast, but he did not have the baseball instincts, nor the mind games that truly great baserunners have. If Hamilton can learn the mind games, and learn some good baseball smarts, he will be a lot of fun to watch.
    Last edited by MikeS21; 01-25-2013 at 04:21 PM.
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  13. #27
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I'm absolutely STUNNED to see Mickey Mantle on that list. Just blown away.
    When Mantle broke into the majors, he was considerred the quickest player from home to first in the game, maybe ever to that point.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #28
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    A lot of people say that Hamilton's speed will force extra errors by defenders. Not to be contrary, because it makes a lot of sense, but does anyone have stats to support this?
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  15. #29
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    A lot of people say that Hamilton's speed will force extra errors by defenders. Not to be contrary, because it makes a lot of sense, but does anyone have stats to support this?
    I don't know that it would really be possible to prove. By nature, errors are mistakes made. You can't just say "oh, that was because they rushed". Maybe they did and maybe that is what happened. But maybe the ball just had funny spin. Maybe they just held onto the ball a tad too much and the throw went in the dirt. Maybe they didn't hold onto the ball enough and it sailed. Maybe the foot slipped. I just don't know where you could prove it, without asking the guys exactly what happened on every error, and attribute it to the guy running. It is just something we assume because guys "rush" things when a fast guy is running versus a catcher.

  16. #30
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    When Mantle broke into the majors, he was considerred the quickest player from home to first in the game, maybe ever to that point.
    Yes, the only comparable one was Pinson.


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