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Thread: Hamilton to start in AAA....

  1. #31
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I'm absolutely STUNNED to see Mickey Mantle on that list. Just blown away.
    He was the original mike trout.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't know that it would really be possible to prove. By nature, errors are mistakes made. You can't just say "oh, that was because they rushed". Maybe they did and maybe that is what happened. But maybe the ball just had funny spin. Maybe they just held onto the ball a tad too much and the throw went in the dirt. Maybe they didn't hold onto the ball enough and it sailed. Maybe the foot slipped. I just don't know where you could prove it, without asking the guys exactly what happened on every error, and attribute it to the guy running. It is just something we assume because guys "rush" things when a fast guy is running versus a catcher.
    Random fluxations aside. Typical major leaguer reaches base on average 10 times a season because of an error (making up numbers). If the speed causes an increase (for whatever reason) a guy like Rickey Henderson would have been averaged 15 or more times a year. I'm just making up numbers, but with a career by career comparison we should see some movement from the mean.

    I think it would be worth someone that is more involved in the world of SABR to come up with some numbers. How often a player A is involved in a play that an error occurs vs player B. The error could be attributed to anything, I just want to see some raw numbers. The whole his speed causes this and that makes sense, but there has to be some way to give it an actual weight.
    Last edited by thatcoolguy_22; 01-30-2013 at 11:43 AM.
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  4. #33
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    Random fluxations aside. Typical major leaguer reaches base on average 10 times a season because of an error (making up numbers). If the speed causes an increase (for whatever reason) a guy like Rickey Henderson would have been averaged 15 or more times a year. I'm just making up numbers, but with a career by career comparison we should see some movement from the mean.

    I think it would be worth someone that is more involved in the world of SABR to come up with some numbers. How often a player A is involved in a play that an error occurs vs player B. The error could be attributed to anything, I just want to see some raw numbers. The whole his speed causes this and that makes sense, but there has to be some way to give it an actual weight.
    I don't think you can look at a raw number and come to any sort of conclusion. The reason I say this is because there is a big discrepancy in how many balls each batter puts into play each year due to walks, strikeouts and home runs.
    However, I did look at a statistic that could shed some light on this. It is the percentage of times a player reaches base when he hits a ground ball. Over the past five years in the National League there were 155,407 grounders hit. 3,916 runners reached base on error during those ground balls. This works out to 2.52 runners reaching for every 100 balls hit on the ground. This does include pitchers. I would say if you could somehow just get the stats on position players, the number would be a little higher.

    Next, I looked at a number of Cincinnati Reds from the year 2000 onward. Here is that chart:

    Code:
    PLAYER	GB	ROE	ROE/100
    			
    Heisey	210	9	4.29
    Edwin   975	37	3.79
    Stubbs	556	19	3.42
    Ludwick	749	25	3.34
    Freel	768	24	3.13
    LaRue	837	25	2.99
    Brandon	1870	54	2.89
    Rolen	2140	61	2.85
    Hanigan	502	13	2.59
    Votto	844	21	2.49
    Casey	2087	47	2.25
    Bruce	684	15	2.19
    Dunn	1331	23	1.73
    			
    			
    TOT-F	13553	373	2.75
    1) The average for these players is 2.75 ROE per 100 ground balls. This is probably close to what you would have if you just looked at position players.
    2) Chris Heisey can probably be ignored due to sample size.
    3) Some of the faster players are near the top and some of the slower players are near the bottom. It is not definitive by any means.
    4) There is not a huge range. Most players hit around 150 grounders a year. The difference between the top and bottom is about 2 grounders per 100. That would extrapolate out to about 3 more times the highest (not fastest) reach base on an error in the course of a season than the lowest.
    5) I was looking at the list and wondering why Hanigan would be higher than Votto and Bruce. Dunn and Casey at the bottom of the list, okay. But, surely, Bruce and Votto are faster runners than Ryan Hanigan. And then it struck me that all four of the lefties are at the bottom of the list. This makes sense if you think about it. Lefties are more likely to hit to the right side of the infield. And because it is a shorter throw, fielders have more time to make up for bobbling the baseball. Whereas, if a shortstop or third baseman bobbles the ball they had better react quickly to still record the out. So, maybe, handedness is a more important factor than speed.

    Obviously, this is a small sample size to look at. If I get time later I may take 10 random players from each side of the plate and see how that works out.
    Last edited by texasdave; 01-31-2013 at 02:25 PM.
    A summer watching a bad Reds' team, is still a pretty good summer.

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  6. #34
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Thanks texasdave.

    If you add this to the thought that Billy will be drag bunting from the left side of the plate to the left side of the infield, he could find an uncommon amount of success at this. His ROE numbers may be higher, or they may be the same as players will just give up on the play too.

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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't know that it would really be possible to prove. By nature, errors are mistakes made. You can't just say "oh, that was because they rushed". Maybe they did and maybe that is what happened. But maybe the ball just had funny spin. Maybe they just held onto the ball a tad too much and the throw went in the dirt. Maybe they didn't hold onto the ball enough and it sailed. Maybe the foot slipped. I just don't know where you could prove it, without asking the guys exactly what happened on every error, and attribute it to the guy running. It is just something we assume because guys "rush" things when a fast guy is running versus a catcher.
    You'd almost have to break this into 2 categories... new errors, and capitalizing on errors that have already occurred. It goes without saying that speed forces errors, because it capitalizes on them, I can picture quite a few times where a shortstop bobbles or drops a ball hit by Bo Diaz...only to then pick it up and throw him out anyway, it's only an error if the runner gains something from it. Just like a player would get more infield hits due to speed, he'd get more infield errors, without having a "new" error exist.

  8. #36
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    It seems we have a comp for Hamilton... Vince Coleman. it was their age 21 seasons in which each set the SB record, so there is the age comp, though Hamilton set his at higher levels. Hamilton K'd more, but he also BB'd more. He also played about 20 more games, so the rates probably even out quite a bit. Were the parks Hamilton playing in more conducive to triples, or was/is he more willing to take that third base than Coleman was?

    Hamilton's K rate improved from 2011 to 2012.. and his OBP at two levels last year was incredibly consistent. If he manages to knock another 15 K's off his total in 2013 while continuing to post near .400 OBP's, i'll say we have to start believing he just might be the real deal.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #37
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    It seems we have a comp for Hamilton... Vince Coleman. it was their age 21 seasons in which each set the SB record, so there is the age comp, though Hamilton set his at higher levels. Hamilton K'd more, but he also BB'd more. He also played about 20 more games, so the rates probably even out quite a bit. Were the parks Hamilton playing in more conducive to triples, or was/is he more willing to take that third base than Coleman was?

    Hamilton's K rate improved from 2011 to 2012.. and his OBP at two levels last year was incredibly consistent. If he manages to knock another 15 K's off his total in 2013 while continuing to post near .400 OBP's, i'll say we have to start believing he just might be the real deal.
    Vince Coleman is one of those players that is hard to imagine being an All Star when you go back and look at his numbers. He stole a lot of bases, yes; but his success rate was bad enough to be counterproductive in a lot of years.

    His OBP was just okay in most years and he had very little power. In hindsight, he just doesn't look like a very good player.

  10. #38
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    The Coleman comp is interesting. Coleman had one eally great minor league season-- his age 21 season in high A. Beyond that, he was merely decent, but had a ton of speed.

    Perhaps Hamilton does the same. If he hits next season in AAA, however, like he hit last season in AA and High A, he's proven himself better than Coleman.

    I do think Vincent Van Go is his floor, at this point. Though I also believe Hamilton already has the better power and hit tools, and he should play much better defense if he continues as Red scouts believe he will.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  11. #39
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    The Coleman comp is interesting. Coleman had one eally great minor league season-- his age 21 season in high A. Beyond that, he was merely decent, but had a ton of speed.

    Perhaps Hamilton does the same. If he hits next season in AAA, however, like he hit last season in AA and High A, he's proven himself better than Coleman.

    I do think Vincent Van Go is his floor, at this point. Though I also believe Hamilton already has the better power and hit tools, and he should play much better defense if he continues as Red scouts believe he will.
    I love me some Billy Hamilton, but Coleman is not his floor. Vince had a 13 year career, won rookie of the year, made two all star games, and is one of only six men in the history of baseball to steal 750 bases. That is one hell of a floor.

    Hamilton's floor is that he turns into Joey Gathright and flops completely. Even the best prospects flop sometimes, and speedy guys with no power have less margin for error than most. I don't think it is likely that Billy will be THAT bad, but saying Coleman is his floor is ludicrous.

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  13. #40
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    Re: Hamilton to start in AAA....

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I'm absolutely STUNNED to see Mickey Mantle on that list. Just blown away.
    He used to love to bunt with two strikes. Wrote about it in his autobiography.


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