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I think it would be worth someone that is more involved in the world of SABR to come up with some numbers. How often a player A is involved in a play that an error occurs vs player B. The error could be attributed to anything, I just want to see some raw numbers. The whole his speed causes this and that makes sense, but there has to be some way to give it an actual weight.
Last edited by thatcoolguy_22; 01-30-2013 at 10:43 AM.
We found your stolen Prius, it was voting for Ralph Nader.
However, I did look at a statistic that could shed some light on this. It is the percentage of times a player reaches base when he hits a ground ball. Over the past five years in the National League there were 155,407 grounders hit. 3,916 runners reached base on error during those ground balls. This works out to 2.52 runners reaching for every 100 balls hit on the ground. This does include pitchers. I would say if you could somehow just get the stats on position players, the number would be a little higher.
Next, I looked at a number of Cincinnati Reds from the year 2000 onward. Here is that chart:
1) The average for these players is 2.75 ROE per 100 ground balls. This is probably close to what you would have if you just looked at position players.Code:PLAYER GB ROE ROE/100 Heisey 210 9 4.29 Edwin 975 37 3.79 Stubbs 556 19 3.42 Ludwick 749 25 3.34 Freel 768 24 3.13 LaRue 837 25 2.99 Brandon 1870 54 2.89 Rolen 2140 61 2.85 Hanigan 502 13 2.59 Votto 844 21 2.49 Casey 2087 47 2.25 Bruce 684 15 2.19 Dunn 1331 23 1.73 TOT-F 13553 373 2.75
2) Chris Heisey can probably be ignored due to sample size.
3) Some of the faster players are near the top and some of the slower players are near the bottom. It is not definitive by any means.
4) There is not a huge range. Most players hit around 150 grounders a year. The difference between the top and bottom is about 2 grounders per 100. That would extrapolate out to about 3 more times the highest (not fastest) reach base on an error in the course of a season than the lowest.
5) I was looking at the list and wondering why Hanigan would be higher than Votto and Bruce. Dunn and Casey at the bottom of the list, okay. But, surely, Bruce and Votto are faster runners than Ryan Hanigan. And then it struck me that all four of the lefties are at the bottom of the list. This makes sense if you think about it. Lefties are more likely to hit to the right side of the infield. And because it is a shorter throw, fielders have more time to make up for bobbling the baseball. Whereas, if a shortstop or third baseman bobbles the ball they had better react quickly to still record the out. So, maybe, handedness is a more important factor than speed.
Obviously, this is a small sample size to look at. If I get time later I may take 10 random players from each side of the plate and see how that works out.
Last edited by texasdave; 01-31-2013 at 01:25 PM.
A watched plot never thickens.
If you add this to the thought that Billy will be drag bunting from the left side of the plate to the left side of the infield, he could find an uncommon amount of success at this. His ROE numbers may be higher, or they may be the same as players will just give up on the play too.
It seems we have a comp for Hamilton... Vince Coleman. it was their age 21 seasons in which each set the SB record, so there is the age comp, though Hamilton set his at higher levels. Hamilton K'd more, but he also BB'd more. He also played about 20 more games, so the rates probably even out quite a bit. Were the parks Hamilton playing in more conducive to triples, or was/is he more willing to take that third base than Coleman was?
Hamilton's K rate improved from 2011 to 2012.. and his OBP at two levels last year was incredibly consistent. If he manages to knock another 15 K's off his total in 2013 while continuing to post near .400 OBP's, i'll say we have to start believing he just might be the real deal.
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
The eyes never lie.
His OBP was just okay in most years and he had very little power. In hindsight, he just doesn't look like a very good player.
The Coleman comp is interesting. Coleman had one eally great minor league season-- his age 21 season in high A. Beyond that, he was merely decent, but had a ton of speed.
Perhaps Hamilton does the same. If he hits next season in AAA, however, like he hit last season in AA and High A, he's proven himself better than Coleman.
I do think Vincent Van Go is his floor, at this point. Though I also believe Hamilton already has the better power and hit tools, and he should play much better defense if he continues as Red scouts believe he will.
"You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
-- Christy Matthewson
"Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
-- Leo Durocher
Hamilton's floor is that he turns into Joey Gathright and flops completely. Even the best prospects flop sometimes, and speedy guys with no power have less margin for error than most. I don't think it is likely that Billy will be THAT bad, but saying Coleman is his floor is ludicrous.
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