Are ST Stats More Or Less Worthless Than AAA Stats? - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

Far East · 03-22-2006, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flyer85

(from another thread)I believe they have a better in house solution in Denorfia. The guy hit 20 HRs with a .390 OBP last year.

Which leads to the question about which is a better prediction of later big league success, a player's AAA performance or his spring showing?

A.There are arguments for AAA's being a better indicator because it is a much larger sample and is against "regular season" -- albeit minor league -- competition.

B.There are arguments for ST stats because they have come against major leaguers in addition to minor leaguers -- albeit from a much shorter playing time, and they are attained at the player's current age, maturity level, and experience -- unlike last season's "history".

For example, Denorfia's Florida numbers to date:

AB HR RBI AVG SLG
46 0 2 .283 .370

Are there some historical data to support either AAA or ST as being superior to the other as indicators?

BRM · 03-22-2006, 10:48 AM

The minor league numbers are a better indicator for me simply due to sample size. However, ST stats can be used to complement those minor league numbers. When a player like EE puts up good numbers in AAA and then follows it up with back-to-back solid springs, it's a very good sign for future success.

TOBTTReds · 03-22-2006, 11:23 AM

ST has very little significance I think for one main reason. Small sample. Especially pitchers.

Far East · 03-22-2006, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AvesIce51

ST has very little significance I think for one main reason. Small sample. Especially pitchers.

Another possible dark horse CF candidate may be DeWayne Wise, whose spring appears to be an extreme exception both to his recent past AAA and his career Major League numbers:

******** AB HR RBI SLG AVG

'05 AAA ** 384 8 45 .354 .234

ML Career ** 296 9 30 .372 .203

'06 Spring ** 38 4 7 .816 .342

KearnsyEars · 03-22-2006, 11:26 AM

Yeah they're pretty worthless. That doesn't mean I don't check the box score EVERY single day though.

IslandRed · 03-22-2006, 12:08 PM

Anyone who's even marginally capable of being a big-leaguer can look like a good big-leaguer over 50 at-bats. Even more so in spring training, where a lot of at-bats are coming against less than the other team's best. If I'm going to give credence to a hot spring, I need to know the underlying reasons that explain the improvement. If there aren't any, then all that's going to happen is that the player will regress to his normal level over the long regular season.

Minor-league equivalencies aren't an exact science either but if a guy's logged enough time in the high minors a team should have at least a ballpark (pardon the pun) idea of what to expect.

RedsManRick · 03-22-2006, 12:14 PM

With a significant sample size you can compare one line of stats to another and make the necessary transforations (ie. .300 in AAA = .275 in the majors). With an insignificant sample you can't draw any conclusions really.

TeamBoone · 03-22-2006, 11:50 PM

Several things can skew ST stats big time. Position players and pitchers may be trying things they wouldn't ordinarily do in an AAA game.

That's what spring training is all about... working on things you don't do well, tweaking things you do well, and trying new things.

KronoRed · 03-22-2006, 11:54 PM

Unless someone goes hit less, I wouldn't pay attention to them

TOBTTReds · 03-23-2006, 10:12 AM

Yeah, even though im not on the ST numbers bandwagon, I sure like what Andy Abad has been doing. Did anyone who watched last night think he swing resembles Ichiro's??? Either way, he hit the ball real solid three times up and has been doing well all spring. Where does that put him? not sure.

flyer85 · 03-23-2006, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AvesIce51

Yeah, even though im not on the ST numbers bandwagon, I sure like what Andy Abad has been doing. Did anyone who watched last night think he swing resembles Ichiro's??? Either way, he hit the ball real solid three times up and has been doing well all spring. Where does that put him? not sure.

... on a bus to Louisville.

Far East · 03-23-2006, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AvesIce51

Yeah, even though im not on the ST numbers bandwagon, I sure like what Andy Abad has been doing. Did anyone who watched last night think he swing resembles Ichiro's??? Either way, he hit the ball real solid three times up and has been doing well all spring. Where does that put him? not sure.

Abad's spring so far:

AB HR RBI OBP SLG OBP

34 2 6 .463 .559 1.022

And he's played 1B and LF!!

BRM · 03-23-2006, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Far East

Abad's spring so far:

AB HR RBI OBP SLG OBP

34 2 6 .463 .559 1.022

And he's played 1B and LF!!

He might be a better option than Hatteberg!!

KronoRed · 03-23-2006, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BRM

He might be a better option than Hatteberg!!

So are you

Far East · 03-23-2006, 07:02 PM

Another Red outfielder impressing -- at least a Yahoo sportswriter -- with his 29 Florida at bats.

From Yahoo Sports:

"Despite being in Reds' minor league camp, Buchanan has had a big spring -- a .552 average (16-of-29), six doubles, a homer and 11 RBIs. His average is second only to the Cubs' Aramis Ramirez among all major leaguers with 20 or more at-bats."

03-22-2006, 10:48 AM	#2
BRM Let's ride Join Date: May 2004 Location: Colorado's eastern plains Posts: 11,232	Re: Are ST Stats More Or Less Worthless Than AAA Stats? The minor league numbers are a better indicator for me simply due to sample size. However, ST stats can be used to complement those minor league numbers. When a player like EE puts up good numbers in AAA and then follows it up with back-to-back solid springs, it's a very good sign for future success.

03-22-2006, 11:23 AM	#3
TOBTTReds Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Cincinnati Posts: 3,731	Re: Are ST Stats More Or Less Worthless Than AAA Stats? ST has very little significance I think for one main reason. Small sample. Especially pitchers.

03-22-2006, 11:26 AM	#5
KearnsyEars Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Columbus, Ohio Posts: 1,579	Re: Are ST Stats More Or Less Worthless Than AAA Stats? Yeah they're pretty worthless. That doesn't mean I don't check the box score EVERY single day though.

03-22-2006, 12:08 PM	#6
IslandRed Charlie Brown All-Star Join Date: May 2001 Location: Mt. Juliet, TN Posts: 4,681	Re: Are ST Stats More Or Less Worthless Than AAA Stats? Anyone who's even marginally capable of being a big-leaguer can look like a good big-leaguer over 50 at-bats. Even more so in spring training, where a lot of at-bats are coming against less than the other team's best. If I'm going to give credence to a hot spring, I need to know the underlying reasons that explain the improvement. If there aren't any, then all that's going to happen is that the player will regress to his normal level over the long regular season. Minor-league equivalencies aren't an exact science either but if a guy's logged enough time in the high minors a team should have at least a ballpark (pardon the pun) idea of what to expect. __________________ "I don't have a baseball team, I have a theological seminary." -- Charlie Brown

03-22-2006, 12:14 PM	#7
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,987	Re: Are ST Stats More Or Less Worthless Than AAA Stats? With a significant sample size you can compare one line of stats to another and make the necessary transforations (ie. .300 in AAA = .275 in the majors). With an insignificant sample you can't draw any conclusions really. __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

03-22-2006, 11:50 PM	#8
TeamBoone "Let's Roll" Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: Cincinnati Posts: 12,828	Re: Are ST Stats More Or Less Worthless Than AAA Stats? Several things can skew ST stats big time. Position players and pitchers may be trying things they wouldn't ordinarily do in an AAA game. That's what spring training is all about... working on things you don't do well, tweaking things you do well, and trying new things. __________________ "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

03-22-2006, 11:54 PM	#9
KronoRed The Lineups stink. Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: West N. Carolina Posts: 55,349	Re: Are ST Stats More Or Less Worthless Than AAA Stats? Unless someone goes hit less, I wouldn't pay attention to them __________________ Go Gators!

03-23-2006, 10:12 AM	#10
TOBTTReds Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Cincinnati Posts: 3,731	Re: Are ST Stats More Or Less Worthless Than AAA Stats? Yeah, even though im not on the ST numbers bandwagon, I sure like what Andy Abad has been doing. Did anyone who watched last night think he swing resembles Ichiro's??? Either way, he hit the ball real solid three times up and has been doing well all spring. Where does that put him? not sure.

03-23-2006, 07:02 PM	#15
Far East Member Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Maryland Posts: 1,375	Re: Are ST Stats More Or Less Worthless Than AAA Stats? Another Red outfielder impressing -- at least a Yahoo sportswriter -- with his 29 Florida at bats. From Yahoo Sports: "Despite being in Reds' minor league camp, Buchanan has had a big spring -- a .552 average (16-of-29), six doubles, a homer and 11 RBIs. His average is second only to the Cubs' Aramis Ramirez among all major leaguers with 20 or more at-bats."

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