Chris Denorfia Projections for this season and the future...

[crazybob60]

I am not sure if this has been posted before, but I am curious right now as to what everyone believes (now when I say that I mean what you really think he will do, not what you wish he will do or whatever) Chris Denorfia's stats may be for the rest of this season and this to throw a curveball in there just for fun, what you think he will put up say for his career. Will he develop into a great power hitter, more of an average hitter and get a ton of hits, or will he be a utility-type player and be known for speed? I know it is hard to predict these things, but let's just take a roll of the dice. So to get things started, I know that they are sometimes way off, but here is what cbs.sportsline has projected for the 2006 season for Denorfia for the rest of the way...

.282 BA 72 Hits 8 HR 33 RBI 5 SB

My projections...

2006 Season
.295 BA 90 Hits 15 HR 52 RBI 10 SB

Career (I hope I don't get bombed here and are totally off)
.315 BA 2,368 Hits 256 HR 1,199 RBI 350 SB

If I had to name a player who I think he will resemble, I would have to say a Craig Biggio type. Not a guy who is known for say being a five-tool player, but also not one that is known for powers and/or speed or anything of the like. Just a good all around player who hits for average the majority of the time. Now I am sure this type of topic has been beaten to death, I just hope I have taken a different spin on this one hopefully.

[gonelong]

Originally Posted by crazybob60

Career (I hope I don't get bombed here and are totally off)
.315 BA 2,368 Hits 256 HR 1,799 RBI 350 SB

1799 RBI would put him at 17th all time ... a likely HOFer.

I don't see that.

GL

[crazybob60]

Originally Posted by gonelong

1799 RBI would put him at 17th all time ... a likely HOFer.

I don't see that.

GL

Hey GL, thanks for pointing that out....I have fixed the problem in my original post and now the RBI numbers are correct. I pressed the wrong button. Sorry bout that folks. I meant to have 1199 RBI's and not 1799 RBI's. I would think he would have a lot more HR's than just 256 if he had 1799 RBI's. But although it wouldn't be totally unthinkable just a tad different in my opinion.

[buckeyenut]

I think you are high on the HRs for this year and long term. Here is my guess.

Career
.287 BA 1,200 Hits 105 HR 520 RBI 175 SB

[Far East]

I know that his AAA stats are good, but I wonder about how well he'll do in the majors.

I'm bothered by that batting stance -- flat bat with little or no cocking of the bat before striding -- it looks so defensive, and most swings look too much like a protect the plate two-strike swing.

I know that looks are sometimes deceiving, and that you can't always trust intuition, but I believe it was the Braves' commentator (former pitcher?) who last week expressed the opinion that fastballs above 89(?) mph would probably give Chris a problem. I hope that we're both wrong.

His .283 BA over his first 60 big league ABs is far above what I would have expected. So I have been wrong so far. My hunch is that he is such a gifted athlete that he's succeeding in spite of the stance, not because of it. If he lasts long enough, maybe he'll change it to a more classic stance, ala the young Frank Robinson as he matured.

[Redhook]

Originally Posted by crazybob60

.282 BA 72 Hits 8 HR 33 RBI 5 SB

My projections...

2006 Season
.295 BA 90 Hits 15 HR 52 RBI 10 SB

I think the former projections are pretty good, still a little high for home runs. I just don't see him hitting 15 homers in the second of this season, or maybe ever. Or driving in 52 runs. That's really, really high. He only hit 4 homers this year in AAA in 70 games. I like the way he plays the game, but he's not going to hit many homers. Personally, I could care less how many home runs he hits as long as he gets on base alot, scores alot of runs, and plays great defense. I think he's very capable of that.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by Redhook

I think the former projections are pretty good, still a little high for home runs. I just don't see him hitting 15 homers in the second of this season, or maybe ever. Or driving in 52 runs. That's really, really high. He only hit 4 homers this year in AAA in 70 games. I like the way he plays the game, but he's not going to hit many homers. Personally, I could care less how many home runs he hits as long as he gets on base alot, scores alot of runs, and plays great defense. I think he's very capable of that.

I hope so but sometimes young guys like him start to bulk up when they reach the majors. They know that you do not get paid for OBP. You get paid to hit home runs. I cannot blame them for thinking that. I think that is kind of what happened to Kearns. I think he bulked up to increase his power and he lost a step defensively.

The question is can we live with a guy like Denorfia in RF who plays great defense but may not put up the numbers Kearns did. We already replaced FeLo and his offense, even though it was down from last year, with a couple of black holes. Hopefully next year we will see Phillips move to SS and one of the two black holes gone.

[boognish]

Originally Posted by Chip R

The question is can we live with a guy like Denorfia in RF who plays great defense but may not put up the numbers Kearns did. We already replaced FeLo and his offense, even though it was down from last year, with a couple of black holes. Hopefully next year we will see Phillips move to SS and one of the two black holes gone.

I think we can live with it, but with much gnashing of teeth as to Griffey being better suited for a corner OF position and Denorfia better suited for CF...Dunn to 1B...Phillips to SS...

Does anyone agree with me that only EE is at his optimal position (considering only players who will be brought back in 2007?)

As for Denorfia, I would be VERY happy with .265/.360/.410 for the remainder of the year. Basically, hoping for Freel-like production with more power.

[RBA]

I'll go with .252 and 5 Homeruns for 2006.

[RBA]

Originally Posted by RBA

I'll go with .252 and 5 Homeruns for 2006.

I guess I thought he would be playing more.

Let's make it .252 and 1 Homerun for 2006.

[Steve4192]

Went and checked my copy of Baseball Prospectus 2006 and here is their PECOTA projection for Denorfia.

516 AB, 64 RS, 13 HR, 57 RBI, 262 BA, 335 OBP, 413 SLG, 748 OPS, 40 XBH, 48 BB, 99 SO

I think those percentage numbers look about right. However, since Deno is only going to be starting for three months, you can probably cut those aggregate numbers in half.

[Spring~Fields]

I am not sure how he will do in a platoon or part-time situation at this level as it appears that may be the roll he is in for the time being. I am also a bit concerned that he was tossed into a slight pressure situation at lead off instead of hitting lower in the order until he was more comfortable with the pitching at this level.

[Dunner44]

I can definitely live with Chris's production in the lineup. His numbers are comprable to what a Freel would give us in the outfield. High average, good OBP, not a lot of power. but that is fine for your lead off hitter. With a catcher in Ross who was swatting the ball very well before his injury/slump, we can find the home runs in other places... just not from the SS position

I wonder what working full time with CC will do for Deno? If anyone picks up on his crappy stance, Chambliss will, and I don't know if it will be fixed during the season, but certianly in the off-season.

[StillFunkyB]

Originally Posted by crazybob60

If I had to name a player who I think he will resemble, I would have to say a Craig Biggio type. Not a guy who is known for say being a five-tool player, but also not one that is known for powers and/or speed or anything of the like. Just a good all around player who hits for average the majority of the time.

I think that is exactly what WK, and JN are talking about when they say he's a "baseball player".