Baseball America's New Top 25 Prospect List includes Bailey, Bruce

[jmcclain19]

Baseball America released their mid season Top 25 prospects list today, and two Reds players find themselves on it.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/onlin...es/261965.html

If want to read the whole list, you've got to go shell out some greenbacks to Baseball America

10. Homer Bailey, rhp Reds 6-5, 2.67 (AA) Best Reds pitching prospect since Mario Soto?

15. Jay Bruce, of Reds .322/.388/.581 (Lo A) Not far behind Upton/Maybin duo in Midwest League.

Joey Votto was listed in the "Just missing the cut" list of 15 or so players, meaning he's likely a Top 50 prospect at the end of the year.

[Benihana]

I would love to know the rest of the top 15

[TOBTTReds]

Joey Votto was on the "Just missing the cut" list.

[guttle11]

Just for kicks, where do they have Phillip Hughes? Seems to me Homer and Hughes have very similar numbers.

[edabbs44]

Hughes is right behind Homer.

Pretty impressive season so far for the farm. Depth is still a question mark, but the top of the system is producing. Stubbs, on the other hand...

[cincyinco]

Stubbs is def. a wildcard edabbs, but you know what? I was originally PO'd about the pick - I wanted Lincecum baaaaaad - but there are some things I like about Stubbs. His speed, his OBP, his defense.

If he could become Juan Pierre with on base skills, I would be one very happy camper.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by cincyinco

Stubbs is def. a wildcard edabbs, but you know what? I was originally PO'd about the pick - I wanted Lincecum baaaaaad - but there are some things I like about Stubbs. His speed, his OBP, his defense.

If he could become Juan Pierre with on base skills, I would be one very happy camper.

I would be disappointed if a top 10 pick's ceiling is JP with OBP. And the level where he is playing is worrying the hell out of me.

[Outshined_One]

Originally Posted by cincyinco

If he could become Juan Pierre with on base skills, I would be one very happy camper.

Considering Stubbs supposedly had some of the best power of any prospect in this draft, that would be a heck of a disappointment.

[Doc. Scott]

Originally Posted by cincyinco

Stubbs is def. a wildcard edabbs, but you know what? I was originally PO'd about the pick - I wanted Lincecum baaaaaad - but there are some things I like about Stubbs. His speed, his OBP, his defense.

If he could become Juan Pierre with on base skills, I would be one very happy camper.

Stubbs won't end up too much like Juan Pierre no matter what he does. He'll never be an extreme contact hitter, most likely. Downside is more like a Gary Pettis or Tom Goodwin, with a high upside of Carlos Beltran. You also hear names like Torii Hunter, Andy Van Slyke, Devon White, and Mike Cameron tossed around as good-case comparisons. The other direction that's possible is down Szymanski Boulevard with the strikeouts.

Now, I know that's a pretty freakishly wide range, but Stubbs' glove and speed are his only two unquestioned tools. The other three are more "under construction".

I don't think the guy's off to a terribly bad start, as power is the last tool to develop (and he is getting extra-base hits, witness the three doubles he had in one game earlier this week), but let's hope he's just not in the groove yet.

[StillFunkyB]

Originally Posted by Doc. Scott

Stubbs won't end up too much like Juan Pierre no matter what he does. He'll never be an extreme contact hitter, most likely. Downside is more like a Gary Pettis or Tom Goodwin, with a high upside of Carlos Beltran. You also hear names like Torii Hunter, Andy Van Slyke, Devon White, and Mike Cameron tossed around as good-case comparisons.

Now, I know that's a pretty freakishly wide range, but Stubbs' glove and speed are his only two unquestioned tools. The other three are more "under construction".

I don't think the guy's off to a terribly bad start, as power is the last tool to develop (and he is getting extra-base hits, witness the three doubles he had in one game earlier this week), but let's hope he's just not in the groove yet.

I'll take me an Andy Van Slyke any day of the week.

[HBP]

15. Jay Bruce, of Reds .322/.388/.581 (Lo A) Not far behind Upton/Maybin duo in Midwest League.

I can't figure out why Bruce is "behind" Maybin and Upton. Even though they were drafted higher (Maybin by what, 2 picks?), Jay's production has been significantly better.

[dougdirt]

I asked that question to a few guys at BA and basically it came down to, and I am paraphrasing now "With only half of a season of stats, we cant just jump him over them if they are producing at a decent to good level just yet becuase they came into the draft rated much higher"
Both of them have the percieved "higher cieling" than Jay does, both also will probably play CF in the majors and Jay will probably be playing right field or left field. CF doesnt quite have the power that the corner spots do, so if you are producing very well at the CF position, it is more valuable than a good corner position.

That said, I would take Jay Bruce over Cameron Maybin for sure right now...Upton, I dont think I can do that just yet.

[Aronchis]

Maybin looks to me a big slugger, or in essense a more powerfull version of Mike Cameron. He will strikeout a ton, but hit many Johnsons and get alot of walks. Plus he will play a plus CF. Excellent prospect.

Bruce IMO is going to be a better contact hitter, a lesser athlete/RF, less power and MAYBE less walks. He looks to be about at 50 walks this year, I expect that to improve next year.

Maybin is going to be a trend setting player like Griffey, while Bruce is just the next Larry Walker. Walker was a nice player, but take him outside Coors, he wasn't all that.

[RedsIn07]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...es/261983.html
Q&A concerning the new rankings, Reds comments below:

Q: Ben S from Newington, CT asks:
Besides the draft hype and scouts drooling over Upton and Maybin since high school, what sets Jay Bruce apart from that Elite Duo of OF Prospects? So far, hes putting up better all around numbers than BOTH Upton and Maybin, and at the same age. His makeup and additude is off the charts, and there still remains questions about how much full effort Upton puts into his everyday play. Since your midseason 25 is based on the numbers and it said quote "Not far behind UptonMaybin duo in Midwest League." my question is, what can Bruce ever do to put himself with, or ahead of these other two elite prospects?

A: John Manuel: Good question Ben; for me, some of it is physical. Upton has more present strength, and Maybin looks like a big leaguer right now physically. I've used this line before but minus the 6-foot-8 part, Maybin looks like LeBron James to me, just so broad-shouldered and physical at such a young age. I just think Bruce isn't as physical as those guys right now (even though he's no shrimp himself), and that's why he's considered a bit behind them. But there's no reason he can't overtake them, and the higher up the ladder prospects the go, the more performance matters. He has significant tools and significant talent, obviously. If he translates his tools into performance more at higher levels, then he'll be rated ahead of them. Right now he is, but he's also a Texan who came into pro ball with a lot more polish than, say Maybin. He SHOULD be outperforming Maybin. I don't know what Upton's excuse is for not performing, but everyone still says the supreme talent is in there, and it shows itself from time to time.

Q: Deywane from Memphis asks:
If your list included 100 prospects where would Joey Votto rank and would Drew Stubbs get any consideration for the list?

A: John Manuel: Votto would; he got much love from scouts at the Futures Game. Stubbs would not, he needs to hit consistently with wood to earn consideration.

Q: Mark from Davis, Ca asks:
is there a chance we see Bailey pitching for the Reds this year, or even next year?

A: John Manuel: I could see him up this year, though I think the Reds will wait until next year.

Q: Joshua from Springfield, NJ asks:
How do bailey and hughes compare to the top pitching prospects from the beginning of the year who have since graduated to the bigs (ie liriano, verlander, billingsley, cain, etc)?

A: John Manuel:
Another good Q. Hard to think either one will be as dominant as Liriano and Verlander have been; those guys are real and spectacular. I'd put them closer to Billingsley and Cain, a little more raw (especially Bailey). Hughes has polish and stuff but I don't see him as being as electric as any of the others. he could be the most productive of the group but I don't think of him as electric. Elbert, as I have said, also belongs in this discussion for me.

Q: Stu from Minnapolis asks:
Does it look like the Reds farm system is starting to show a little life?

A: John Manuel:
Absolutely. Great strides made thanks to guys picked in the last three drafts. They have legit guys from Double-A on down and have had very few flameouts this year (Szymanski, Valiquette and Dickerson stick out as disappointments). Encouraging signs. Still progress to be made but lots of progress.

[ChatterRed]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Maybin looks to me a big slugger, or in essense a more powerfull version of Mike Cameron. He will strikeout a ton, but hit many Johnsons and get alot of walks. Plus he will play a plus CF. Excellent prospect.

Bruce IMO is going to be a better contact hitter, a lesser athlete/RF, less power and MAYBE less walks. He looks to be about at 50 walks this year, I expect that to improve next year.

Maybin is going to be a trend setting player like Griffey, while Bruce is just the next Larry Walker. Walker was a nice player, but take him outside Coors, he wasn't all that.

Uh..........you don't remember Walker with the Expos? (cough)