There's no joy in Cincinnati

[paulrichjr]

I didn't like the trade when it was done. I didn't like it a month later and now after reading this I realize that I hate it. I can't imagine BoBC likes reading this kind of stuff.

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog...keith#20060918

There's no joy in Cincinnati

posted: Monday, September 18, 2006 | Print Entry

After dropping two of three to the NL's worst team this weekend, the Reds' shot at the playoffs has dwindled enough that we can call their season a wrap. And perhaps it's time to take a look back at the trade that, in its own way, sealed their back at the end of the All-Star break: the surrender of Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez to Washington for two middle relievers.
The Reds were 45-44 at the time and considered playoff contenders in the wild-card and divisional races, even though they'd been outscored on the season by 15 runs at the time. But they'd had problems with run prevention, both in the rotation and bullpen (including more than a few late-game failures), so GM Wayne Krivsky -- already being hailed in some quarters for the trade of Wily Mo Peña for Bronson Arroyo and his pickup of Brandon Phillips -- decided to deal about forty percent of his offense for some bullpen help. The idea was that the Reds would take the extra playing time and give it to super-sub Ryan Freel and to minor leaguer Chris Denorfia, as well as to newly acquired Royce Clayton, who would ... I don't know, make a mean mojito for those post-victory parties in the clubhouse. Or something.

The move failed. At the time of the deal, the Reds had scored 448 runs in 89 games, a rate of 5.03 runs per game, good for fourth-best in the National League (unadjusted for ballpark). Since the deal, the Reds have scored 255 runs in 59 games, a rate of 4.32 runs per game, "good" for 14th-best (that is, third worst) in the National League. Only the Brewers and Pirates have been more inept offensively than the Reds since the Kearns-Lopez deal.

Meanwhile, Kearns and Lopez have both hit well for Washington since the trade, including a marked improvement in their OBPs. Kearns has hit .250/.374/.423 with the Nationals, while Lopez has hit .294/.378/.385. Among Reds hitters, only Rich Aurilia and Edwin Encarnacion have posted higher OBPs than Kearns and Lopez since the trade went down, and both Clayton and Phillips have posted OBPs below .300.

The Reds did get two pitchers back in the deal. Bill Bray has a great arm and has a good long-term outlook, but counting on a rookie reliever to contribute to a contending club over a three-month span is not sensible, and he's been so-so since the deal, albeit a major improvement over Chris Hammond and Brian Shackelford, whom the Reds had been using as their lefty relievers. He's been a lot better than the other reliever the Reds acquired -- Gary Majewski made a few horrible appearances and went on the DL with shoulder trouble, which the Reds are claiming they didn't know about. I guess they don't read the papers; here's a May 8 article from the Washington Post that says the Nats had diagnosed tendonitis in Majewski's right shoulder. No one can argue that the Nationals hid Majewski's injury, since it was in the papers. Caveat emptor, kids.

The Reds may still have missed the playoffs even if Krivsky had kept Kearns and Lopez, since they weren't a great team before the trade and had been horrible in 2005. But at this point, there can be no question that the trade hurt the Reds' chances to make the playoffs, and if they miss the wild card by one or two games, Reds fans will know why.

[Ltlabner]

Once again I don't think you can peg the trade for the sole reason for the decreased offensive output. While he doesn't come right out with it, that is clearly the implication of "Only the Brewers and Pirates have been more inept offensively than the Reds since the Kearns-Lopez deal."

An effect on the offesnse? Yes. The only reason for the complete offensive vacation. No.

[RANDY IN INDY]

The "trade" has been hashed and rehashed. I didn't like the trade the day that it happened but was willing to give it the benefit of a doubt. I like Krivsky and some of the things that he has done, but I really feel that this trade was beyond bad. I'd rather still have Kearns and Lopez than Bray, Majewski, Clayton and Harris.

[kbrake]

This was at best a mediocre team before the trade and this trade had nothing to do with this teams collapse. I'm not saying it was not a bad trade, but it has had nothing to do with this team coming up short.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by paulrichjr

here's a May 8 article from the Washington Post that says the Nats had diagnosed tendonitis in Majewski's right shoulder. No one can argue that the Nationals hid Majewski's injury, since it was in the papers. Caveat emptor, kids.

And here's a 8-23 article that points at another issue the Reds have with The Nationals, the "Shot" received whilst negotiations were in process.

I wonder if that tidbit was in that 5-8 article?

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...30355/-1/CINCI

The Reds believe the Washington Nationals should have informed them about a cortisone shot Majewski received just days before the July 13 trade.

Majewski struggled from the time the Reds got him. He finally ended up going on the disabled list Aug. 7. He remains on the DL.

It wasn't until he went on the DL that the Reds found out about the cortisone shot and learned that Majewski had been on anti-inflammatories since March.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by westofyou

And here's a 8-23 article that points at another issue the Reds have with The Nationals, the "Shot" received whilst negotiations were in process.

I wonder if that tidbit was in that 5-8 article?

I know the Reds like to blame the "missing shot" on all of Maj's problems and so forth, but they knew the guy was hurt all year and pitching in pain. Not disclosing one shot doesn't make that much of a difference.

It looks a lot clearer what happened now. The Reds asked about Maj's health at one point in negotiations, and I assume they got satisfactory disclosure. I assume the shot happened after Wayne's inquiry, and it looks like right before Wayne signed off on the deal, he failed to ask, "BTW, has Maj gotten any more treatments since the last update?".

But since Wayne said they would've made the deal anyway, and Maj is pitching after his rest, I think that the "missing shot" scandal is way overblown and certianly does not mean that Wayne should be excused for this blunder. It also doesn't prove that Bowden lied.

[RedFanAlways1966]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

It looks a lot clearer what happened now. The Reds asked about Maj's health at one point in negotiations, and I assume they got satisfactory disclosure. I assume the shot happened after Wayne's inquiry, and it looks like right before Wayne signed off on the deal, he failed to ask, "BTW, has Maj gotten any more treatments since the last update?".

Remind me to get your user-name at ebay so I never buy anything from you. I can see it now... "Brand new guitar for sale from REDREAD. Unless you ask, I do not need to tell you that the electronics are screwed and the neck is warped. But it was fine when I started the auction. The problems came after I started the 7-day auction. Therefore, buyer beware takes over!"

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966

Remind me to get your user-name at ebay so I never buy anything from you. I can see it now... "Brand new guitar for sale from REDREAD. Unless you ask, I do not need to tell you that the electronics are screwed and the neck is warped. But it was fine when I started the auction. The problems came after I started the 7-day auction. Therefore, buyer beware takes over!"

Nope, I've got 100% positive feedback on ebay.

I'm not saying what Bowden did was right. But the failure to disclose that was not the cause of Wayne's horrible lapse of judgement.

Fact: Maj was only tired, per the Reds' med staff. Not "damaged goods".
Fact: Wayne said he would've made the trade anyhow, even if he knew about the shot.
Fact: It was public knowledge that Maj was on the DL earlier this year and pitching hurt all year.

Thus, failure to disclose the shot was shady, but not the reason why we got hosed in this deal.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by paulrichjr

I didn't like the trade when it was done. I didn't like it a month later and now after reading this I realize that I hate it. I can't imagine BoBC likes reading this kind of stuff.

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog...keith#20060918

There's no joy in Cincinnati

posted: Monday, September 18, 2006 | Print Entry

Among Reds hitters, only Rich Aurilia and Edwin Encarnacion have posted higher OBPs than Kearns and Lopez since the trade went down, and both Clayton and Phillips have posted OBPs below .300.

Royce Clayton was known to be horrible so he's nothing new. If the Reds thought Clayton would provide any offensive support whatsoever, they were fooling themselves.

But how about good ole Brandon Phillips. He of the .256/.299/.438 line since the All-Star Break, including a PA/BB ratio of a whopping 21.36 (that's bad, very bad).

Phillips has been a clear example of the Pokey Reese syndrome, or in other words what happens to a player when they have difficulty differentiating balls and strikes. He's been an out machine for the past two months, and he's played a significant role in the phenomena known as the Disappearing Offense.

[redsmetz]

Phillips has been a clear example of the Pokey Reese syndrome, or in other words what happens to a player when they have difficulty differentiating balls and strikes. He's been an out machine for the past two months, and he's played a significant role in the phenomena known as the Disappearing Offense.

This is true of any number of players on the team for about six weeks plus. Immediately following the trade, this team showed it could score runs and win games. What the reason for this lengthy team slump is, I can't say, but it's all over the board, not just on some players or the abscence of others, IMO.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

This is true of any number of players on the team for about six weeks plus. Immediately following the trade, this team showed it could score runs and win games. What the reason for this lengthy team slump is, I can't say, but it's all over the board, not just on some players or the abscence of others, IMO.

Brandon Phillips major league career line: .248/.293/.379

Brandon Phillips 2006 Pre-ASB: .306/.357/.438
Brandon Phillips 2006 Post-ASB: .256/.299/.438

This is a guy who also has a career minor league OPS of .757. Going forward, Reds fans should be worried that Brandon Phillips during the 2006 first half may have been a mirage. Stick him at shortstop and hope for some defensive value out of him, but the team should absolutely not rely on Phillips for much offensive punch whatsoever. If we get it, great, but it shouldn't be expected.

Pokey Reese was a huge hit during 1999, and we saw what he turned out to be. Like Phillips, Reese didn't know how to take a walk either.

[Krusty]

Yeah, Kearns and Lopez just tore up the league when they went to Washington.

Bottom line is it wouldn't have made a difference if they were still here. If anything we gain alittle payroll flexibility and hopefully Majeski and Bray will improve next season.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by Krusty

Yeah, Kearns and Lopez just tore up the league when they went to Washington.

Bottom line is it wouldn't have made a difference if they were still here. If anything we gain alittle payroll flexibility and hopefully Majeski and Bray will improve next season.

If you honestly believe Kearns and Lopez wouldn't have helped this offense one lick, then you're grossly underestimating the value of avoiding outs.

[TeamBoone]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

If you honestly believe Kearns and Lopez wouldn't have helped this offense one lick, then you're grossly underestimating the value of avoiding outs.

They also may have played better in Cincinnati than either has in Washington, though they haven't stunk in DC. They both had the adjustment hurdle to clear, in addition to the mental adjustment of being traded from a contending team to a dud (and from a team they both wanted to be on). And, of course, there's always the ballpark factor.

I truly believe they would have been better in Cincinnati and may have helped the club a lot.

[Kc61]

Like most analyses of this trade, it ignores that Rich Aurilia gained lots of at bats because of Lopez' departure. He was probably the team's best hitter down the stretch and would have been on the bench much more if this trade is not made.

To me, this trade failed (so far) for one simple reason: Majewski. The concept was to get an everyday, eighth inning set up man for Guardado. Like Mike Jackson and Jeff Brantley in 1995. With no real contribution from Majewski, it's impossible to argue that this trade helped the Reds.

I think it takes the Reds' players off the hook to say the trade killed the offense. RA managed to hit well after the trade. Many of the others just failed to do so.