Brandon McCarthy to Texas

[WVRed]

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/Hea...aspx?sport=MLB

Sources told the Dallas Morning News that the Rangers have acquired Brandon McCarthy from the White Sox for John Danks and Nick Masset.

Wow. There will also be a couple of lesser prospects exchanged. The White Sox had previously been after both Danks and Masset in a Jon Garland trade. This is far a better trade for the Rangers. McCarthy isn't far away from being a better pitcher than Garland and he's five years away from free agency. Garland, on the other hand, is due $22 million over the next two years before he becomes a free agent. The White Sox are getting a couple of talented arms here, but this is the third trade Ken Williams has made this winter that we're not fond of. Dec. 23 - 2:24 pm et

Somewhat surprising since they were trying to get McCarthy into the rotation. Just hope Ken Williams knows what he is doing.

[Spitball]

I just saw this one on the Red Sox board. I can't figure what Williams was trying to accomplish by trading a pitcher of McCarthy's age, experience, and ability for very good but unproven prospects.

[Jpup]

Ken Williams is a tool. Nothing new.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by Jpup

Ken Williams is a tool. Nothing new.

He may be a 5 star tool, but right now I'd take him over Krivsky.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Jpup

Ken Williams is a tool. Nothing new.

Doubt it. McCarthy gave up 1.81 HR per nine. He could be really bad in Texas. Williams sold high before McCarthy got exposed in the rotation full time.

[Spitball]

Originally Posted by mth123

Doubt it. McCarthy gave up 1.81 HR per nine. He could be really bad in Texas. Williams sold high before McCarthy got exposed in the rotation full time.

Nate silver agrees.

December 23, 2006, 07:33 PM ET
Bye-Bye, Brandon


by Nate Silver


Leave it to Kenny Williams to break the monotony of one of the slowest weeks in the baseball news cycle: the Brandon McCarthy era has come to an end in Chicago before it ever really began.

McCarthy’s name carries a lot of weight in sabermetric circles, and Williams had declared him all but untradable as recently as this summer, when he’d been bandied about as part of the potential booty for Alfonso Soriano. Publicly and privately, the desire to ensure that McCarthy had a job in the starting rotation was a big part of the White Sox‘ justification for moving Freddy Garcia earlier this month.

So why the sudden about-face? The answer is likely the same as it usually is with Williams: he saw an opportunity to add value and he took it. And on that score, he’ll probably wind up on the winning side of this deal.

McCarthy has just one major flaw as a pitcher, but it’s potentially a fatal one: his Eric Milton-esque tendency to give up home runs. McCarthy yielded home runs at a rate faster than all but a handful of pitchers in the big leagues last season. He’s a flyball pitcher, and his home run rates have been high throughout his professional career, both in the majors and the minors. I watched video of a fair number of McCarthy’s home runs on MLB.com, and it was clear that they were coming on bad pitches, fastballs left up in the hitting zone or hanging curveballs thrown on bad counts. While there’s certainly an element of luck involved in giving up home runs, in McCarthy’s case there’s every reason to think that this is a real and persistant problem.

Add it all up, and McCarthy’s PECOTA projected EqERA as a starting pitcher next year is an uninspiring 4.97. The raw ERA projection is higher than that, of course, since Texas is a bad environment for a pitcher with gopher ball issues, just as Chicago was.

John Danks has had his own problems with home runs, and his EqERA projection is 5.07, which isn’t any better. Still, the White Sox win this trade on tiebreakers. Danks is nearly two years younger than McCarthy, which isn’t as important for pitching prospects as it is for hitting prospects, but still counts for something. He’s a year and a half behind McCarthy in service time. And he wasn’t the only arm the White Sox picked up in this deal.

Danks might also be a better fit for pitching coach Don Cooper. It is Cooper who would have been the key to McCarthy’s development, who could have gotten him away from the bad habits that led to all those longballs, but one senses that the White Sox viewed McCarthy as stubborn, perhaps to the point of being uncoachable. They also don’t run the risk of upsetting Danks if he starts the year in Triple-A, which should produce a genuine competition in spring training between Danks, Gavin Floyd, Charlie Haeger, and perhaps even Lance Broadway.

That is, if Williams doesn’t have another surprise up his sleeve first.

[Outshined_One]

It's a strange deal...

McCarthy is the kind of pitcher a lot of teams would really want. He has ML experience and some success, plus he projects nicely. Maybe he won't become an ace, but he could become a very good middle of the rotation guy at the rate things are going. Plus, he's managed to stay relatively healthy. What makes him more valuable than Danks, Masset, and Rasner?

Danks bothers me. He has ace upside, but ever since his promotion from High A, his production has been suspect. His GO/FO was skewed more towards flyballs this year than in previous years. He also gave up more HRs (22). Now, his Ks have improved and his BBs remained constant this season, to his advantage. I just worry about a guy who begins giving up noticeably more flyballs and HRs as he advances through the minors. He'll be going to one of the most HR-friendly ballparks in baseball, to boot. He'll need another half season in AAA to get fully adjusted, imo. I think he'll turn out okay, but I have doubts about him becoming an ace under these circumstances.

Masset has good potential and should contribute right away. No problems there.

Rasner doesn't appear to be anything special. Not enough Ks, too many BBs, and a mediocre GO/FO rate.

I can't find much about Paisano. He's a 19 year old 6'1 165 lb OF out of Venezuela with decent patience and some pop in the Venezuelan Summer League. It's tough to project those guys, so he could make the White Sox regret trading him or he might turn out to be nothing. Who knows?

[flyer85]

nice deal for the Strangers

[Krusty]

Why the White Sox would trade McCarthy after moving Garica to the Phillies is beyond me.

[Aronchis]

Looks to me Williams believes McCarthy is overrated hype.................interesting

[jmcclain19]

I thought I remember McCarthy making some not so flattering remarks about needing to be a starter next year just a few weeks back.

Can't seem to find them now, but I thought it might have raised a few eyebrows at the time.

But it could be like Aronchis said - perhaps a few years of watching him has made Williams believe McCarthy is a high ceiling mirage and won't get much better.

On another note - It seems to me just about every time teams dealing established starting pitchers they make a comment about "dealing from strength" and yet it always seems to come back and bite them in the rear.

[vaticanplum]

I wonder what, if anything, this means for Zito.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by vaticanplum

I wonder what, if anything, this means for Zito.

He's going to end up in your stocking tonight.

I have this weird feeling Zito will end up with Boston after Boras successfully negotiated the contract for Mr Gyroball.

I can't imagine Boston really wants Papelbon to go to the rotation.

Zito solves that problem.

[Jpup]

I think Zito is going to be a Met, I would imagine that the deal is all but done.

[vaticanplum]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

He's going to end up in your stocking tonight.

I have this weird feeling Zito will end up with Boston after Boras successfully negotiated the contract for Mr Gyroball.

I can't imagine Boston really wants Papelbon to go to the rotation.

Zito solves that problem.

If Zito goes to Boston I will throw myself off a cliff.

I was going to say that I still think he may end up in Texas, but it looks
like alexad has taken care of things for us. Cheers, man! Merry Christmas!