What's the deal with Joey Votto?

[The Snow Chief]

I know it's early, but I am disappointed to see that he has struggled at the plate this year. I have him pegged as Hatty's replacement either next year or definately 2009. Does anyone in the know have in information as to whether there is an injury issue or it is just a slump?

[membengal]

The minor league forum has had a bunch of talk about him. His numbers look off, but it's a bit deceptive. His plate discipline is still exemplary and has been extremely hit unlucky to date. The guess amongst most of the more knowledgeable chatting heads on that part of the forum seem to that his overall numbers are about to head up, and rather sharply over the next few months.

[rdiersin]

What's the deal? Well it isn't as bad as it looks IMO. He has in some ways just gotten a little unlucky.

Player		ISOP	ISOD	BABIP	SEC
Joey Votto	0.156	0.153	0.261	0.375

The secondary average is good. The ISOP and ISOD numbers are decent. But that batting average on balls in play is just not good. He's doing ok on the things that are in more of his control, but the numbers seem to say his hits just aren't falling.

[coachw513]

Originally Posted by rdiersin

What's the deal? Well it isn't as bad as it looks IMO. He has in some ways just gotten a little unlucky.

Player		ISOP	ISOD	BABIP	SEC
Joey Votto	0.156	0.153	0.261	0.375

The secondary average is good. The ISOP and ISOD numbers are decent. But that batting average on balls in play is just not good. He's doing ok on the things that are in more of his control, but the numbers seem to say his hits just aren't falling.

I "understand" BABIP...but what are the other statistics you noted???

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by coachw513

I "understand" BABIP...but what are the other statistics you noted???

Isolated Power. Isolated Discipline. Secondary Average.

Isolated power is Slugging minus average.

Isolated discipline is OBP minus average.

Secondary Average....(total bases minus hits plus walks plus stolen bases minus caught stealing) divided by at bats.... I think.

[rdiersin]

Originally Posted by coachw513

I "understand" BABIP...but what are the other statistics you noted???

ISOP: Isolated power. This is basically (2B+2*3B+3*HR)/AB, i.e. it is the components of slugging not tied to a single. So what this says about Joey Votto is that he still hitting with some power, as his doubles, triples, and homeruns are still acceptable, but the singles aren't falling for him right now.

ISOD: This is simply the OBP-AVG, and is an estimate to the players discipline, that is, its a way of measuring how a guy gets on base without basehits. Votto has done ok here as well.

SEC=(2B+2*3B+3*HR+BB+SB-CS)/AB: So this is a stat to give a player a sort of average, (called secondary average hence the SEC), and "good" is typically .300.

Hope that helps.

[dougdirt]

You know the difference between this year and last year? Hits are not falling in for him. It really is that simple.

        2006    2007
LD %     17.7   21.4
GB %     39.9   40.0
FB %     39.2   35.7
PU %      3.0    2.8


           2006   2007  
GB hit %    24     14
LD hit %    77     47
FB hit %    42     28

If anything, he seems to be hitting more line drives this year.... yet he still is not getting the ball to fall in. Votto will be FINE. Don't worry about him. He is walking 18.2% of the time he steps to the plate this year, up from 13.2% last year.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

You know the difference between this year and last year? Hits are not falling in for him. It really is that simple.

        2006    2007
LD %     17.7   21.4
GB %     39.9   40.0
FB %     39.2   35.7
PU %      3.0    2.8


           2006   2007  
GB hit %    24     14
LD hit %    77     47
FB hit %    42     28

If anything, he seems to be hitting more line drives this year.... yet he still is not getting the ball to fall in. Votto will be FINE. Don't worry about him. He is walking 18.2% of the time he steps to the plate this year, up from 13.2% last year.

Yup, Votto will be fine, and there's nothing to worry about as far as I'm concerned. The league average for line drives falling in for hits is around 75-80 percent, which is where Votto was at last season. Given enough time this year, that 47 percent hit rate off his line drives will begin to level out and head right back up near 75 percent.

If Votto can continue putting up these 2007 batted ball percentages while maintaining that very nice improvement in walk rate, then he's knocking on the door of just exploding in the International League.

[edabbs44]

Sorry, but this cannot be sugarcoated enough to make me a believer. He is struggling. He jumped a level and now has to make an adjustment. It's not anytime to panic, but why can't we admit that he's struggling?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Sorry, but this cannot be sugarcoated enough to make me a believer. He is struggling. He jumped a level and now has to make an adjustment. It's not anytime to panic, but why can't we admit that he's struggling?

Because nothing he is doing says he should be struggling. Is he hitting the ball at the exact same rate as last year? Yes. Is he hitting more line drives? Yes. Is he hitting fly balls at the same rate? Yes. Is he hitting ground balls at the same rate? Yes. Is his BABIP 130 points lower than it was last season? Yes.

Why should he adjust what he is doing? He is hitting the ball exactly the same as last year except his Hr rate is a little lower, but its about the same as it was at this time last year. He is hitting more line drives, which tells me he is seeing the ball better and getting better swings on it. He has been unlucky, simple as that.

[bthomasiscool]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Because nothing he is doing says he should be struggling. Is he hitting the ball at the exact same rate as last year? Yes. Is he hitting more line drives? Yes. Is he hitting fly balls at the same rate? Yes. Is he hitting ground balls at the same rate? Yes. Is his BABIP 130 points lower than it was last season? Yes.

Why should he adjust what he is doing? He is hitting the ball exactly the same as last year except his Hr rate is a little lower, but its about the same as it was at this time last year. He is hitting more line drives, which tells me he is seeing the ball better and getting better swings on it. He has been unlucky, simple as that.

There is another side to this, besides all of those numbers, the BABIP's the GOSBSLG's and the LMNOP's, there is the side saying that yes he may be hitting like he was last year, but being unlucky in terms of getting hits. This could one, make him change his approach, which would be bad; and more likely have get down on himself and screwing up his mental part of the game. Like Yogi Berra once said, "Baseball is 90% mental, the other have is Physical".

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by bthomasiscool

There is another side to this, besides all of those numbers, the BABIP's the GOSBSLG's and the LMNOP's, there is the side saying that yes he may be hitting like he was last year, but being unlucky in terms of getting hits. This could one, make him change his approach, which would be bad; and more likely have get down on himself and screwing up his mental part of the game. Like Yogi Berra once said, "Baseball is 90% mental, the other have is Physical".

Well in May Joey Votto is back to being Joey Votto. The hits are falling in for him and he is hitting the ball hard still.

[rdiersin]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Sorry, but this cannot be sugarcoated enough to make me a believer. He is struggling. He jumped a level and now has to make an adjustment. It's not anytime to panic, but why can't we admit that he's struggling?

Who's denying that he's struggling? Yea he is struggling, as is evident by his average, but the point is, he is still doing the things that make him a good player. His ISOP, ISOD, and SEC give reasons as to why we should expect him to pull out of it.

[edabbs44]

What's a typical BABIP?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

What's a typical BABIP?

In the minor leagues for a power hitter, about .330. Going into last nights game Joey Votto's BABIP was .227 according to Minorleaguesplits.com.