Some Tough Bullpen Decisions Loom.

[redsfan30]

Over the next 2-3 weeks, this organization is going to have some very tough calls to make in regards to the bullpen. Eddie Guardado would seem like he's not far away, assuming all goes well with his rehab and Todd Coffey has pitched well so far for the Bats down in Louisville. You wouldn't think he's going to be down there too much longer.

Here is the way the bullpen is constructed right now (I'll leave Livingston out of the picture):

Jarrod Burton
Jon Coutlangus
Gary Majewski
Brad Salmon
Victor Santos
Mike Stanton
David Weathers

Weathers and Majewski are guarenteed safe. It's possible that any one out of the remaining group of five could be on the hot seat when Guardado and Coffey are ready to go (and let's not forget Bill Bray).

All have pitched well at times, all have pitched poorly at times. You'd think Santos will be kept as the long man and Stanton will be kept because of his contract situation (and honestly, he's not pitched that badly of late). You'd think Burton's safe because of his Rule 5 status. That leaves Coutlangus and Salmon (a righty and lefty), both of whom have pitched pretty well. Will it come down to a numbers game? Will it come down to who has options and who doesn't despite performance?

What do you do?

And please try and keep ideas/thoughts realistic. Chances are Mike Stanton is not going to be DFA'd, like I'm sure most are going to call for.

It's going to be an interesting next week or two.

[M2]

What makes Majewski guaranteed safe?

I'd say the only safe guy is Burton because Rule V demands he be on the roster (interestingly, he's the only Reds pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA too). Weathers could very well find himself dealt to another team.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by M2

What makes Majewski guaranteed safe?

I'd say the only safe guy is Burton because Rule V demands he be on the roster (interestingly, he's the only Reds pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA too). Weathers could very well find himself dealt to another team.

It might benefit both Weathers and the Reds to part ways.

The Reds aren't going to compete this year, and I'd be very surprised for next year. I have a feeling Weathers wants to win. (What player doesn't, aside from Eric "I just cash a paycheck" Milton"?)

Send Weathers to a winning team and get a warm body that might help 2-3 years down the road.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

It might benefit both Weathers and the Reds to part ways.

The Reds aren't going to compete this year, and I'd be very surprised for next year. I have a feeling Weathers wants to win. (What player doesn't, aside from Eric "I just cash a paycheck" Milton"?)

Send Weathers to a winning team and get a warm body that might help 2-3 years down the road.

I agree with this, but given all the struggles of everybody in the central, I just don't see a purge happening yet. The Reds are 3 out of 2nd place and if they could get past the others, they could maintain an illusion of trying to catch Milwaukee. They are 9.5 Games out of 1st in the Central and 11 out of the wild card. I think most on here think its over (I thought so in December) but they just may want to keep up a charade of being competitive through another homestand anyway.

I'm guessing Salmon is going down when Guardado or Bray is ready unless he gets it together and stops walking so many.

As for Weathers, San Francisco may be a place that could be in the market for him. They just unloaded Benitez, his heir apparant Brian Wilson was awful in spring, sent to the minors and is now on the AAA DL. In another thread a Savvy poster (SteelSD) mentioned Jonathon Sanchez as a good target for the Reds. I agree and that got me looking at SF. I had a hope (Inspired by 11BarryLarkin11) over the winter for Kevin Corriea and looking again it seems that SF may just be a good match in general. They have the starting pitching to contend, are not averse to vets, seem to be in win now mode and in addition to Weathers, could probably use a LH bat if Klesko's back puts him out again. My proposal would be Weathers, Maj and Hatte for Sanchez and Kevin Correia. That would open room for Votto at 1B , in the pen for Bray, Guardado, McBeth, etc and bring in two cheap starting candidates in Correia and Sanchez. Correia has already shown to be a decent pen guy if he doesn't crack the rotation. Sanchez was SF's #2 prospect coming into the season and was a total bust in the pen and was sent to AAA. He was a starter up to this year. The Giants could be looking at Sanchez as a reliever in AAA in the thought that he could be the closer fo the future, but they look short in the pen now and he doesn't look anywhere near ready to help them this year and Weathers would help them win now. SF gets Weathers to close or Set-up and Maj adds depth tp replace Correia. Hatte goes back to the Bay area and re-establishes his productive platoon with Aurilia (may not be so productive outside of GABP). Looks like a match made in Heaven. If they would rather have the big bat, I'd include Griffey in place of Hatte if they want. I'd even pay some of the bill for them. SF would be something to watch with Griffey and Bonds putting up milestone HR. Not sure Griffey would go, but it would be a legit chance at the post season for him, he'd help SF, and with Bonds HR chase getting the attention he could probably play in relative anonimity. That and his apparent good relationship with Bonds just may get him to go.

[Marc D]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

It might benefit both Weathers and the Reds to part ways.

The Reds aren't going to compete this year, and I'd be very surprised for next year. I have a feeling Weathers wants to win. (What player doesn't, aside from Eric "I just cash a paycheck" Milton"?)

Send Weathers to a winning team and get a warm body that might help 2-3 years down the road.

Not to get off track but if Milton was just interested in cashing a paycheck he could have ridden the DL as much as he wanted to from the day he signed that deal.

The guy went through a lot of physical pain to keep trying and obviously a lot of embarrassment when he was consistently reminded that he was no longer a good player in front of 20-30 K every night. That's a tough thing for a pro athlete to face.

I don't want to ever see him pitch for us again but I don't have any issue with Miltons effort. Just wanted to make a distinction between ripping him for his lack of performance(I'm all for it and do it often) and questioning his charachter.

[remdog]

Originally Posted by Marc D

I don't want to ever see him pitch for us again but I don't have any issue with Miltons effort. Just wanted to make a distinction between ripping him for his lack of performance(I'm all for it and do it often) and questioning his charachter.

I agree completely. Thanks for expressing that clearly. Milton has taken a lot of derision but has been a stand up guy. His career is likely over and he, better than anyone, most likely knows that. That's a tough thing to deal with and he easily could have lashed out but he's hasn't.

Rem

[Red Leader]

If Eddie Guardado is ready to go, I have no problems optioning Coutlangus to AAA to make room for him. He is the major league team's closer. You have to make room for him no matter how hard the decision.

When Coffey is ready to roll, I don't have a problem optioning Salmon, either. You have to have your best players on the major league team and although Salmon is a good relief pitcher, I believe Cofffey, when right, is better.

When Bray is ready to come off the DL, then you can look at possibly trading or DFA'ing Staton, IMO, as I do think Bray in for Stanton would further improve the bullpen.

[Stormy]

Originally Posted by Red Leader

If Eddie Guardado is ready to go, I have no problems optioning Coutlangus to AAA to make room for him. He is the major league team's closer. You have to make room for him no matter how hard the decision.

When Coffey is ready to roll, I don't have a problem optioning Salmon, either. You have to have your best players on the major league team and although Salmon is a good relief pitcher, I believe Cofffey, when right, is better.

When Bray is ready to come off the DL, then you can look at possibly trading or DFA'ing Staton, IMO, as I do think Bray in for Stanton would further improve the bullpen.

In my opinion, that is the type of by the book thinking that will likely lose this team 90 games this year, and will have a bullpen no more prepared for 2008 than it was for 2007. A 3 game winning streak, against teams that are nearly the Reds' equals in futility, should not divert this franchise from making all moves with an eye to their future, rather than present. Winning at a .389 clip, and having lost on a similar scale over the course of their last 160+ games, is a reminder that the current manifestation of this team is headed nowhere fast.

Over the span of the next 30-45 days, we have a chance to both remove much of the aging driftwood from this squad, and to use the remainder of this season to evaluate which youngsters belong in the bullpen of the future. Anything derailing, or even indefinitely delaying, that tactic, contributes to having a repeat performance of our pitching woes in 2008 (and further bolsters Krivsky's currently misguided bullpen construction philosophy, which is the real danger). Anything which gives him a reason to continue to build bullpens as he has in his first 2 seasons, allocating too much money, resources and roster space to washed out veteran soft tossers over the task of actually evaluating the youngsters on an extended basis.

We have a chance to mold the core of a good bullpen, for the first time since we developed our own model from within with Sully, Williamson, Graves (acquired as a prospect), White etc... and to then supplement them with the proper veteran depth. We've been too busy the past 2 seasons, seeing if other teams' jettisoned journeyman (Cormier, Schoeneweis, Stanton, Guardado, Saarloos, Mercker, Hammond, White, Franklin et al...) can form the nucleus of a bullpen, rather than developing youngsters around a few key veterans.

When, and if Guardado is ready, Krivsky should bite the bullet of his past errors, and start to make room by shaving guys like Stanton from the roster; by sending Majewski back out if he continues to utterly underwhelm; by trying to turn Weathers (whom I love for his leadership and grit) career season into a nice trade return for our future; by building up Santos stock with an eye towards moving him, or releasing him etc...

My greatest fear regarding this bullpen is that a slight winning streak, and the return of a few of the ailing vets a.) leads Krivsky to thinking that we are competetive, and that our best bet at heading back towards .500 is to ride the veterans, and that b.) after the All-Star break, we find our bullpen to be Guardado, Weathers, Santos, Stanton, Majewski, Coffey (and maybe one youngster). Consequently, we're back to square one, heading into 2008 with a viable, long-term bullpen still needing to be constructed, forever, putting off any semblance of rebuilding, due to wistfully thinking we're contending right now.

[remdog]

I let Easy Eddie toil in the minors until the trading deadline. I ride Stanton, Majewski, Weathers until that deadline also. I try to make them into something tradeable but, if I can't get a bag of balls for any of them, I eat Stanton's contract, possibly stick with Weathers for awhile and option the Majic Man, if possible.

Burton stays. Santos goes on the trading block until I can't wait any longer then he's bilge water. Coutalangus stays. Salmon stays.

I fill from there depending on which side I need the arm to swing from.

Rem

[dfs]

Originally Posted by Stormy

In my opinion, that is the type of by the book thinking that will likely lose this team 90 games this year, and will have a bullpen no more prepared for 2008 than it was for 2007. A 3 game winning streak, against teams that are nearly the Reds' equals in futility, should not divert this franchise from making all moves with an eye to their future, rather than present.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but honestly curious.
Has anybody seen any tendency during the Narron era that they are really trying to see what players have as opposed to trying to win every game out? There's a subtle difference there isn't there?

In mid-September last year, Narron gave some quotes indicating that he expected to play Brandon Phillips at shortstop for the rest of the year in order to sort out if Phillips could do it. The experiment lasted two days. Now...I understand, the cards were losing it and the reds nearly crept into the playoffs even thought the team was miserable, but...two games, one of which was played in a downpour and called off after five innings. That was a 9 inning tryout.

Look at the way the bench is constructed....Old guys with specific skills. Glove boy, Right handed bat, Left handed bat, Spare catcher, fast versatile guy. Look at the bullpen that has been assembled two years in a row by different GM's, guys that can "pitch every night" and a staff of pitchers that can "fill multiple roles".

If the reds are not intent on winning right now (and agree that they shouldn't be) can Jerry Narron manage in a way such that the goal is to sort out the talent the organization has and not maximize the chance that you win every night? I've seen no indication that this is the case.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by dfs

I'm not disagreeing with you, but honestly curious.
Has anybody seen any tendency during the Narron era that they are really trying to see what players have as opposed to trying to win every game out? There's a subtle difference there isn't there?

In mid-September last year, Narron gave some quotes indicating that he expected to play Brandon Phillips at shortstop for the rest of the year in order to sort out if Phillips could do it. The experiment lasted two days. Now...I understand, the cards were losing it and the reds nearly crept into the playoffs even thought the team was miserable, but...two games, one of which was played in a downpour and called off after five innings. That was a 9 inning tryout.

Look at the way the bench is constructed....Old guys with specific skills. Look at the bullpen that has been assembled two years in a row by different GM's, guys that can "pitch every night" and a staff of pitchers that can "fill multiple roles".

If the reds are not intent on winning right now (and agree that they shouldn't be)

Can Jerry Narron manage in a way such that the goal is to sort out the talent the organization has and not maximize the chance that you win every night? I've seen no indication that this is the case.

That's reason enough, right there, that he should be fired. And I'm not big on the "Fire Narron" bandwagon either.

[Reds1]

Originally Posted by Red Leader

If Eddie Guardado is ready to go, I have no problems optioning Coutlangus to AAA to make room for him. He is the major league team's closer. You have to make room for him no matter how hard the decision.

When Coffey is ready to roll, I don't have a problem optioning Salmon, either. You have to have your best players on the major league team and although Salmon is a good relief pitcher, I believe Cofffey, when right, is better.

When Bray is ready to come off the DL, then you can look at possibly trading or DFA'ing Staton, IMO, as I do think Bray in for Stanton would further improve the bullpen.

Coutalangus could go, but he's the best lefty we have. He does have the option though. I'd like to see a trade of a vet. I love Stormy, but if he has trade value it might not be a bad idea.

[BRM]

Why is Majewski garaunteed safe? I don't think I buy that.

Salmon could get sent down if they want to callup Coffey. Couter may have to get demoted as well if Stanton isn't traded. With Guardado and Bray coming up, I doubt Jerry wants four lefties in the pen.

Santos and Weathers could end being traded in the next month so that could open up a couple of spots.

[Kc61]

Key moment is July 31. Reds will straddle several of these guys between Cincy and Louisville, until then.

At July 31, Reds should try to trade Stanton and Weathers to make room for young relievers. Possible Santos and Maj could be moved too. At that point, things will open up.

Unless, by some miracle, the Reds are really in the Central hunt, in which case the veteran types will probably stick around for awhile.

I think there will be a market for some of these relievers at the deadline, although wouldn't expect too much in return and may have to contribute to two-year contract payoff.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by M2

What makes Majewski guaranteed safe?

Originally Posted by BRM

Why is Majewski garaunteed safe? I don't think I buy that.

Gotta justify that trade, man.