under the radar prospects

[jamess697]

I was looking through stats and was wondering why no one ever talked about these players. What are projected to do?

Aaron Herr-AAA
Josh Roenicke-AA
Craig Tatum-AA
Michael Griffin-A+/AA
Pedro Viola-A+

[OesterPoster]

There are some other often overlooked players in the system right now too. We're all mainly infatuated with names like Bruce, Votto, Bailey, Soto, Waring, Frazier, Stubbs, Valaika, etc.; however, one guy I keep an eye on is one of the Aussies for the GCL Reds, Thomas Fiebag. Granted, small sample size, but he's still only given up 3 hits and 1 run in 9.1 innings. He's a righty, but lefties are only hitting .071 off of him, while righties are hitting a paltry .125 off of him.

...and he's only 18.

The other 18 year old Aussie with the GCL Reds isn't fairing too badly either, Ricky Rhodes...though his K/BB ratio isn't too hot.

[Kc61]

Without seeing him pitch, I think Josh Roenicke is clearly one of the Reds' top ten prospects right now, and considering that he's a reliever he is all the more valuable. He's the one guy in the chain who I can see being a major league closer in the next couple of years. I hear he is mainly a fastball guy with limited secondary pitches, but it looks like he "misses bats." He's moved fast, is doing well at AA, and I expect him to be a Red.

Pre-season I posted that Tatum would be improved. His progress was definitely slowed by injuries. Still question if he has the bat to be a starter in the major leagues, but he looks like he could be at least a solid backup. Having a fine year.

Another guy is Ruben Medina at Sarasota. Has a 1.8 ERA and is 4-2. Not a big guy but is only 21 pitching well at High A ball.

Finally, Justin Turner has exceeded expectations at Dayton and I would hope he gets moved up soon. With Valaika stalling a bit at High A so far, wonder if Turner will turn out to be an equal or better prospect in the long run.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Without seeing him pitch, I think Josh Roenicke is clearly one of the Reds' top ten prospects right now, and considering that he's a reliever he is all the more valuable. He's the one guy in the chain who I can see being a major league closer in the next couple of years. I hear he is mainly a fastball guy with limited secondary pitches, but it looks like he "misses bats." He's moved fast, is doing well at AA, and I expect him to be a Red.

I'm curious as to why you think Roenicke would be rated higher than Calvin Medlock right now. I think you could even make an argument for Carlos Guevara possibly ahead of Roenicke as well.

IMO he is either the 2nd or 3rd best relief prospect in the Reds system right now. That does not translate to a top 10 prospect.

Don't get me wrong, I like Roenicke, and I agree that one day he will probably pitch in GAB, but let's not get carried away.

[Redman15]

Danny Dorn is also one to keep an eye on. He won the batting title in the Pioneer league last year. He got off to a slow start this year. He led the FSL in RBI's before going on the DL after getting hit by a pitch in the hand. He has made the most of his AB's.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I'm curious as to why you think Roenicke would be rated higher than Calvin Medlock right now. I think you could even make an argument for Carlos Guevara possibly ahead of Roenicke as well.

IMO he is either the 2nd or 3rd best relief prospect in the Reds system right now. That does not translate to a top 10 prospect.

Don't get me wrong, I like Roenicke, and I agree that one day he will probably pitch in GAB, but let's not get carried away.

I do like Roenicke better than the other relief prospects. Roenicke is 6'3", much more of a classic hard throwers' size than Medlock and Guevera. Roenicke got a later start because, I think, he was a four year college player, but moved up very quickly and so far has a high K rate in AA. I think he is the Reds' top bullpen prospect in terms of ceiling and he is quite close to AAA and then the majors. He is a potential closer; my understanding is that the others are good prospects too, but more likely setup men.

Most folks won't agree, but after Bailey, Bruce, Votto and Cueto, I don't see any prospects better than Roenicke. He has the upside, is healthy, and is moving up the ladder quickly. I think he has a better chance to be a successful major leaguer than more highly touted players who are still in A ball. He may not make the top ten lists, but he's high on mine.

I also like Asadoorian, the converted position player, who also seems like a hard thrower who just needs polish. In his first full year of pitching he seems like a high strikeout guy. He is older, but I believe the Reds really see something in this guy and he has a chance at the major leagues. (I picked Coutlangus as my "most likely to succeed" guy this year -- these converted position players can come from nowhere and be real good.)

As for Dorn, someone pointed out that he hits righties much better than lefties, but he skipped a level this year and has done very well considering this. I think he is potentially a useful player, perhaps in a platoon situation.

[lollipopcurve]

Nice list -- the only one I have almost no hope for is Herr. Griffin's been a player I've liked for a while (as a possible utility guy, not a starter), and there's no doubt Roenicke, Tatum and Viola have opened some eyes this year.

[dougdirt]

Keep an eye on 17 year old Venezuelan Efrain Rodriguez of the GCL Reds.

9.1 innings, 7 hits, 3 walks, 1.93 ERA, .194 BAA

[Benihana]

I see your thinking, but I still can't completely buy it. There aren't too many elite closers that came up through the ranks as relief pitchers. The ones that do usually advance to the majors extremely quickly- like within a year of being drafted (Chad Cordero, Huston Street). I guess you could use JJ Putz as a role model for Roenicke, but Putz was at least a #1 starter in college with absolutely filthy stuff. That's all I'm saying.

The reason why most (myself included) will rank Travis Wood, Sean Watson, etc. ahead of Roenicke, because their ceilings are in fact higher. Relief pitchers in the minor leagues tend not to be regarded very highly in general, the guys I mentioned above nothwithstanding. As for Medlock, he has pretty similar numbers to Roenicke now, only he's doing it at the same age a level ahead (AAA). I would rank Roenicke in the 12-20 range right now, but I would keep an eye on him for sure.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I see your thinking, but I still can't completely buy it. There aren't too many elite closers that came up through the ranks as relief pitchers. The ones that do usually advance to the majors extremely quickly- like within a year of being drafted (Chad Cordero, Huston Street). I guess you could use JJ Putz as a role model for Roenicke, but Putz was at least a #1 starter in college with absolutely filthy stuff. That's all I'm saying.

The reason why most (myself included) will rank Travis Wood, Sean Watson, etc. ahead of Roenicke, because their ceilings are in fact higher. Relief pitchers in the minor leagues tend not to be regarded very highly in general, the guys I mentioned above nothwithstanding. As for Medlock, he has pretty similar numbers to Roenicke now, only he's doing it at the same age a level ahead (AAA). I would rank Roenicke in the 12-20 range right now, but I would keep an eye on him for sure.

Well, Medlock's numbers took a hit tonight and his AAA stats don't look that good right now. I think Roenicke's numbers at AA are better, but small sample size.

Perhaps I am influenced by the Reds' own apparent view. For example, the Reds seemed to value Coutlangus quite highly after obtaining him from (I think) San Francisco. Moved him up pretty quickly, put him on the 40 man roster. I just got the feeling the Reds were high on him even though he didn't make the prospect lists.

I feel the same way about Roenicke and, to some extent, Asadoorian. Not highly rated, perhaps, but the Reds moved these guys up pretty quickly. Roenicke, drafted in 2006, is now closing some games for the AA team. Asadoorian, just converted to pitcher, was moved up a level pretty early on.

Obviously, time will tell. (I also like Watson a lot and am interested to see how Wood develops after a terrific beginning.)

[Orenda]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I would rank Roenicke in the 12-20 range right now, but I would keep an eye on him for sure.

Nothing against Roenicke, after all I know nothing about him other than his stats and what you all provide. How nice would it be if he was in the 20-30 range? Thats where I'd like to see this system in the next couple years.

p.s. Try not to post here much because I'm out of my league, but I enjoy reading. Keep up the good material.

[TC81190]

Roenicke is also older.