Trade Joey Votto?

[texasdave]

On the major league roster the Reds currently have three players holding down the corner OF/1B positions. (Griffey, Dunn and Hatteberg) But with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce knocking on the door that is soon about to change. You can't plug a five-player peg into a three-position hole leaving the Reds with a surplus. This surplus is good for the Reds' organization. It gives them options. Trading one or more of these players is a reasonable option. I think ideally trading two of them is the way to go. An easy choice would be to deal away Scott Hatteberg. He is older and his value likely will never be higher. But who should be the second choice? I would find it very difficult to get rid of Jay Bruce. IMO his ceiling is simply too high. That leaves Griffey, Dunn and Votto. Now if I remember correctly the lesson to be learned from Moneyball is to take advantage of what is over-valued and under-valued in the ballplayer market place. The trend recently seems to be that top prospects are becoming over-valued. Teams seem to be very reluctant to give up their top prospects; so one would think that if a top-20 prospect was dangled there would be great interest in that prospect. This interest could likely drive up the return nicely. Couple this with the fact that there will be clubs willing to move proven talent for some level of salary relief, and WK would be smart to dangle Joey V. and see what sort of arms he could get in return. Then when Jay Bruce arrives in Cincinnati either Griffey or Dunn could be moved to first. And we all live happily ever after.

[joshnky]

To begin with I would be shocked if this happened because not only does the market over value prospests so do the Reds (and sometimes the market is correct). However, if the Reds were able to get a Dunn or Griffey-like return for Votto, meaning a couple major league ready arms (which I think is unrealistic), then its a great deal. However, the converse of the argument that you should trade whats currently valued (prospects) is that what you will want in return is also valued, meaning prospects.

I'm not sure this line of reasoning works well because there is a reason why prospects and pitching are valued so highly. Its because they're either cheap with high risk/reward or they're rare in the case of quality pitching.

[George Anderson]

I am from the school of thought that no one in this organization is untouchable if the return is right. However the return on Votto better be amazingly good because I have heard nothing but good things about this kid. Personally i would rather see him up on the Reds soon and lets see just how good or potentially good he may be!!

[The Snow Chief]

No. We must keep good young talent. I would want to trade Griffey before Votto. The deal would have to be amazing in terms of young star prospects for me to want to part withHarang, Bailey, Cueto, Hamilton, Phillips, Votto, or Bruce. With the possible exception of Edwin, everyone else would be on the trade market.

[Degenerate39]

Why would they trade Votto when they have two old guys at first base? I think Hatte and Conine's contracts are up after this year (Not sure though). Keep the young guys trade the old.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by degenerate10

Why would they trade Votto when they have two old guys at first base? I think Hatte and Conine's contracts are up after this year (Not sure though). Keep the young guys trade the old.

Did you not read the post...he is assuming the Reds dump Hatt and Conine. Leaving them with Bruce,Jr,Dunn in the corner OF and 1B. Leaving Freel and Hammy in CF. Give the OP a break.

[Degenerate39]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Did you not read the post...he is assuming the Reds dump Hatt and Conine. Leaving them with Bruce,Jr,Dunn in the corner OF and 1B. Leaving Freel and Hammy in CF. Give the OP a break.

No I didn't read the post I'm just saying.

[forfreelin04]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Did you not read the post...he is assuming the Reds dump Hatt and Conine. Leaving them with Bruce,Jr,Dunn in the corner OF and 1B. Leaving Freel and Hammy in CF. Give the OP a break.

They have Bruce, Votto, Jr. Dunn and Hamilton. Too many lefties. The Reds record versus lefties is a atriocious because no one this side of B Phil has had their way with lefties. I think Dunn will be gone (that day I will be dancing in the streets... just a personal preference) I would like to see the Reds deal Dunn, Votto, Hatteburg, Conine, Weathers, Stanton, Loshe, Freel and Valentin in return for solid prospects and maybe a few spare parts. Use the freed up money to sign a free agent right handed first baseman with some serious pop. Thus next year lineup looks like this assuming Bruce arrives.(big if) Not to mention, theres the chance of getting some other prospects via trade for a bench or possible starting role depending on the return.

CF Hamilton
3b EDe
CF Griffey
1b FA
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
SS Gonzo
C Ross

[DannyB]

Originally Posted by forfreelin04

They have Bruce, Votto, Jr. Dunn and Hamilton. Too many lefties. The Reds record versus lefties is a atriocious because no one this side of B Phil has had their way with lefties. I think Dunn will be gone (that day I will be dancing in the streets... just a personal preference) I would like to see the Reds deal Dunn, Votto, Hatteburg, Conine, Weathers, Stanton, Loshe, Freel and Valentin in return for solid prospects and maybe a few spare parts. Use the freed up money to sign a free agent right handed first baseman with some serious pop. Thus next year lineup looks like this assuming Bruce arrives.(big if) Not to mention, theres the chance of getting some other prospects via trade for a bench or possible starting role depending on the return.

CF Hamilton
3b EDe
CF Griffey
1b FA
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
SS Gonzo
C Ross

Did you ever think they are so bad against leftys because of the players that get the starts?
Freel? Hopper? Ross? Castro? They just dont hit.

[cacollinsmba]

Originally Posted by DannyB

Did you ever think they are so bad against leftys because of the players that get the starts?
Freel? Hopper? Ross? Castro? They just dont hit.

A great point. I get tired of hearing the "too many lefties" argument. Put the best players in, period.

I might add that, considering that GABP was built for a certain left handed hitter, this team might as well focus on building a team that is well suited for the stadium they play in, not one that looks nice on paper. As such, I see no reason to dump Dunn in order to pick up a right hander. Dunn has his faults but he will not be easily replaced.

[forfreelin04]

Originally Posted by DannyB

Did you ever think they are so bad against leftys because of the players that get the starts?
Freel? Hopper? Ross? Castro? They just dont hit.

Reds vs. left handed starters: 12-22
vs. right handed starters: 26-33


I'll add Conine to your list. Hence, the need for a good right handed bat. I never said it was a terrible thing to be overstocked with lefties. But I DO NOT want this team relying on Brandon Phillips and EdE for it's only source of right handed production.

The problem enlies in the fact both Dunn and Griff are EL stinko in late innings when a left hander is usually brought in to face them or against a closer type. Both the two are also not known for getting on base when the pitcher does throw strikes.
7th Inning and beyond AB AVG OBP SLG OPS

Adam Dunn 87 .225 .325 .353 .678
Ken Griffey Jr. 81 .202 .308 .315 .623

Who is our top performer 7th inning and late?

Scott Hatteberg 79 .316 .407 .506 .913


This jumps off the page. Hatteberg is our most disciplined hitter and the biggest contributor late in the game. WE NEED MORE OF THESE. I'm not saying we need three punch and judy hitters who hit singles. We just need someone who can have a professional at bat late in the game! I would prefer it to be a right handed bat to minimize the struggle between lefty lefty in the late innings.

[DannyB]

Originally Posted by degenerate10

Why would they trade Votto when they have two old guys at first base? I think Hatte and Conine's contracts are up after this year (Not sure though). Keep the young guys trade the old.

I think Conine got a 2yr deal. I didnt care for it at first but now I think he could be a good right handed bat off the bench.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by DannyB

I think Conine got a 2yr deal. I didnt care for it at first but now I think he could be a good right handed bat off the bench.

Conine is only signed through 2007.

[AmarilloRed]

If you trade Joey Votto; why not trade Homer Bailey? I am trying to be patient but it is difficult. Joey Votto will be our first baseman the next 15-20 years, and who knows if Dunn or Griffey will be here when Bruce makes the Reds. I can understand if youwould trade Hatteberg or Conine, but I wouldn't trade Votto or Bailey under any circumstances

[George Anderson]

Originally Posted by AmarilloRed

Joey Votto will be our first baseman the next 15-20 years

In the early 80's, myself and many others had no doubt that Paul Householder would be the next Reds star right fielder for the next 15-20 years, and we know how that panned out.

I am not advocating trading Votto but to label this guy as an untouchable, a can't miss prospect, or the first baseman for the next 15-20 years is just a tad bit premature.