Junior '06 vs. '07

[remdog]

I was looking at Juniors stats for '06 vs. '07 at 109 games played. Remarkably consistant with last year except that he's roughly doubled his walk totals with almost the same number of base hits to bump his average up 20 points and his OBP almost 70. His power numbers remain virturally the same. Oh yeah, he added 6 SBs. Pretty remarkable year for Junior. Especially with learning a 'new' position.

2006 109 428 62 108 19 0 27 72 208 39 78 0 0 .316 .486 .252 
2007 109 389 62 106 14 0 27 72 201 73 72 6 0 .384 .517 .272

Rem

[camisadelgolf]

At the beginning of the year, and he was possibly being tongue in cheek, he was saying that his wrist injury probably helped him because it taught him to be more patient (since he wouldn't able to pull all the balls he could right before the injury).

[GAC]

And while it's obvious that Jr has lost a step - and who wouldn't at not only his age, but also all the surgeries - but I don't think he has been playing a terrible RF. Of course I'm sure there are those who will tell me he has.

I've stated it before that I have no problem whatsoever with Jr playing out his contract and manning RF till a more suitable answer appears. His contract is up after next year, with a team buyout of 4 mil for '09, and that coincides with the possibility of the readiness of Jay Bruce.

And I think that is the approach that is being taken. What other options do we have with Jr as long as he can void any trade deal, and there haven't been too many teams expressing interest in him, due to age and injury history?

[remdog]

Originally Posted by GAC

but I don't think he has been playing a terrible RF. Of course I'm sure there are those who will tell me he has.

How could you have possibly known that! You must have been Karnak the Magnificent in another life! :

Rem

[jojo]

Originally Posted by remdog

How could you have possibly known that! You must have been Karnak the Magnificent in another life! :

Rem

Because reality seeps into our conscienciousness even though our subconscious may be rendered unconscious through existential impossibility?

[GAC]

Originally Posted by remdog

How could you have possibly known that! You must have been Karnak the Magnificent in another life!



Rem

I just got BIG crystal balls.

[jojo]

Unfortunately he has come down to earth after his great first half of the season:

First Half: .286/.390/.568
Second Half: .235/.361/.373

Jr's July was horrid while August has been more encouraging but I worry that despite his great first half, his year-end totals will be consistent with a trend downward over his last several seasons.

[GAC]

Originally Posted by jojo

Unfortunately he has come down to earth after his great first half of the season:

First Half: .286/.390/.568
Second Half: .235/.361/.373

Jr's July was horrid while August has been more encouraging but I worry that despite his great first half, his year-end totals will be consistent with a trend downward over his last several seasons.

But you can find even the best of players who have a mediocre to bad month during the course of the season. Consistency is sometimes a hard thing to come by. Lets see what he does overall.

[remdog]

Originally Posted by GAC

But you can find even the best of players who have a mediocre to bad month during the course of the season. Consistency is sometimes a hard thing to come by. Lets see what he does overall.

I agree with that. Unless he gets hurt tomorrow (I know, I know. I shouldn't even mention that)he's a virtual lock to surpass last year in every category.

Rem

[jojo]

Originally Posted by GAC

But you can find even the best of players who have a mediocre to bad month during the course of the season. Consistency is sometimes a hard thing to come by. Lets see what he does overall.

Here's the bigger point though. Jr's overall value as a RFer just isn't an advantage for the Reds. Among fulltime RFers, PBP metrics like UZR thinks Jr's the worst defensive right fielder in the majors (he's probably a legitimate -20 defender). Offensively, he's on pace for 91 RC if he gets 600 PA. NL average for LF will likely be somewhere around 78. Given his defense, his total impact to the RS/RA for the Reds might be something below that of an average right fielder. Thats pretty much meh.

[GAC]

Originally Posted by jojo

Here's the bigger point though. Jr's overall value as a RFer just isn't an advantage for the Reds. Among fulltime RFers, PBP metrics like UZR thinks Jr's the worst defensive right fielder in the majors (he's probably a legitimate -20 defender).

thinks? Don't they know if he is the worst RFer in MLB? Can't they show something more concrete?

Offensively, he's on pace for 91 RC if he gets 600 PA. NL average for LF will likely be somewhere around 78.

So that is above average. But he's a RFer, not LFer. And how does any of the above, runs created (which is offense), have anything to do with gauging his defensive ability/play in RF?

By the below?..... runs scored vs runs allowed

Given his defense, his total impact to the RS/RA for the Reds might be something below that of an average right fielder. Thats pretty much meh.

Again - might be?

Respectfully, it sounds like you're making assumptions and using guess work when utilizing the analogy of runs scored vs runs allowed.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by GAC

thinks? Don't they know if he is the worst RFer in MLB? Can't they show something more concrete?

Based upon UZR, JR is the worst rated RFer among starting RFers in the majors. It's crystal clear from UZR's perspective. I used "thinks"-that's MY language. When I only refer to one PBP metric to support a point, generally I try to soften the language.

Originally Posted by GAC

Offensively, he's on pace for 91 RC if he gets 600 PA. NL average for LF will likely be somewhere around 78.

So that is above average. But he's a RFer, not LFer. And how does any of the above, runs created (which is offense), have anything to do with gauging his defensive ability/play in RF?

By the below?..... runs scored vs runs allowed

I think it should be fairly obvious that the "LF" was a typo and should have read "RF" but I'm sorry for any confusion that may have caused.

The point of considering both offense and defense was to get a true sense of Jr's actual worth. It's not that his bat in some way informs his defense. Rather it's his defense that cancels out the the impact his bat has on the Reds run differential.

As it is, Jr's bat looks to be maybe a win or so above league average in RF assuming July was just a blip. His defense completely wipes out that advantage and really makes him a liability overall as an outfielder. Jr no longer is an elite player. If the Reds insist upon playing him in the outfield, Jr really is simply trying to tread water and the Reds are often at a disadvantage.

Given the drag represented by his glove, there is tremendous pressure on Jr's bat. Frankly, his bat isn't good enough to rise to the occasion as an outfielder. His range really is that bad.

Originally Posted by GAC

Respectfully, it sounds like you're making assumptions and using guess work when utilizing the analogy of runs scored vs runs allowed.

What I am doing is using ranges rather than speaking in absolutes while erroring in Jr's favor with each estimate. The only real assumptions I've made are that Jr isn't as bad defensively as UZR suggests he's been through the ASB (it thinks Jr is much worse than an -20 defender given 150 games) and that Jr's July was simply a rough patch and he's more likely to finish the year closer to his current season totals than his July split.

Nobody has a crystal ball. I'm not sure why that would be used as an argument against an estimate.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by jojo

Unfortunately he has come down to earth after his great first half of the season:

First Half: .286/.390/.568
Second Half: .235/.361/.373

Jr's July was horrid while August has been more encouraging but I worry that despite his great first half, his year-end totals will be consistent with a trend downward over his last several seasons.

At least he's still walking. I have always thought Junior's key was walking. If he remains patient, the power will come.

[KoryMac5]

He is after all 38 and in the dog days of summer Mack and Narron haven't been able to get him a breather. I am sure this has something to do with his recent swoon. When I saw him in Pittsburgh he did look a bit tired.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Has anyone else noticed that Griffey looks like he's in much better shape this season than in the past? Less of a double-chin, not quite as chubby, looks a little stronger.