End of Year Top 20 Prospect List

[Benihana]

With the end of the minor league season upon us, I thought I'd provide my own end of the year version of The Reds Top 20 Prospects List (with their projected positions at the big league level), keeping in mind I tend to discount the guys in the lower levels.

GRADE A

1. Jay Bruce OF, 20, AAA
2. Johnny Cueto RHP, 21, AAA
3. Homer Bailey RHP, 21, AAA
4. Joey Votto 1B/OF, 23, AAA

GRADE B

5. Travis Wood LHP, 20, A+
6. Matt Maloney LHP, 23, AAA
7. Drew Stubbs CF, 22, A
8. Daniel Dorn OF, 22, AA
9. Todd Frazier SS/3B, 21, A
10. Juan Francisco 3B/OF, 20, A

GRADE C

11. Sean Watson RHP, 21, A+
12. Sam LeCure RHP, 23, AA
13. Adam Rosales INF, 24, AA
14. Josh Roenicke RHP, 24, AA
15. Chris Valaika 2B/3B, 21, A+
16. Brandon Waring 3B, 21, R
17. Daryl Thompson RHP, 21, A+
18. Ben Jukich LHP, 24, A+
19. Justin Turner 2B, 22, A+
20. Devin Mesoraco C, 19, R

OTHERS TO WATCH

Carlos Fisher RHP, 24, AA
Kyle Lotzkar RHP, 17, R
Chris Dickerson CF, 25, AAA
Craig Tatum C, 24, AA
Pedro Viola, LHP, 23, AA

[klw]

Apparently you share the Reds lack of love for Carlos Guevara.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by klw

Apparently you share the Reds lack of love for Carlos Guevara.

It was Guevara or Viola for that fifth spot on the watch list, I gave the nod to Viola because he's younger and left-handed.

[fearofpopvol1]

Where would Stubbs have ranked on your list at the start of this year or even mid-season?

[Scrap Irony]

Mine are fairly close:

1. Bruce-- Larry Walker or Billy Ashley? In 2007, he's been nigh unstoppable.
2. Bailey-- Ceiling is ridiculous, but he definately took a major step back this season.
3. Cueto-- Great stuff. Could challenge Bailey as top ROY candidate next season?
4. Votto-- Last of four legitimate ROY candidates in Cincinnati. Is his bat good enough for 1B?
5. Maloney-- Southpaws earn extra credit. So do K machines, despite lack of stuff.
6. Dorn-- Resume earns nod over better defender, Stubbs. Great power year.
7. Stubbs-- Speaking of power, can we just stick him lower in the order for good now?
8. Wood-- Biggest drop in Top Ten. But he's lefty, young, and projectable. Nice to have as the 8th best prospect in your pipeline, IMO.
9. Frazier-- Blasted Rookie level pitchers. If he stays at SS, he's Ripken-esque. If not, ehhh.
10. Valaika-- Don't lose too much hope. The FSL is notorious for sapping offensive numbers.
11. Waring-- Expect 40+ homers next year. And 200+ K's. Still, the eye works for him.
12. Francisco-- A year younger and a level higher than Waring. Lots of pop, lots of whiff.
13. Rosales-- When healthy, he's hit like mad. If he can play SS, he's special. If not, he's serviceable. Perhaps more.
14. Lotzcar-- K machine and supremely young. No truth to the rumor he hasn't yet hit puberty.
15. Watson-- Mid-season, he was pushing the top five. Long season hurt him. Moving him back to closer would send former UT player shooting up the list.
16. Roenicke-- Speaking of shooting up the list, wow, did he come from nowhere. Most likely to be on the Louisville/ Cincinnati shuttle next season.
17. Fisher-- Great first half, lousy second half. Let's hope his first half is indicative of future results.
18. Thompson-- The never-forgotten portion of Bowden's Blunder may perhaps prove promise to poisonous pens poised to pick apart his penchant for plebian seasons.
19. Tatum/ Perez-- Cincinnati needs a catcher desperately and both could be answers. Both hit this season and are old for their levels. At this point, it's a wing and a prayer anyway.
20. Herr-- A free agent at season's end, he's had a very good season and has played the hot corner and 2B in AAA. Would be a nice addition as a 25th player, but Krivsky collects extra infielders like bottle caps. Still, a shout out to a career minor leaguer. Nice job, yo.

Others worth mentioning:
Mesoraco
Viola
LaClure
Guevara
Jukich
Turner (2B)

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

9. Frazier-- Blasted Rookie level pitchers. If he stays at SS, he's Ripken-esque. If not, ehhh.

I always thought Frazier was projected to be a 3rd baseman in the future. According to Mario-Rijo's prospect profile, "His range is below-average, perhaps average at best. Frazier lacks first-step quickness to stay at short".

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

18. Thompson-- The never-forgotten portion of Bowden's Blunder may perhaps prove promise to poisonous pens poised to pick apart his penchant for plebian seasons.

Wow! Nice alliteration!

[New Fever]

Neftali Soto sure is a forgotten man. Remember when a strong debut got a top 3 round pick in the Top 5 of the Reds system (ala Travis Wood 2005 was ranked 3rd). Soto did hit over .300 with some pop, he has to be in the top 20, doesn't he?

[GoReds33]

You all might think I am a bit stupid, but Waring would be fifth on my list. I obdviously can't put him in the big 4 consideration but is his numbers prove consistant we could have a terrific power hitter. He's young, and powerful. I just hope he cuts down the k's.

[dougdirt]

A top 15 pick in all of baseball this year an Mesoraco didn't even make your top 20 Scrap Irony? Tough crowd I guess....

[HumnHilghtFreel]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

A top 15 pick in all of baseball this year an Mesoraco didn't even make your top 20 Scrap Irony? Tough crowd I guess....

He'd probably be close to out in mine as well. The fact that he's a strong defensive catcher should always help. His IsoOBP shows a lot of promise for him too. I really look forward to seeing what he can do next year after having some time off to prepare.

[Scrap Irony]

Both Soto and Mesoraco are so young I've got socks older. That's okay. There's plenty of time for them to move up. And, before you mention Lotzkar, he's a level ahead and another year or two younger. Plus, he's pitched really, really well.

[Patrick Bateman]

I'd say a couple months of production really shouldn't move him this drastically going from the 20 range to #7. When evalutaing prospects, I think you need to really look at potential more than stats, because theoretically, the potential should lead to stats.

I'm more saying this because Benihana and I have discussed this topic ad nauseum. Stubb's rank hasn't changed much in my mind because I was expecting this kind of surge at some point either this year or at the beginning of next year. So I'm pleased he's finally getting the recognition, but he should have never been found at the latter end of 20. I think your doing something wrong with your prospect evaluation when they vary so much every couple of months.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Austin Kearns

I'd say a couple months of production really shouldn't move him this drastically going from the 20 range to #7. When evalutaing prospects, I think you need to really look at potential more than stats, because theoretically, the potential should lead to stats.

I'm more saying this because Benihana and I have discussed this topic ad nauseum. Stubb's rank hasn't changed much in my mind because I was expecting this kind of surge at some point either this year or at the beginning of next year. So I'm pleased he's finally getting the recognition, but he should have never been found at the latter end of 20. I think your doing something wrong with your prospect evaluation when they vary so much every couple of months.

Is this directed at me? If so, I'm not sure which variance you're talking about. For the first half of this year, I said that Stubbs was in the 10-15 range on my list. Obviously his second-half surge has lifted him on almost every list, on mine it lifted him to #7. I think there is nothing wrong with that. Any prospect list is going to contain some kind of combination of tools and results. You simply cannot ignore one for the other.

[GoReds33]

Devin still has plenty of time. I don't think we should worry about a first round pick unless he is excessivly awful, or has a very serious injury. I have high hopes for this kid.