Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

JinAZ · 03-31-2008, 01:45 AM

As I type this, Opening Day is just over 12 hours away. And with it has come Dusty Baker's first official lineup as a Reds manager, courtsey of John Fay:

Corey Patterson CF
Jeff Keppinger SS
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Scott Hatteberg 1B
Javier Valentin C
Aaron Harang P

Among the most common (and convincing) critiques of Dusty's managerial skills is his selection of leadoff hitters. Statheads "know" that OBP rules all in the leadoff slot, right? Patterson and his PECOTA-projected 0.313 OBP is therefore an awful choice. Right?

I'm pretty sure it is. But I'm not positive, and I'd like to know how big of a deal it is. Fortunately, there's an excellent tool that can answer just this kind of question: John Beamer's Markov model from the Hardball Times 2008 Annual. Because it uses Markov Chains (described here), Beamer's model is a much better approach to understanding the dynamic nature of lineup interactions than simple regression equations (like those used in David Pinto's oft-cited lineup tool).

So, I'd like to set up a Lineup Showdown! To that end, I'm requesting that each of you reply to this post with two lineups:

1. Your "best" lineup using only Dusty Baker's Opening Day players.
2. Your "best," lineup with your pick of players from the Reds' organization.

If you want to submit more or fewer than two lineups (e.g. one vs. righties, one vs. lefties), go ahead. I will take all submitted lineups--along with any others that Baker uses this week--and plug them into Beamer's Markov model, along with 2008 PECOTA projections, and report the results back later this week.

Markov will tell us, for each lineup:
1. Its estimate for how many runs it should produce per game.
2. How many times each batting slot should lead off an inning.
3. Complete run expectancy frequency matrices for every out base & out state.

Should be fun! -Justin

Note: this is cross-posted from my blog, but I'm hoping to get as many submissions as I can. The more I get, the more interesting the results.

mlbfan30 · 03-31-2008, 02:14 AM

Scott Hatteberg 1B
Jeff Keppinger SS
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Corey Patterson CF
Javier Valentin C
Aaron Harang P

As the Dusty's players

JinAZ · 03-31-2008, 02:26 AM

Thanks for this, and for the lineup in your thread! -j

LouisvilleCARDS · 03-31-2008, 02:55 AM

I agree completely with what Baker is using to be honest. Not only that, but I think its such a ridiculously overrated concept switching a guy here or there will suddenly make the team win 10-20 more games or something. Encarnacion had a pretty poor spring, so I might move him down to 7 and move Hatteberg to the 6 spot. That's all I can think of. Since we traded Hamilton, we're missing some of the firepower we could have.

Mutaman · 03-31-2008, 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LouisvilleCARDS

I agree completely with what Baker is using to be honest. Not only that, but I think its such a ridiculously overrated concept switching a guy here or there will suddenly make the team win 10-20 more games or something. .

You don't understand, its a ritual here at Red Zoan that who bats 7th and who bats 8th makes the difference between being world champs and finishing behind the Pirates.

The bottom line- If Cueto, Edison, and the bull pen come through, we'll do fine. If they don't , we won't. And it doesn't make any difference if Dusty bats himself leadoff.

PastAndPending · 03-31-2008, 03:23 AM

Norris Hopper CF
Jeff Keppinger SS
Ken Griffey Jr RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Joey Votto 1B
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Javy Valentin C
-------------------------------
Ryan Freel 3B
Jeff Keppinger SS
Jay Bruce CF
Ken Griffey RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Joey Votto 1B
David Ross C

DannyB · 03-31-2008, 05:43 AM

Keppinger
Dunn
Griffey
Encarnation
Votto
Phillips
Hopper
Valentin Dusty
-------------------------
Hopper
Dunn
Griffey
Encarnation
Votto
Phillips
Gonzales
Ross Me
-----------------------

muethibp · 03-31-2008, 07:49 AM

I think 90% or more of us would agree that Dunn needs to be higher in the order and Patterson lower.

Va Red Fan · 03-31-2008, 08:49 AM

I can't make a better line-up than Dusty Baker.

Va Red Fan · 03-31-2008, 08:50 AM

I think it's foolish to think I could.

James B. · 03-31-2008, 09:32 AM

1. Norris Hopper CF
2. Jeff Keppinger SS
3. Ken Griffey Jr. RF
4. Adam Dunn LF
5. Brandon Phillips 2B
6. Joey Votto 1B
7. Edwin Encarnarcion 3B
8. Javier Valentin C

OesterPoster · 03-31-2008, 09:38 AM

Dunn is too low, plain and simple. Batting 5th potentially robs him of an extra AB during some games. The same can be said about Hatteberg batting 7th. Your best hitters should be high in the lineup, regardless of whether they're a lefty or righty. I also think the whole lefty-righty-lefty-righty thing is overrated.

I'd go with:

Hatteberg
Keppinger
Griffey
Dunn
Phillips
Patterson
Encarnacion
Valentin
Harang

smoke6 · 03-31-2008, 09:44 AM

I would have Votto in there instead of Hatte. Other than that, I think our OD lineup is great (at least until Jay is up).

texasdave · 03-31-2008, 10:36 AM

Keppinger
Votto
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Phillips
Ross
Hopper
Pitcher

Rinse. Repeat.

Trace's Daddy · 03-31-2008, 11:48 AM

For Opening Day I would have:

Scott Hatteberg 1B
Adam Dunn
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
LFJeff Keppinger SS
Javier Valentin C
Corey Patterson CF
Aaron Harang P

I like a guy with speed batting in front of the pitcher.

03-31-2008, 01:45 AM	#1
JinAZ Basement-Dwelling Blogger Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Arizona Posts: 144	Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? As I type this, Opening Day is just over 12 hours away. And with it has come Dusty Baker's first official lineup as a Reds manager, courtsey of John Fay: Corey Patterson CF Jeff Keppinger SS Ken Griffey Jr. RF Brandon Phillips 2B Adam Dunn LF Edwin Encarnacion 3B Scott Hatteberg 1B Javier Valentin C Aaron Harang P Among the most common (and convincing) critiques of Dusty's managerial skills is his selection of leadoff hitters. Statheads "know" that OBP rules all in the leadoff slot, right? Patterson and his PECOTA-projected 0.313 OBP is therefore an awful choice. Right? I'm pretty sure it is. But I'm not positive, and I'd like to know how big of a deal it is. Fortunately, there's an excellent tool that can answer just this kind of question: John Beamer's Markov model from the Hardball Times 2008 Annual. Because it uses Markov Chains (described here), Beamer's model is a much better approach to understanding the dynamic nature of lineup interactions than simple regression equations (like those used in David Pinto's oft-cited lineup tool). So, I'd like to set up a Lineup Showdown! To that end, I'm requesting that each of you reply to this post with two lineups: 1. Your "best" lineup using only Dusty Baker's Opening Day players. 2. Your "best," lineup with your pick of players from the Reds' organization. If you want to submit more or fewer than two lineups (e.g. one vs. righties, one vs. lefties), go ahead. I will take all submitted lineups--along with any others that Baker uses this week--and plug them into Beamer's Markov model, along with 2008 PECOTA projections, and report the results back later this week. Markov will tell us, for each lineup: 1. Its estimate for how many runs it should produce per game. 2. How many times each batting slot should lead off an inning. 3. Complete run expectancy frequency matrices for every out base & out state. Should be fun! -Justin Note: this is cross-posted from my blog, but I'm hoping to get as many submissions as I can. The more I get, the more interesting the results. __________________ Blog: Basement Dwellers Also: Beyond the Box Score Last edited by JinAZ; 03-31-2008 at 01:53 AM.

03-31-2008, 02:14 AM	#2
mlbfan30 Member Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 544	Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? Scott Hatteberg 1B Jeff Keppinger SS Adam Dunn LF Edwin Encarnacion 3B Ken Griffey Jr. RF Brandon Phillips 2B Corey Patterson CF Javier Valentin C Aaron Harang P As the Dusty's players

03-31-2008, 02:26 AM	#3
JinAZ Basement-Dwelling Blogger Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Arizona Posts: 144	Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? Thanks for this, and for the lineup in your thread! -j __________________ Blog: Basement Dwellers Also: Beyond the Box Score

03-31-2008, 02:55 AM	#4
LouisvilleCARDS Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 664	Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? I agree completely with what Baker is using to be honest. Not only that, but I think its such a ridiculously overrated concept switching a guy here or there will suddenly make the team win 10-20 more games or something. Encarnacion had a pretty poor spring, so I might move him down to 7 and move Hatteberg to the 6 spot. That's all I can think of. Since we traded Hamilton, we're missing some of the firepower we could have.

03-31-2008, 03:23 AM	#6
PastAndPending Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 9	Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? Norris Hopper CF Jeff Keppinger SS Ken Griffey Jr RF Brandon Phillips 2B Adam Dunn LF Joey Votto 1B Edwin Encarnacion 3B Javy Valentin C ------------------------------- Ryan Freel 3B Jeff Keppinger SS Jay Bruce CF Ken Griffey RF Brandon Phillips 2B Adam Dunn LF Joey Votto 1B David Ross C

03-31-2008, 05:43 AM	#7
DannyB Member Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Fort Lauderdale Posts: 793	Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? Keppinger Dunn Griffey Encarnation Votto Phillips Hopper Valentin Dusty ------------------------- Hopper Dunn Griffey Encarnation Votto Phillips Gonzales Ross Me -----------------------

03-31-2008, 07:49 AM	#8
muethibp Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 237	Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? I think 90% or more of us would agree that Dunn needs to be higher in the order and Patterson lower.

03-31-2008, 08:49 AM	#9
Va Red Fan Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 117	Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? I can't make a better line-up than Dusty Baker.

03-31-2008, 08:50 AM	#10
Va Red Fan Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 117	Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? I think it's foolish to think I could.

03-31-2008, 09:32 AM	#11
James B. Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Cookeville, Tennessee Posts: 334	Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? 1. Norris Hopper CF 2. Jeff Keppinger SS 3. Ken Griffey Jr. RF 4. Adam Dunn LF 5. Brandon Phillips 2B 6. Joey Votto 1B 7. Edwin Encarnarcion 3B 8. Javier Valentin C

03-31-2008, 09:38 AM	#12
OesterPoster Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: West-central Ohio Posts: 1,911	Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? Dunn is too low, plain and simple. Batting 5th potentially robs him of an extra AB during some games. The same can be said about Hatteberg batting 7th. Your best hitters should be high in the lineup, regardless of whether they're a lefty or righty. I also think the whole lefty-righty-lefty-righty thing is overrated. I'd go with: Hatteberg Keppinger Griffey Dunn Phillips Patterson Encarnacion Valentin Harang

03-31-2008, 09:44 AM	#13
smoke6 Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Topsail, NC Posts: 369	Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? I would have Votto in there instead of Hatte. Other than that, I think our OD lineup is great (at least until Jay is up). __________________ SECOND PLACE DOESN'T CONCERN ME

03-31-2008, 10:36 AM	#14
texasdave Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 9,538	Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? Keppinger Votto Dunn Encarnacion Griffey Phillips Ross Hopper Pitcher Rinse. Repeat.

03-31-2008, 11:48 AM	#15
Trace's Daddy Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Radford, Virginia Posts: 282	Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker? For Opening Day I would have: Scott Hatteberg 1B Adam Dunn Ken Griffey Jr. RF Brandon Phillips 2B Edwin Encarnacion 3B LFJeff Keppinger SS Javier Valentin C Corey Patterson CF Aaron Harang P I like a guy with speed batting in front of the pitcher.

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