Bailey - Ride to Stardom or Cut Bait?

[I(heart)Freel]

Before the Freel detour, this week seemed all about the Dye-Bailey deal (that never was).

Found it interesting how divided folks here were on Bailey.

Will he sort out his issues - some of which are injury-based and some head-based - and become a solid major league starter in the near future?

-OR-

Has he shown, as so many do, that you can fire a ball past minor leaguers and get away with it, but you can't do that to pros? Is he the pitching equivalent of Brandon Larson? Is he too stubborn to adapt and learn?

Use this thread to make your best case either way for Bailey. Will be anxious to hear the arguments for and against. Because if he will sort it out, you dont want to trade him now, at this low point. But if he won't be good, then trading now while he still has his stud rep IS the thing to do.

Why do you think he'll be good/great OR why do you think he won't live up to his hype?

[roby]

Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel

Before the Freel detour, this week seemed all about the Dye-Bailey deal (that never was).

Found it interesting how divided folks here were on Bailey.

Will he sort out his issues - some of which are injury-based and some head-based - and become a solid major league starter in the near future?

-OR-

Has he shown, as so many do, that you can fire a ball past minor leaguers and get away with it, but you can't do that to pros? Is he the pitching equivalent of Brandon Larson? Is he too stubborn to adapt and learn?

Use this thread to make your best case either way for Bailey. Will be anxious to hear the arguments for and against. Because if he will sort it out, you dont want to trade him now, at this low point. But if he won't be good, then trading now while he still has his stud rep IS the thing to do.

Why do you think he'll be good/great OR why do you think he won't live up to his hype?

I am certainly not against trading Bailey if the right deal comes along. But, if the reds end up keeping him, I think it might be wise to use him in the bullpen as a long man/mop up guy. He may actually excel and build his confidence back up. I personally think he is a strange mix of too little confidence and too much hard-headedness (won't listen to coaches...thinking he already knows it all). I would deal him for Dye or someone like him...but if not, Homer's future may indeed be in the bullpen!

[Orodle]

AGAINST

He simply does not have the stuff. Consistently around 91-92mph and doesn't hit his spots with his fastball. His breaking ball does have some good break (but inconsistent) and can't throw it over the plate. I'm just not evaluating Bailey on this past season's "stuff" but also his debut. Ya he came out that first inning on his major league career hitting 97-98mph...but come the second inning he wasn't nearly around that. I think he is the result of a lot of hype from an organization that hasn't seen a top of the line starter since who know when.
All that said and I haven't even began on his diva issues.

My idea (if Cincy should keep him around). Move him to the pen. There he could possibly crank it up for an inning or two at 95mph+ and concentrate on developing just one secondary pitch. Now, I'm definately one to value starting pitching over EVERYTHING but honestly I don't think Bailey will be a "good" starter. However, I think he could develope into a "good" reliever.....but who knows how he would take that move.....my guess is he would throw a fit.

I'll be the first to eat crow. However, if I hadn't heard a thing about Homer (scouting report, hype, ect) and just saw him pitch and evaluated him purely on stuff.........nothing would stand out.

[WildcatFan]

I'm not sure he still has the stud rep. Whenever I hear teams talk about him, it's always "a 22-year-old right-hander who the Reds used to be high on." I think we missed his best trade value period as a prospect, so now it's time to ride him until he gets some value as a Major League pitcher. If it doesn't happen, he goes the road of so many other minor leaguers.

[SarasotaFan]

Send him to the Expos.....

[CRedsLarkin11]

If he could get someone like Dye here(which it looks like he couldn't) then I would trade him. There are no outfield options that are worth a red cent in the reds' price range in the free agent market and I don't think Homer really has the stuff to be dominant at this level. He does not have Cueto or Volquez stuff. He may end up being a good pitcher down the line because he learns how to pitch but he does not have elite stuff. But as negative as that sounds...his trade value is nothing and I would probably hang onto him and wait for the less than likely future success than throw him away.

[JayBruceFan]

Give the guy a chance

The Reds pushed him through the system too fast for someone as young as he is.

He should have been in Class A for at least 2-3 seasons before moving on

And he shouldn't even have sniffed the majors until 2009 at the earliest.

[Orenda]

Originally Posted by JayBruceFan

Give the guy a chance

The Reds pushed him through the system too fast for someone as young as he is.

He should have been in Class A for at least 2-3 seasons before moving on

And he shouldn't even have sniffed the majors until 2009 at the earliest.

That's how I feel. I think the Reds should start Bailey in AAA again regardless of how he does in ST. If he pitches well then the Reds scouts and talent evaluators will have to earn their paychecks and decide if the guy should be dealt with his "top pitching prospect" status or if he can become a solid pitcher in the big leagues.

The next time Bailey comes up he needs to get a lot of starts regardless of results. Aaron Harang had about 300 innings of pro baseball before he blossomed into a solid starter but he had the luxury of being on bad teams, which let him develop. Does anyone know how many more options Bailey has left?

[JayBruceFan]

And he wasn't under as much scrutiny as Bailey is.

[Farnsie]

Don't have much new to add about his repertoire but I must say I'm rooting for him. Saw his last game of this season against Milwaukee and I remember his last pitch, he was really focused, men on bases (due to errors I believe?) and the hitter got a piece of it, took a strange hop and barely made it past a diving Phillips. When I saw his dissapointment I really felt bad for him during that play. Rooting for a turnaround this year.

[TheNext44]

I don't think that there is any need to cut bait on Bailey, he is only 22 and still has a great arm. I agree that the Reds screwed him up by rushing him and at the same time trying to develop him. Restricting which pitches he uses and adding new pitches is not something you do if you also plan on calling him up. You either let him work out his issues and develop, or you just let him be and bring him up when you need him. You can't do both without messing him up.

The question is how screwed up is he? I am pretty positive that he will be a solid major league pitcher someday. Can the Reds wait two or more years for him to fully develop and find himself? Or should they trade him now for below market value and let someone else deal with his issues?

[laxtonto]

Very unflatterying review of Baileys mechanics...

Link

Baseball-intellect.com (a site whose writer is a big fan of Paul Nyman) wrote a bit about Homer Bailey and his mechanics, stating that he liked his scap load and elbow rotation into release (both of which he claimed were better in 2006). Well, the reason that he isn't getting better "scap load" in 2008 could have a lot to do with the fact that it is inherently injurious and it leads to damaged shoulders, so as a result, he's not doing it because he already feels a lot of pain from his mechanics.

Nevertheless, the image above shows that Homer Bailey clings to the only way he knows how to throw a baseball, which involves reverse rotating the shoulders, extreme early pronation, and a severely forced horizontal abduction of the shoulder.

Tempo: Bailey is 21 frames from maximal leg lift to footplant. Average to Below Average.

Arm Action: Horrible. Not only do Homer Bailey's shoulders begin to turn while the ball is below the shoulder line, but he has a forced scapular loading pattern caused by arm drag and he exhibits signs of early pronation. I expect Homer Bailey to experience both shoulder and elbow surgery in the future (but I would bet on shoulder surgery first). Extremely Bad.

Ball Release: Also pretty bad, since he is actively supinating through release to throw his curveball and cut fastball. At least he sticks his pitching arm shoulder into the target reasonably well. Bad.

Followthrough: This is also really bad since he has a lazy glove arm, and instead of continuing his momentum forward, he pivots on his stride leg (watch the full video). Bad.

Homer Bailey is a textbook example of how not to throw a baseball, right up there with Anthony Reyes, B.J. Ryan, and Mark Prior.

Nice video breakdown in the link as well...

[Ghosts of 1990]

Originally Posted by laxtonto

Very unflatterying review of Baileys mechanics...

Link



Nice video breakdown in the link as well...

makes me cringe just thinking about it