I don't see how in the World it's possible for this team to win less than 85 games...

[Kingspoint]

Here's why.....

I think I'm being pretty conservative here....

Volquez....................17 Wins
Harang.....................16 Wins
Arroyo......................13 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................8 Wins
Bailey.........................5 Wins

That right there is 71 Wins. I expect the remaining Pitchers that will put in significant time with the team to average 2 Wins each.

Nick Masset (R)............2 Wins
Daryl Thompson (R).......2 Wins
Francisco Cordero (R)....2 Wins
Jared Burton (R)...........2 Wins
David Weathers (R).......2 Wins
Arthur Rhodes (L).........2 Wins
Bill Bray (L)..................2 Wins
Mike Lincoln (R)............2 Wins
Ramon Ramirez (R)........2 Wins
Josh Roenicke (R).........2 Wins
Aaron Fultz (L).............2 Wins
Daniel Herrera (L)..........2 Wins

That's another 24 wins for a total of 95 Wins. And, I thought those were very conservative estimates. I see about 5 wins from Daryl Thompson. Harang may not get 8 wins, so a big dropoff could go there. Volquez might not win 10 games, so a big dropoff could go there.

But, my point is that our starting pitchers are among the 7 best staffs in all of baseball.

If I wanted to be really conservative and account for possible injuries and poor hitting, I could go like this:

Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins

But, that's still 67 Wins, and assuming the remaining pitchers average 2 Wins each that would still add 22 Wins to the 67 for a Total of 89 Wins.

We are last year's Arizona Diamondbacks. Outstanding Starting pitching every game without a ton of power and a lot of youth in the lineup.

They threw 9 shutouts. They were shutout 6 times themselves. They led their division for 136 Days, before fading. Their longest losing streak was 6. Their longest winning streak was 8. They got off to a red-hot start and were 20-8 (lost 2 of 3 to the REDS Opening Weekend) at the end of April, before finishing 82-80, 2 games out of 1st place as Miracle Manny overtook them. (They went 4-15 from Aug 22-Sep 14)

With our great starting pitching, we have a really great chance to have a really fast start.

[wojo1025]

Unfortunately as it looks right now, I'll take the under on Harang

[mroby85]

Originally Posted by wojo1025

Unfortunately as it looks right now, I'll take the under on Harang

I agree, I'm starting to wonder about Harang. I look for Edinson to have a solid year, but 17 is tough to expect. I could see Cueto with more than 12 however.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Originally Posted by wojo1025

Unfortunately as it looks right now, I'll take the under on Harang

+1.

He'll probably never win 16 again.

[Kingspoint]

Originally Posted by JayBruce32

+1.

He'll probably never win 16 again.

You can step away from the ledge now.

[Jerome]

or worst case scenario...

Volquez--13
Harang--9
Arroyo--10
Cueto--10
4th combined--8

50 Wins + the 24 relief wins = 74 wins (coincedentally last years win total)

So, your conservative best case scenario of 95 wins and my worst case scenario (a scenario I've gotten used to in Cincinnati) of 74 wins averaged out and totalled is.......

84.5 wins

I would say it's pretty realistic for us to finish under 85 wins. But I like what you've done. It does give me more hope. But should one set oneself up for failure? Not my style.

http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

[JBChance]

Originally Posted by Jerome

or worst case scenario...

Volquez--13
Harang--9
Arroyo--10
Cueto--10
4th combined--8

50 Wins + the 24 relief wins = 74 wins (coincedentally last years win total)

So, your conservative best case scenario of 95 wins and my worst case scenario (a scenario I've gotten used to in Cincinnati) of 74 wins averaged out and totalled is.......

84.5 wins

I would say it's pretty realistic for us to finish under 85 wins. But I like what you've done. It does give me more hope. But should one set oneself up for failure? Not my style.

http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

You've hit it on the head if Harang has a year like I'm afraid he will. If he bounces back to the 16 wins, we'll hit the 85 win mark.

[terminator]

Well, if you want to analyze it by pitcher wins (and I wouldn't), I wouldn't call it conservative. I'd call it extremely optimistic. Last year we had two pitchers with double digit win figures. One of them (Arroyo 15-11) had an awful ERA (4.77) that was the same as (6-17) Harang. Even your "conservative" scenario has all pitchers #1-#5 at double digit wins. That's not a conservative scenario.

FWIW, there were 40 pitchers in the NL who won 10+ games last year. 15 teams of course. Only 24 NL pitchers had 12 or more wins (which is the minimum you are projecting for our #1 to #5 spots).

But it is spring and I am getting hopeful too . . . I think the pitching is pretty good but I don't know how the offense will be. It seems like they should be improved when I think about the positions and player development, but I remember some painful low scoring games after Dunn and Griffey departed.

[jmac]

The original posters projections look good. However, sometimes the "wins" may depend on run support/ Blown saves etc.
Example is last season, Harang should have had a few more wins early but got little run support. Cueto as well.

I will be happy though with the original projections.

[redsfan1966]

i like your enthusiasm....but it is very possible for this team to finish under 85 wins....Volquez ends up with the sophomore jinx....injuries.....BPhill tanks as the clean up hitter....Encarnacion continues to underachieve...

[Roush's socks]

Trying to project a team's record this way is not effective. A better way is to project how many runs the team will score, based on the projected lineup, and how many they will give up. Then use the Pythagorean formula to project W/L. If the Reds have good defense, team speed, "baseball IQ", clutch factor, etc; they might finish with a record slightly better than the Pythagorean.

That methgod is also more or less meaningless. No one really knows if Jay Bruce is going to be 34/105/.295 or 21/81/.275. And no knows if Volquez is going to be as good as last year, or even better, or the sophomore jinx. Cueto is a HUGE unknown. On the one hand he has maybe the best stuff on the staff. But he wasn't really all that good last year.

I am excited to watch a little baseball this year and I hope the Reds win some games.

[BearcatShane]

The Reds are going to break through this streak sometime. 2009? Why not.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Originally Posted by BearcatShane

The Reds are going to break through this streak sometime. 2009? Why not.

I hope your right but Vegas says 78.5 wins. There's a lot of nice casinos in Vegas. Those didn't get there from them being wrong.

[Kingspoint]

Originally Posted by JayBruce32

I hope your right but Vegas says 78.5 wins. There's a lot of nice casinos in Vegas. Those didn't get there from them being wrong.

Oh, yes. I've won many over/under season win totals from them. You've just got to do it when you you know more about the team than they do. This is one of those cases. It doesn't come up very often. Last year, I predicted within 2 games (as most did on this board) of the exact win total of the REDS. There weren't the intangibles that there are this year. And, if anything is going to allow a team to over-achieve, it's strong pitching and strong defense. This team has strong pitching and good defense. Last year they had average pitching and poor defense. 6 of the 8 defensive positions will improve this season, and the 2 that won't are at a gold-glove or near gold-glove level already, Centerfield and Second Base.

That number is also going to rise from the 78.5, if it hasn't already. I have to assume that earlier in the year it was even less than the 78.5. Not too many betters are taking the under on that bet.

Ask Bailey, Owings, Thompson, Cueto, Harang and Arroyo if they would individually be dissapointed if they "only" won as many games as projected. I think you would get a "Yes" from each of them.

Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by Kingspoint

Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins

This really is not the best way to project a teams win total, since individual pitchers don't have that much control over the games that they win.

However, I think this does show how valuable starting pitching is. If you have five strong arms in the rotation, and they perform to their ability, it makes a winning season much easier. The offense still matters, just not as much.