Brandon Phillips back batting first

[Guacarock]

Here's the story:

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/...k_cin&c_id=cin

What's your take?

Is Brandon better positioned leading off for us than hitting cleanup?

Can this move put us back on a tear, like in 2010, when the Reds went 43-29 with Phillips leading off?

Is he a temporary fix or our answer to set the tables?

What's going on here, is Brandon priming the pump for his contract extension talks or stepping forward as a leader to solve a real team problem?

Did he need to step forward on his own? Could anyone in charge ask him to do so first?

Interesting development, and anything that's this interesting this late in the Dog Days is worth kicking around.

[dougdirt]

Phillips isn't a lead off hitter. Phillips isn't a clean up hitter. Phillips is a 6th or 7th hitter.

He shouldn't bat leadoff because his OBP isn't that good.
He shouldn't bat clean up because, well, lets be honest, he isn't that good of a hitter.

[The Operator]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Phillips isn't a lead off hitter. Phillips isn't a clean up hitter. Phillips is a 6th or 7th hitter.

Agreed. He is miscast anywhere in the top and/or heart of the order. He certainly brings some things to the table but lead off and middle of the order skills aren't it.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by The Operator

Agreed. He is miscast anywhere in the top and/or heart of the order. He certainly brings some things to the table but lead off and middle of the order skills aren't it.

This statement applies to the entire roster not named Bruce or Votto. Besides those two, Phillips, a part time catcher (Ramon), a part time OF (Heisey), a couple positionless kids getting cups of coffee (Frazier and Alonso), a bench jockey (Cairo), a departed Jonny Gomes and 3 pitchers are the only players above the relatively low standard of league average. There really isn't much that Dusty can do to fix the line-up. I criticize his line-ups as much as everyone, but he simply doesn't have the right players to fit together to create a real cohesive unit.

Once again, this curious move is on Walt.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Phillips isn't a lead off hitter. Phillips isn't a clean up hitter. Phillips is a 6th or 7th hitter.

He shouldn't bat leadoff because his OBP isn't that good.
He shouldn't bat clean up because, well, lets be honest, he isn't that good of a hitter.

Yes.

[osuceltic]

This team has a 3-hole hitter and a bunch of 6/7/8 hitters. And a 9-hole hitter when Janish plays.

They don't have a leadoff hitter. Or a 2-hole hitter. Or a cleanup hitter.

I will say that Brandon Phillips is the least of the problems. He hits wherever the team asks him to hit and offers to help when he thinks he can help. Not his fault the team couldn't fill those other spots in the lineup. Someone has to do it.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Phillips isn't a lead off hitter. Phillips isn't a clean up hitter. Phillips is a 6th or 7th hitter.

He shouldn't bat leadoff because his OBP isn't that good.
He shouldn't bat clean up because, well, lets be honest, he isn't that good of a hitter.

So it sounds like you don't think he's worth the $12mill for next year?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

So it sounds like you don't think he's worth the $12mill for next year?

Tough to say. I would offer him the money to keep him, even though I am not sure he will be worth it. My reasoning is this: If we overpay but still get solid overall production, I can eat a little bit of money there. But if we let him walk and can't land the right guy in free agency to replace him, we don't have anyone in the system to step in right now and take his spot and we are very likely to take a large step backwards there. Give him the money for 2012 and see how things play out on the farm or via trade for a replacement. I would NOT extend him though. Wouldn't even think about it.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Tough to say. I would offer him the money to keep him, even though I am not sure he will be worth it. My reasoning is this: If we overpay but still get solid overall production, I can eat a little bit of money there. But if we let him walk and can't land the right guy in free agency to replace him, we don't have anyone in the system to step in right now and take his spot and we are very likely to take a large step backwards there. Give him the money for 2012 and see how things play out on the farm or via trade for a replacement. I would NOT extend him though. Wouldn't even think about it.

I agree with that reasoning

[jojo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Tough to say. I would offer him the money to keep him, even though I am not sure he will be worth it. My reasoning is this: If we overpay but still get solid overall production, I can eat a little bit of money there. But if we let him walk and can't land the right guy in free agency to replace him, we don't have anyone in the system to step in right now and take his spot and we are very likely to take a large step backwards there. Give him the money for 2012 and see how things play out on the farm or via trade for a replacement. I would NOT extend him though. Wouldn't even think about it.

It's probably a certainty that the Reds pick up Phillips' option. Not because of his bat.... because of his glove.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by jojo

It's probably a certainty that the Reds pick up Phillips' option. Not because of his bat.... because of his glove.

I agree completely, but that is also why I wouldn't extend him. His value comes from his glove and he is going to be on the wrong side of 30 for his entire new contract that someone is going to give him. Pick up the option for 2012 and be searching for a replacement starting yesterday.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Phillips isn't a lead off hitter. Phillips isn't a clean up hitter. Phillips is a 6th or 7th hitter.

He shouldn't bat leadoff because his OBP isn't that good.
He shouldn't bat clean up because, well, lets be honest, he isn't that good of a hitter.

He's nearly ideal for the No. 2-hole. Good contact rate, good speed. Gets on base a sufficient amount.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

He's nearly ideal for the No. 2-hole. Good contact rate, good speed. Gets on base a sufficient amount.

I don't really know. His numbers in the two spot would be ideal if he were able to repeat them there. I just don't know if he would be able to and I am not sure his overall numbers say "ideal #2 hitter".

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't really know. His numbers in the two spot would be ideal if he were able to repeat them there. I just don't know if he would be able to and I am not sure his overall numbers say "ideal #2 hitter".

What about his numbers suggest a lack of being repeatable? I'd say his numbers have been remarkably consistent the last three seasons.

His OBP has been nearly identical, so too has his contact rates; his batting average nearly the same; his slugging has dropped a small bit, but for being a 2-hitter, that's not as important.

If anything, I think Phillips has been extremely consistent. I feel as if we know more about what we'll get out of him than any player on the Reds outside of Paul Janish and Joey Votto on extreme ends of the spectrum.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am not sure his overall numbers say "ideal #2 hitter".

I'm with you on this one. There is a difference between a reasonable compromise for the Reds given the context of their roster (i.e. were there better options or not) and an "ideal" option.

Here's a statistical look at Phillips compared to his peers based upon average production across batting order over his career ranked by wOBA (a great metric for summarizing the overall offensive skill set of a hitter):

Order	         BA	OPB	SLG	OPS	wOBA	BABIP	K%	BB%	ISO
Batting 3rd	0.283	0.362	0.475	0.836	0.364	0.307	15.9	10.4	0.192
Batting 4th	0.278	0.358	0.483	0.841	0.363	0.301	17.2	10.5	0.205
Batting 5th	0.269	0.340	0.449	0.790	0.346	0.299	17.7	9.1	0.181
Batting 6th	0.264	0.331	0.432	0.763	0.336	0.298	18.0	8.3	0.167
Batting 1st	0.275	0.340	0.406	0.746	0.335	0.309	14.5	8.1	0.131
Batting 2nd	0.275	0.336	0.412	0.748	0.334	0.307	14.6	7.7	0.136
Phillips	0.269	0.318	0.428	0.746	0.324	0.289	14.2	5.9	0.159
Batting 7th	0.257	0.320	0.404	0.724	0.321	0.292	17.8	7.8	0.147
Batting 8th	0.249	0.316	0.378	0.694	0.306	0.288	18.0	8.2	0.129
Batting 9th	0.213	0.267	0.307	0.575	0.256	0.272	23.3	6.0	0.094

This comparison suggests that over his career, Phillips best fit the profile of an average #7 hitter given his poor on base skills and low walk rate. Over 600 PAs (roughly his average number per year), he's been .5 WAR below an average major league #2 hitter (i.e. .5 WAR/season below an average #2 hitter).