2012 ZiPS Projections

[*BaseClogger*]

My yearly tradition of posting Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections for the Reds:

The Reds had a reasonable argument at being competitive in the NL Central last season (ZiPS had them tied with Brewers, just ahead of Cardinals), but the starting pitching pretty much abandoned the team, with the exception of Johnny Cueto. The addition of Mat Latos obviously improves the rotation, but the team has a bit less depth now and there are less emergency options in the rotation with Travis Wood in Chicago (ZiPS still believes in him enough to give him a ERA+ of 100 there) and Matt Maloney on the Twins (85 ERA+, still enough to be in the top 5 projected starters for Reds). Yonder Alonso is a loss, but they did address the correct need and though he hit well in his 2011 cup of coffee, Alonso's minor league performances suggest that he's a bit overhyped. Among hitters, the Reds actually have a pretty decent field of second-tier prospects.

While the team could use an extra impact bat (despite finishing 2nd in the league in runs scored, they only had a 98 OPS+), but at this point, they probably need to sign a few low-risk, upside pitcher signings, simply to bolster the organizational lack at the upper levels. The very few minor league free agents they've signed (Sean Gallagher, Luis Atilano, Clayton Tanner) really shouldn't pitch in the majors - Gallagher had promise, but he hasn't pitched well at all in a long time. If the Reds aren't going to spend a lot of money and go after Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt, they really need to be in on guys like Paul Maholm or Jeff Francis.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...incinnati_reds

[TRF]

Yonder Alonso is a loss, but they did address the correct need and though he hit well in his 2011 cup of coffee, Alonso's minor league performances suggest that he's a bit overhyped. Among hitters, the Reds actually have a pretty decent field of second-tier prospects.

I love it when people look at numbers without context. He was injured, had his hamate bone removed and probably has just now got his power back. I love the trade, but IMO, the Padres got a lot more interesting.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

I love it when people look at numbers without context. He was injured, had his hamate bone removed and probably has just now got his power back. I love the trade, but IMO, the Padres got a lot more interesting.

Well, that is the thing with projections like this.... they are entirely numbers based. It is why they are pretty darn good at projecting what established players will do (tons of data to work with) and not so good at projecting what younger players will do (hardly enough data to work with).

[RedEye]

Looks like a rotation with two above league-average starters (Latos, Cueto) and two league-average ones (Bailey, Leake). If Arroyo can right the ship, he should add a third to the second category. Not too shabby, eh?

[TRF]

Originally Posted by RedEye

Looks like a rotation with two above league-average starters (Latos, Cueto) and two league-average ones (Bailey, Leake). If Arroyo can right the ship, he should add a third to the second category. Not too shabby, eh?

The rotation does have health issues. I'm betting someone else will get 10-15 starts. Maybe Chapman after say, My 31st. 2 months will give us the health of one Homer Bailey. And if Arroyo is still feeling the effects of mono, they better DL him this time.

[Scrap Irony]

For the second year in a row, I think Jay Bruce's numbers are extremely conservative.

However, if everyone else does what they project, the Reds' offense will be just fine. Cozart and Mesoraco, in particular, look to be outstanding news. Stubbs, notsomuch.

The pen looks like a team strength (which is odd, as I believe it to be the weakest part of the team). All in all, the Reds look to be league average or better across the board, with upside at key spots that may push them anywhere from second place to the World Series title.