Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

[Vottomatic]

Latos, Cueto, Leake, Arroyo, Chapman, Francis, Bailey

Francis is a fringe starting pitcher who lacks velocity on his fastball.

Chapman has had a good ST, but probably needs to work on stuff at Louisville, namely his third pitch.

Bailey continues to be erratic.

Also, with all the off days in April, does a 5th starter really matter much at this point?

[dougdirt]

Start him in the #4 spot and be done with it.

Bailey showed last year that everything is in place for him to be arguably the second best starter on the Reds 2012 roster behind Mat Latos.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Start him in the #4 spot and be done with it.

Bailey showed last year that everything is in place for him to be arguably the second best starter on the Reds 2012 roster behind Mat Latos.

+1. Hope his arm problems are behind him and the Reds will have a solid major league starting pitcher.

[RANDY IN INDY]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Start him in the #4 spot and be done with it.

Bailey showed last year that everything is in place for him to be arguably the second best starter on the Reds 2012 roster behind Mat Latos.

[kheidg-]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Start him in the #4 spot and be done with it.

Bailey showed last year that everything is in place for him to be arguably the second best starter on the Reds 2012 roster behind Mat Latos.

Over Johnny Cueto? That's a stretch.

I'd even say its a stretch to say he could be placed above Leake or Arroyo.

[nate]

Originally Posted by kheidg-

Over Johnny Cueto? That's a stretch.

I'd even say its a stretch to say he could be placed above Leake or Arroyo.

I wouldn't. Outside of IP, I'd say over the past three years, Bailey is pretty much what a pitcher of league average skill looks like. Leake probably squeaks in there as well.

I'd say that's likely to continue.

Arroyo has been more "league below average."

I'd say that's likely to continue as well.

I think Cueto is a better pitcher than Bailey but he (Cueto) has league average to a bit better than league average skill.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by kheidg-

Over Johnny Cueto? That's a stretch.

I'd even say its a stretch to say he could be placed above Leake or Arroyo.

I don't. Most projection systems have Bailey, Leake and Cueto all pretty close to each other in ERA and one system (the one that was the best for the 2011 season) has Bailey behind only Latos in ERA for Reds starters (though Chapman also is ahead of Bailey but it comes as a reliever).

Bailey walks fewer batters and strikes out more than Cueto and Leake (he and Bailey are actually walking the same number of guys). That is a really good start towards being better.

[The Voice of IH]

I really would like to dump Arroyo, but it ain't happening. Bailey is in the rotation, while Chapman is in the minors.

[Always Red]

Originally Posted by The Voice of IH

I really would like to dump Arroyo, but it ain't happening. Bailey is in the rotation, while Chapman is in the minors.

I think Arroyo is going to be a problem all season. He's the 6th best starter on the team. His salary pencils him in as a sure fire SP.

There will be injuries, and the Reds should and probably will do what the options will dictate, and keep everyone and postpone the decision making until real performance decides.

I also agree that the bullpen is a problem.

[hebroncougar]

At some point, someone's going to go down. You send the one you want to send to Louisville and be done with it. I don't like Arroyo at the price they have to pay, but someone's got to throw some serious innings. I hope he can get back to league average.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by hebroncougar

At some point, someone's going to go down. You send the one you want to send to Louisville and be done with it. I don't like Arroyo at the price they have to pay, but someone's got to throw some innings. I hope he can get back to league average.

Only Leake has options, besides Chapman.

So "someone" is limited.

[Kc61]

I assume you guys all watch six innings and then shut off the TV.

Because the late innings will be very frustrating for Reds fans under your view.

You don't want Bailey in the bullpen. You don't want Chapman in the bullpen. You don't want any starter in the bullpen, except Francis who strikes out a guy every two innings, maybe.

The Reds have a problem. They have too many starters and too few relievers. Yet you want Bailey in the rotation, Chapman in the minors.

I guess it's Ron Mahay time. Or Andrew Brackman. Or Jeff Francis, a starter who doesn't fan anybody.

And there are two relief vacancies. So it won't only be one AAA reliever. It will be two.

Will be very interesting to see Chapman strike out 13 in a AAA game while the Reds give up five runs in the seventh inning with some AAA pitcher going. Louisville lost tonight in the final four; looks like they will have some excitement during the baseball season in the view of some posters.

Whatever. Maybe Reds will trade Arroyo.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I assume you guys all watch six innings and then shut off the TV.

Because the late innings will be very frustrating for Reds fans under your view.

You don't want Bailey in the bullpen. You don't want Chapman in the bullpen. You don't want any starter in the bullpen, except Francis who strikes out a guy every two innings, maybe.

The Reds have a problem. They have too many starters and too few relievers. Yet you want Bailey in the rotation, Chapman in the minors.

I guess it's Ron Mahay time. Or Andrew Brackman. Or Jeff Francis, a starter who doesn't fan anybody.

And there are two relief vacancies. So it won't only be one AAA reliever. It will be two.

Will be very interesting to see Chapman strike out 13 in a AAA game while the Reds give up five runs in the seventh inning with some AAA pitcher going. Louisville lost tonight in the final four; looks like they will have some excitement during the baseball season in the view of some posters.

Whatever. Maybe Reds will trade Arroyo.

We still have a decent bullpen. If Masset's out significant time, may be you reassess things later, but I don't think pushing the panic button is necessary yet.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Superdude

We still have a decent bullpen. If Masset's out significant time, may be you reassess things later, but I don't think pushing the panic button is necessary yet.

Reds bullpen is five guys. Five.

One of them, Bray, has had an injured spring. Lecure isn't an every day reliever, more of a multi-inning guy. Has been injured every season.

Current bullpen will result in a massive burden on Ondrusek and Arredondo.
These guys will need a hospital by some time in May.

Filling obvious holes with existing talent isn't pushing a panic button. It's dealing with reality, rather than ignoring it.

[757690]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I assume you guys all watch six innings and then shut off the TV.

Because the late innings will be very frustrating for Reds fans under your view.

You don't want Bailey in the bullpen. You don't want Chapman in the bullpen. You don't want any starter in the bullpen, except Francis who strikes out a guy every two innings, maybe.

The Reds have a problem. They have too many starters and too few relievers. Yet you want Bailey in the rotation, Chapman in the minors.

I guess it's Ron Mahay time. Or Andrew Brackman. Or Jeff Francis, a starter who doesn't fan anybody.

And there are two relief vacancies. So it won't only be one AAA reliever. It will be two.

Will be very interesting to see Chapman strike out 13 in a AAA game while the Reds give up five runs in the seventh inning with some AAA pitcher going. Louisville lost tonight in the final four; looks like they will have some excitement during the baseball season in the view of some posters.

Whatever. Maybe Reds will trade Arroyo.

Last season, the 7th man in the pen, Matt Maloney, pitched in relief 4 times in April, all in blowouts. I agree the Reds need one more reliever, but it's not like whoever that is, will be pitching that many important innings. in fact, I would love to see a 6 man pen all year and use that spot for an extra bat off the bench.