So...is anyone else worried about the Reds?

[durl]

The division is clinched, everybody seems healthy, and the playoffs are almost upon us. Everybody in Redsville is happy...myself included. That being said, is anyone else concerned about the momentum that the Reds are taking into the post-season?

In September, the Reds have scored 70 Runs (with 4 games remaining) which is the 3rd WORST in MLB. In August, they ranked 8th with 142 Runs. That's a SERIOUS drop in production. In July, the Reds ranked 11th with 116.

OPS is also horrible in September: .636 which is 3rd worst in MLB. In August, they were at .777 (6th in MLB) and in July they were .760 (ranked 10th).

Pitching looks pretty solid, with a 3.24 ERA in September, a 3.78 in August, and a 3.03 in July (4th in MLB that month).

I realize that the Reds are using some new guys here and there and that could account for some of the drop-off. Still, I don't like seeing the offensive nose-dive we've seen right when they need to be playing their best. Call me paranoid (thank you) but it seems as though the firepower that pushed this team to the division title has begun to flame out.

[dougdirt]

Wilson Valdez is to blame.

[George Anderson]

Originally Posted by durl

The division is clinched, everybody seems healthy, and the playoffs are almost upon us. Everybody in Redsville is happy...myself included. That being said, is anyone else concerned about the momentum that the Reds are taking into the post-season?

In September, the Reds have scored 70 Runs (with 4 games remaining) which is the 3rd WORST in MLB. In August, they ranked 8th with 142 Runs. That's a SERIOUS drop in production. In July, the Reds ranked 11th with 116.

OPS is also horrible in September: .636 which is 3rd worst in MLB. In August, they were at .777 (6th in MLB) and in July they were .760 (ranked 10th).

Pitching looks pretty solid, with a 3.24 ERA in September, a 3.78 in August, and a 3.03 in July (4th in MLB that month).

I realize that the Reds are using some new guys here and there and that could account for some of the drop-off. Still, I don't like seeing the offensive nose-dive we've seen right when they need to be playing their best. Call me paranoid (thank you) but it seems as though the firepower that pushed this team to the division title has begun to flame out.

I wish they were playing better but keep in mind in 1990 they were 15-16 from 9/1 on.

[vic715]

The regular lineup hasn't been on the field together most of September as Cozart and Ludwick have been out a lot.No worries here.

[RedsMan3203]

Still winning at a .540 clip....

There has been some slumps, some injury's and just simple time off.... I'm sure all of that accounts for the drop in production.

[westofyou]

It's baseball, everything about being a fan is teetering on the edge of despair and glee.

I've only never worried about one team, the 1976 Reds.

Everything else is clenched teeth and migraines.

Best game in the world

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by westofyou

It's baseball, everything about being a fan is teetering on the edge of despair and glee.

I've only never worried about one team, the 1976 Reds.

Everything else is clenched teeth and migraines.

Best game in the world

Well do us a favor, stop worrying about this team like you did that team and we can get the same results.

[powersackers]

2 out of 5 games this season the Reds score 3 runs or less in a game.

So in the NLDS there's a better than 2/5 chance we're only scoring a max of three runs (better because pitching will be better than average)

In the NLCS and WS that'd be a 3/7 chance.

Must continue to have tippy top shape SP and RP to have a chance with those numbers working against you. This team flat out can't score. This formula worked to the tune of 93+ wins. But in a short series just be prepared... or worried if you so choose.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by powersackers

2 out of 5 games this team scores 3 runs or less in a game.

So in the NLDS there's a better than 2/5 chance we're only scoring a max of three runs (better because pitching will be better than average)

In the NLCS and WS that'd be a 3/7 chance.

Must continue to have tippy top shape SP and RP to have a chance with those numbers working against you. This team flat out can't score. This formula worked to the tune of 93+ wins. But in a short series just be prepared... or worried if you so choose.

Winning games is a function of run scoring and run prevention. Don't cherry pick the negatives.

[powersackers]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Winning games is a function of run scoring and run prevention. Don't cherry pick the negatives.

The negatives are reasons to worry. The positives are reasons to have faith. This thread isn't called "So... is anyone else not worried about the Reds?"

[RedsBaron]

Originally Posted by westofyou

I've only never worried about one team, the 1976 Reds.

Yep. The 1976 Reds not only went undefeated in the post season; I expected them to win every important game, they expected to win every important game, and they won every important game.
I am worried about the lack of production of the Reds offense in recent weeks, but the post season is usually a crap shoot anyway. I am actually less concerned about Washington than I am about the other NL playoff opponents.

[traderumor]

I would call it nervousness that they might lose the one run game instead of win the one run game. All the teams are evenly matched, any one of the four will be good enough to make a WS run, just a matter of whose pitching holds out the longest.

[VR]

Originally Posted by traderumor

I would call it nervousness that they might lose the one run game instead of win the one run game. All the teams are evenly matched, any one of the four will be good enough to make a WS run, just a matter of whose pitching holds out the longest.

This is the perspective I have as well. It's going to be about who gets hot, and who gets the breaks. No team is overly dominant or overly inferior in any area....although I do favor the Reds combination of pitching AND defense.

Let's get this party started already.

[AtomicDumpling]

Yes I am worried about the Reds, mainly because anything can happen in a 5 game series.

[Vottomatic]

It's not the wins/losses or hitting stats that bother me. It's the eyetest. I don't see many quality at-bats right now. Overanxious hitters swinging at alot of bad pitches. I'd feel better if I felt the slump was just some bad luck on hit balls.

7 more games. Hopefully the team starts to heat up here soon.