Phillips' Boner (Fred Merkle)

[RedFanAlways1966]

The NLDS is not over yet as I write this and I might not write it if not down by 3 runs as I type. But I have been bothered by this since it happened. For those of you too young or not into basebball history, Google up Merkle's Boner. For those of you who are immature, have fun with the thread title. Fred Merkle made a baserunning mistake that cost his team an opportunity to go to the World Series. It was/is called Merkle's Boner.

I have not always been a huge believer in "all else would have stayed the same if this would have happened differently". Different pitches might have been thrown to hitters, etc. But ever since that 1st inning of game #3, I have had a hard time getting BP's baserunning blunder out of my mind. CARDINAL RULE (one of many)... never make the first out or last out at 3rd base. CARDINAL RULE broken. And in the fashion it was broken (2 bases on a WP/PB). Bothersome.

How many guys go from 1st to 3rd in a game on a pitch that was not hit? Most guys would not even try it b/c MLB catchers are pretty good. Well we got to witness it firsthand and we were shown how dumb that move can be. Of course (to be fair) if he makes it, he is great. But he did not make it and got thrown out by 5 feet. I read a few comments from respected members that said they like the aggressive nature. I guess there is a fine line between aggressive and dumb when it comes to running the bases. What BP did can be called aggressive, but it was dumb. I'd venture to guess that most of the REDS staff will tell you the same if you knew them well. If you are messin' with the CARDINAL RULE thing, than you had better hope it works out. If not, then threads like this get written

I have no doubt I am asking for it and people will get angry at me (gee, some will probably label me as racist). But I have no problem calling out dumb plays that violate a CARDINAL RULE in baseball. A dumb play that, if not done, can honestly be called a play that probably cost a team a chance to advance to the NLCS. He is one of or the best 2nd baseman in MLB in my opinion. But Phillips' Boner is etched in my brain and I feel it is fair to call it out for what it was (not aggressive, but dumb). And the ramifications (as it turned out) are going hoem instead of playing a 7-game series for the NL Title. Sure the REDS could have hit/pitched better after that CARDINAL RULE was broken, but ask yourself if the REDS would have won that game if not for this dumb play. It is sports, Stuff happens (mental mistakes), but lets talk about that play.

[Tom Servo]

It's a stupid, meaningless rule. Not scoring a single run, or even getting a runner to third, in 9 innings while Homer Bailey and the bullpen was lights freaking out was the boner that ensured the Reds would not be advancing to the NLCS.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Tom Servo

Not scoring a single run, or even getting a runner to third, in 9 innings while Homer Bailey and the bullpen was lights freaking out was the boner that ensured the Reds would not be advancing to the NLCS.

Why is it OK for the Reds pitchers to shut down the Giants, but not OK for the Giant's pitchers to shut down the Reds?

[Tom Servo]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Why is it OK for the Reds pitchers to shut down the Giants, but not OK for the Giant's pitchers to shut down the Reds?

The Reds pitchers (Bailey, Marshall, Chapman) were excellent in Game 3, Vogelsong and the Giants were middling. Affeldt is the only one who pitched very well in it.

[757690]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Why is it OK for the Reds pitchers to shut down the Giants, but not OK for the Giant's pitchers to shut down the Reds?

I think most people forgot that most on this board were scared about playing the Giants. They won 94 games and had a very strong pitching staff. It was a tough battle between two excellent teams that could have gone either way many times.

[Sea Ray]

I refuse to play the what if game on BP's blunder. It was a dumb move on his part but I'm ticked that we only got one more hit the rest of the game too. That's what's so frustrating and we've seen such offensive slumps many times from this ballclub.

And it was nowhere near the Lonnie Smith blunder in the Atl-Minny World Series

[Vottomatic]

Lots of mistakes, baserunning.....defense, and lack of hitting cost us this series. Not happy with Dusty leaving Latos in to pitch to Posey with bases loaded either.

Plenty of blame to go around.

Plenty of bad luck to go around with what happened to Votto and Cueto too. What might have been had they been healthy.

If they make it back to the playoffs next year, they will be plenty hungry.

[Brutus]

What Phillips did was the epitome of smart baserunning.

You have second base stolen and the ball gets to the backstop. To get thrown out, the catcher has to field it cleanly and then deliver a good throw to third. If Posey doesn't do both of those things, Phillips gets to third easy. There is absolutely no reason Phillips shouldn't have done it. Just tip your cap to Posey for making the play.

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by Brutus

What Phillips did was the epitome of smart baserunning.

You have second base stolen and the ball gets to the backstop. To get thrown out, the catcher has to field it cleanly and then deliver a good throw to third. If Posey doesn't do both of those things, Phillips gets to third easy. There is absolutely no reason Phillips shouldn't have done it. Just tip your cap to Posey for making the play.

With zero outs, no, it was not the epitome of smart baserunning. It is the epitome of dumb, dumb baserunning. It's not why the Reds lost the series, but in no way is that smart baserunning.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

With zero outs, no, it was not the epitome of smart baserunning. It is the epitome of dumb, dumb baserunning. It's not why the Reds lost the series, but in no way is that smart baserunning.

Any attempt of advancement that takes a perfect sequence to throw you out is smart baserunning. And for a second time, it took a clean play and a good throw to get him out. That absolutely is good baserunning.

The advantage of getting to third base with no outs is huge. There's almost a .3 run expectancy difference and over 20% increase of scoring a run.

I'd say the chance of a catcher making a clean play and good throw is less than the 20% bump in scoring Phillips took by attempting to go to third.

[RedFanAlways1966]

Originally Posted by Brutus

What Phillips did was the epitome of smart baserunning.

You have second base stolen and the ball gets to the backstop. To get thrown out, the catcher has to field it cleanly and then deliver a good throw to third. If Posey doesn't do both of those things, Phillips gets to third easy. There is absolutely no reason Phillips shouldn't have done it. Just tip your cap to Posey for making the play.

Brutus, you act like it was a bang-bang play. It was not. Out by so much he had time to try an alter his slide to avoid the tag that was waiting for him. There is a reason... the same reason we have things called CARDINAL RULES. This is one of those.

Do you not believe in CARDINAL RULES? We are not talking running across the pitcher's mound after making an out, but CARDINAL RULES that apply to action on the field.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966

Brutus, you act like it was a bang-bang play. It was not. Out by so much he had time to try an alter his slide to avoid the tag that was waiting for him. There is a reason... the same reason we have things called CARDINAL RULES. This is one of those.

Do you not believe in CARDINAL RULES? We are not talking running across the pitcher's mound after making an out, but CARDINAL RULES that apply to action on the field.

I don't believe in cardinal rules. I believe in percentages and odds. And Phillips had a better chance of increasing his team's chance of scoring a run by trying to make that play, probably, then he did of getting thrown out at third.

Cardinal rules are too often outdated ways of thinking that were anecdotal.

[Danny Serafini]

Originally Posted by Brutus

And Phillips had a better chance of increasing his team's chance of scoring a run by trying to make that play, probably, then he did of getting thrown out at third.

That's how I look at it. He had a relatively good chance of picking up that base, so it's worth the risk. It just didn't work out. That happens. Even when something is a 95% chance of working it still means you'll have the occasional failure, that doesn't mean you should never take that chance in order to avoid that 5%.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Brutus

What Phillips did was the epitome of smart baserunning.

You have second base stolen and the ball gets to the backstop. To get thrown out, the catcher has to field it cleanly and then deliver a good throw to third. If Posey doesn't do both of those things, Phillips gets to third easy. There is absolutely no reason Phillips shouldn't have done it. Just tip your cap to Posey for making the play.

What are the chances Posey makes the play? Because that's what you have to weigh against the marginal gain of being on 3rd instead of 2nd.

Making the 1st out at 3rd is like punting on 4th & 1 from your opponents 40.

Obviously there's a ton of blame to go around in those 3 games and you'd rather have errors of aggression than ones of carelessness. But that one hurt.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

What are the chances Posey makes the play? Because that's what you have to weigh against the marginal gain of being on 3rd instead of 2nd.

Making the 1st out at 3rd is like punting on 4th & 1 from your opponents 40.

Obviously there's a ton of blame to go around in those 3 games and you'd rather have errors of aggression than ones of carelessness. But that one hurt.

Phillips took a reckless risk. Posey threw him out and it wasn't even a close play. It wasn't good baserunning. It was hyper aggressive baserunning.The results were fairly disastrous.