What would it take to get Justin Upton?

[SidneySlicker]

I think the Dbacks are going to start by talking Homer, Gregorious, and Soto with a throw in or two. I leave out Hamilton, because I think the Reds have made him untouchable. Would you do it?

[jhu1321]

Depends on there intentions with Chapman. If there is belief that he can be a TOR starter I think it makes Homer available to trade. If not, I think they start talking about Cingrani and Corcino. As much as I'm drooling about Homer's late season dominance, and the possibility of seeing more of that next year, it is the perfect sell high situation.

If they ask for Homer, Gregorious & Soto I'd do it in a heartbeat. I'd probably even be willing to include one of Cingrani/Corcino..........

[SidneySlicker]

Originally Posted by jhu1321

Depends on there intentions with Chapman. If there is belief that he can be a TOR starter I think it makes Homer available to trade. If not, I think they start talking about Cingrani and Corcino. As much as I'm drooling about Homer's late season dominance, and the possibility of seeing more of that next year, it is the perfect sell high situation.

If they ask for Homer, Gregorious & Soto I'd do it in a heartbeat. I'd probably even be willing to include one of Cingrani/Corcino..........

Agree on the Homer trade high theory. Unlike many I like Chapman in the Closer role. I think maybe people are overvaluing Chapman's ability to contribute this season as a starter. I wonder how much he would be able to contribute this season in the rotation, because it will take time to develop the arm strength and the 2nd and 3 pitches he'll need to start in the majors. imo. I could be wrong though.

I'd look at converting JJ Hoover over to fill in if Bailey were to be traded.

[lidspinner]

Originally Posted by jhu1321

Depends on there intentions with Chapman. If there is belief that he can be a TOR starter I think it makes Homer available to trade. If not, I think they start talking about Cingrani and Corcino. As much as I'm drooling about Homer's late season dominance, and the possibility of seeing more of that next year, it is the perfect sell high situation.

If they ask for Homer, Gregorious & Soto I'd do it in a heartbeat. I'd probably even be willing to include one of Cingrani/Corcino..........

in no way shape or form do I include one of the double C's.....those 2 have a very bright future and that future is going to start very soon for the Reds....I think you will see big things from both of those guys...be it starting or out of the pen, we are in great shape with those 2 and cheap doesnt hurt at all.....

[jhu1321]

Originally Posted by lidspinner

in no way shape or form do I include one of the double C's.....those 2 have a very bright future and that future is going to start very soon for the Reds....I think you will see big things from both of those guys...be it starting or out of the pen, we are in great shape with those 2 and cheap doesnt hurt at all.....

I agree they have bright future(s) but it's clear we need another bat (preferably one that could protect Votto). Losing ONE of them would not be bad if it helped return another bat....... especially with the core of our rotation locked up through 2015.

[SidneySlicker]

Originally Posted by jhu1321

I agree they have bright future(s) but it's clear we need another bat (preferably one that could protect Votto). Losing ONE of them would not be bad if it helped return another bat....... especially with the core of our rotation locked up through 2015.

This is where I'm at right now. They need to upgrade this offense, and or nothing is going to change. They need a big bat.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by SidneySlicker

This is where I'm at right now. They need to upgrade this offense, and or nothing is going to change. They need a big bat.

Brace yourself. The way it's looking, you're gonna have Gomes or Ludwick back in the cleanup spot or maybe Jason Bay and management crossing their fingers. Cheap, cheap, and did I say cheap will be the answer at cleanup.

[REDREAD]

If it costs Homer, I think I'll pass.

We can dig up an acceptable OF (although probably not as good as Upton) without blowing a hole in the rotation.

Even if Chapman moves into the rotation, I think we're going to need Homer and Leake to make it through the season..

If I'm Walt, none of the current starters get traded (unless another SP comes from somewhere else).

[SidneySlicker]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

If it costs Homer, I think I'll pass.

We can dig up an acceptable OF (although probably not as good as Upton) without blowing a hole in the rotation.

Even if Chapman moves into the rotation, I think we're going to need Homer and Leake to make it through the season..

If I'm Walt, none of the current starters get traded (unless another SP comes from somewhere else).

Yeah I just don't see them doing it without at least 1 young player who's had success at the major league level, and the Reds minor league system simply isn't good enough to blow any team away for a Upton like player.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by SidneySlicker

Yeah I just don't see them doing it without at least 1 young player who's had success at the major league level, and the Reds minor league system simply isn't good enough to blow any team away for a Upton like player.

Yea, I agree from the Dbax point of view.
You're proposal was reasonable, I just wouldn't do it from the Reds' point of view.
Might be a difficult match .. In fact any trade this winter might be difficult. The Reds really only have two guys (Hamilton and Cingrani) on the cusp of ML ready. Maybe I am forgetting someone, but not a big surplus there.

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Yea, I agree from the Dbax point of view.
You're proposal was reasonable, I just wouldn't do it from the Reds' point of view.
Might be a difficult match .. In fact any trade this winter might be difficult. The Reds really only have two guys (Hamilton and Cingrani) on the cusp of ML ready. Maybe I am forgetting someone, but not a big surplus there.

Gregorious has been highly touted this offseason as well. I don't have the exact source (d'oh!) but I read on twitter the other day that pundits believe that if his bat progresses as anticipated, he could be a 60 player going forward, and be a high quality player for quite some time. Henry Rodriguez' bat has also been widely praised as being as close to a sure thing as any player in the Reds' system. Corcino is also highly regarded, and Stephenson has humongous upside.

While the Reds' system isn't quite overflowing in the same way that it was before the Latos trade, there is still quite a bit of quality there.

[SidneySlicker]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Gregorious has been highly touted this offseason as well. I don't have the exact source (d'oh!) but I read on twitter the other day that pundits believe that if his bat progresses as anticipated, he could be a 60 player going forward, and be a high quality player for quite some time. Henry Rodriguez' bat has also been widely praised as being as close to a sure thing as any player in the Reds' system. Corcino is also highly regarded, and Stephenson has humongous upside.

While the Reds' system isn't quite overflowing in the same way that it was before the Latos trade, there is still quite a bit of quality there.

I agree to an extent. It's all about knowing your minor leaguers better than anyone else and being able to sell other gm's on them.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Gregorious has been highly touted this offseason as well. I don't have the exact source (d'oh!) but I read on twitter the other day that pundits believe that if his bat progresses as anticipated, he could be a 60 player going forward, and be a high quality player for quite some time. Henry Rodriguez' bat has also been widely praised as being as close to a sure thing as any player in the Reds' system. Corcino is also highly regarded, and Stephenson has humongous upside.

While the Reds' system isn't quite overflowing in the same way that it was before the Latos trade, there is still quite a bit of quality there.

Point taken.. Gregorious is probably a coveted prospect by other teams.
The other guys would probably draw interest as well.

[Plus Plus]

I think it depends on which Justin Upton you are trading for, and if his season this year (a relatively average one) is going to be representative of his performance going forward or if he will be able to play as he did in 2011 going forward.

For 2011-level Justin Upton, that's probably a reasonable package. Maybe I would try and substitute Cozart in for Gregorious, but I think it would have to include a "sure thing" pitcher like Bailey (I don't think that Corcino or Cingrani would get it done, although they might- especially Cingrani after his season and his limited stay in MLB).

For 2012-level Justin Upton, I think that's an overpay. Maybe Leake, HRod, and Duran or something might be more at the level that I would give up for this player.

It really would take some deep analysis on the Reds' part because of Upton's age, his inconsistency in his young career so far, and the inconsistency of his brother BJ's performance in Tampa Bay, especially when considered relative to his projections that many had for BJ in 2008 at the beginning of his career.

Justin Upton can be a real game-changer if he plays to his potential, but trading real-life players and prospects for a .785 OPS corner outfield bat is a pretty bad proposition for any team.

[Dan]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Justin Upton can be a real game-changer if he plays to his potential, but trading real-life players and prospects for a .785 OPS corner outfield bat is a pretty bad proposition for any team.

That's the real kicker here. He'd definitely fit in LF or maybe CF in a pinch. But really what price do the Reds pay in terms of players going forward?