If the Reds do convert Chapman...

[Brutus]

And it's starting to look like they'll finally pull the trigger for good, how do you suppose they handle the rest of the staff?

Will they trade Bailey? Trade Leake? Option Leake? Put Leake or Bailey in the pen until Chapman reaches an innings limit? Start Leake or Bailey early in the year until they can stretch Chapman's innings to the end of the year?

Personally, I'd be willing to trade Bailey only if it net them a quality starting LF or CF (that could be converted to LF next year). I think Leake's value is unappreciated here, though I'd trade him under the same circumstances (while noting he doesn't have as much trade value as Bailey). But it would be nice to have both since they could have the other replace Arroyo when his contract comes off the books.

I tend to think the Reds will not trade either, but I wonder how they approach Chapman's innings for this year and what they do with the other pitcher in the meantime. Leake, because he has an option they could use if done at the beginning of the year, has more flexibility.

[Will M]

1) keep Bailey

2) I'm ok with moving Leake IF the team backfills his roster spot with a swingman/6th starter. The team needs more depth in case of injuries. 2012's healthy rotation is the exception not the norm

3) I'd probably start Chapman in the rotation then move him to the pen when he gets to a certain innings limit. Maybe mid August

4) I'd get two good (they don't have to be great) bullpen arms to replace Chapman & Broxton.

[_Sir_Charles_]

If they pulled the trigger and put Aroldis in the rotation, I'd guess that Leake would get optioned (as they still need depth), and that they'd attempt to sign a closer (Madson or Broxton most likely). If they failed to sign one, then they'd go with an in-house closer (LeCure, Hoover & Marshall are the most likely candidates IMO...I'd lead towards Marshall)

And yes, I'm in favor of doing this too.

[Superdude]

Best case scenario is Chapman going easy for a month or so and having enough left in the tank come playoff time. I'll get flamed for this, but can Chapman still be optioned to Louisville to start the season? Not only can they easily limit his innings, but also get a better idea of what exactly he's bringing to the table as a starter before we throw him into the fire.

[AmarilloRed]

I seem to recall in the Marshall thread-bad memory? that Marshall would be moved into the closer slot after 2012. In that case, we'd need a set-up man, not a closer.

[cinreds21]

What I would do, personally, is trade Bailey or Leake to Cleveland for Chris Perez and maybe another lefty (Nick Hagadone?) Both have fallen out of favor in Cleveland and could be useful.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

What I would do, personally, is trade Bailey or Leake to Cleveland for Chris Perez and maybe another lefty (Nick Hagadone?) Both have fallen out of favor in Cleveland and could be useful.

Trade Bailey for Chris Perez? NFW!!!

I am never a big fan of trading a lot for closers. I think they can be found economically in FA and in converting other pitchers in the organization.

I agree on Marshall- didn't we sign him to that extension thinking he is the closer of the future?

[cinreds21]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Trade Bailey for Chris Perez? NFW!!!

I am never a big fan of trading a lot for closers. I think they can be found economically in FA and in converting other pitchers in the organization.

I agree on Marshall- didn't we sign him to that extension thinking he is the closer of the future?

And he did poorly. I don't think Bailey is too much to give up. Yes, he had a good year in 2012, but before that he was barely a fourth or fifth starter. I am just not fully sold on his turnaround. Perez is a very under-the-radar closer who doesn't get much publicity (minus him throwing the front office under the bus.) But he's not some horrible closer. A 59/16 K/BB ratio is pretty good. And if you take away his bad August (where his ERA was over 6) he had a really good year.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

And he did poorly. I don't think Bailey is too much to give up. Yes, he had a good year in 2012, but before that he was barely a fourth or fifth starter. I am just not fully sold on his turnaround. Perez is a very under-the-radar closer who doesn't get much publicity (minus him throwing the front office under the bus.) But he's not some horrible closer. A 59/16 K/BB ratio is pretty good. And if you take away his bad August (where his ERA was over 6) he had a really good year.

I think Perez could be had for much less than Bailey. And if not, I'd pass on Perez.

I wouldn't trade Bailey for any closer in the game, including Krimbel. I don't think it's worth it from a value standpoint.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

And he did poorly. I don't think Bailey is too much to give up. Yes, he had a good year in 2012, but before that he was barely a fourth or fifth starter. I am just not fully sold on his turnaround. Perez is a very under-the-radar closer who doesn't get much publicity (minus him throwing the front office under the bus.) But he's not some horrible closer. A 59/16 K/BB ratio is pretty good. And if you take away his bad August (where his ERA was over 6) he had a really good year.

No. He didn't do poorly. That is a common misconception IMO. He had some crummy luck that's for sure. But the guy was missing a bunch of bats, his babip was incredibly high during that period IIRC too. He wasn't given a long enough chance to show what he could do (may 19th the switch was made).

16 games as closer. 7 saves, 1 blown save. 13-3 record during those 16 games. 21 k's, 3 bb's. 25 ground balls, 18 fly balls.

I can't find the babip stat for that period, but I'd take those numbers from a closer any day of the week in our ballpark.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

No. He didn't do poorly. That is a common misconception IMO. He had some crummy luck that's for sure. But the guy was missing a bunch of bats, his babip was incredibly high during that period IIRC too. He wasn't given a long enough chance to show what he could do (may 19th the switch was made).

16 games as closer. 7 saves, 1 blown save. 13-3 record during those 16 games. 21 k's, 3 bb's. 25 ground balls, 18 fly balls.

I can't find the babip stat for that period, but I'd take those numbers from a closer any day of the week in our ballpark.

This is where BABIP can be a flawed stat IMO. A ball put in play against a soft-tossing lefty would seem to have a better chance of "finding a hole" than a ball put in play against a flamethrower. The problem with BABIP is that it pretends that the odds are the same once the ball is put into play no matter which pitcher you are facing. I would love to see the numbers over a long period of time, but I would not be surprised at all to learn that Sean Marshall's BABIP is consistently higher than that of Aroldis Chapman's. Once it becomes "consistent" it's no longer "bad luck."

[RedsManRick]

I would not be at all surprised to see Jocketty in the market for Justin Upton. Rumor is that the D'backs want good, young starting pitching as the centerpiece. Bailey, Stubbs/Heisey, and prospect(s) for Upton would make a lot of sense, especially given how close Billy Hamilton seems to be as the CF. That said, I think Upton ends up in Texas. A more likely scenario is Denard Span.

[DGullett35]

I wouldnt trade anyone from the rotation. its highly unlikely that even all 6 of these guys stays healthy like in 2012. Leake will prove to be valuable in some capacity. I would almost consider betting my life that someone will have to fight the injury bug and Im not trying to be a negative nancy but im just being realistic.

[MikeThierry]

I hope upon hope that Cincy moves Chapman to the rotation. It would be taking a clear strength and putting into an unknown.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

I hope upon hope that Cincy moves Chapman to the rotation. It would be taking a clear strength and putting into an unknown.

I'm glad you feel that way because it doesn't make any sense.

Do you know what Aroldis Chapman (1.51 ERA), Jason Motte (2.75), J.J. Putz (2.80), Tyler Clippard (3.72) and Frank Francisco (5.53) had in common? Despite their ERAs being all over the map, those five all saved between 85-88% of their save opportunities.

What does that tell us? That you don't need a super-dominant closer to get the job done. There is a point of diminishing returns where all the extra runs saved don't win you extra ballgames. If you have a 3-run lead in the bottom of the 9th, you still win the game whether you shut out the opponent or give up two runs.

So Chapman in the rotation would have a much greater impact.

Frankly you say this now, but when Chapman has a sub-3 ERA as a starter and the Reds still have a guy saving 90% of their games at closer, you won't be so happy.