Giancarlo Stanton

[Vottomatic]

I'm bored, and I saw them bantering about on the Sundeck what it would take to get him, and thought it might make for some interesting proposals.

They think the conversation starts with Hamilton. I don't do the deal if it does.

According to the Cincinnati Reds website, here are their top 20 prospects:

1. Hamilton
2. Stephenson
3. Cingrani
4. Corcino
5. Gregorius
6. Travieso
7. Lamarre
8. Lotzkar
9. Soto, Neftali
10. Wright, Ryan
11. Buckley, Sean
12. Greene, Brodie
13. Romano, Sal
14. Winker, Jesse
15. Cisco, Drew
16. Rodriguez, Henry
17. Rosa, Gabriel
18. Waldrop, Kyle
19. Rodriguez, Yorman
20. Garrett, Amir

I'm surprised Donald Lutz isn't on there. But oh well.

First off, I'd consider trading them Chapman, and not Hamilton. I'd love to not trade either. But if I trade them Chapman, then the rest of the compensation won't be that much.

1. Offer them 1 of either Leake/Bailey. If they're trying to keep down payroll, they choose Leake.
2. Ondrusek, Stubbs (throw-in).
3. Stephenson, Corcino, Gregorius, Lamarre, Lotzkar, Soto, Lutz, Yorman Rodriguez, Juan Duran.

[Degenerate39]

Hamilton, Leake, Corcino and Soto

[mth123]

I'll play.

Heisey, Mesoraco, Corcino, Soto and Lotzkar for Stanton and Rob Brantley

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by mth123

I'll play.

Heisey, Mesoraco, Corcino, Soto and Lotzkar for Stanton and Rob Brantley

Yeah, I forgot about Mez. I'd include him in the deal.

[Vottomatic]

What if the Marlins would accept Chapman and Hamilton straight up for Stanton? Would you do that deal?

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

What if the Marlins would accept Chapman and Hamilton straight up for Stanton? Would you do that deal?

If Stanton would extend right now, I would do that.

[kaldaniels]

Hamilton and Bailey as the centerpieces. Or Chapman alone as centerpiece.

Otherwise it would be too easy for another team that wants him to top the Reds offer.

[Dan]

My offer starts with Chapman and Hamilton.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Dan

My offer starts with Chapman and Hamilton.

I don't mean anything personal when I say this, but that's absurd.

Stanton isn't worth that. He's good but that's a ransom.

[Dan]

Originally Posted by Brutus

I don't mean anything personal when I say this, but that's absurd.

Stanton isn't worth that. He's good but that's a ransom.

Um Stanton is a generational talent. He's definitely worth it. He's putting up Hank Aaron and Griffey Jr. numbers. You're telling me you wouldn't move heaven and earth to acquire either of them after they only spent two years I'm the majors?

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Dan

Um Stanton is a generational talent. He's definitely worth it. He's putting up Hank Aaron and Griffey Jr. numbers. You're telling me you wouldn't move heaven and earth to acquire either of them after they only spent two years I'm the majors?

There were 17 players who recorded more WAR than Stanton's 5.8 last year. Must be a lot of generational talents in baseball right now.

In the peak of his career, Griffey was a 7-10 win player. Now THAT is a generational talent.

[Dan]

Originally Posted by Brutus

There were 17 players who recorded more WAR than Stanton's 5.8 last year. Must be a lot of generational talents in baseball right now.

In the peak of his career, Griffey was a 7-10 win player. Now THAT is a generational talent.

Except for perhaps Trout, none of those players was 22 or under. (I haven't checked) And Griffey's first 7+ WAR season (using b-r.com) wasn't until his age 23 season.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Brutus

There were 17 players who recorded more WAR than Stanton's 5.8 last year. Must be a lot of generational talents in baseball right now.

In the peak of his career, Griffey was a 7-10 win player. Now THAT is a generational talent.

First, Stanton was a 6 WAR player in only 500 PAs of playing time. The players ahead of him on that list achieved their WAR with an average of 165 more PAs. Basically they had the benefit of roughly playing a quarter of the season more than Stanton. Only two players had greater than 5.8 WAR when their playing time was normalized to Stanton's (Trout and Posey). Or to put it another way, if Stanton was normalized to the average playing time of the guys above him, he was on pace to be a 7.7 WAR player.

Second, how many were 22 or younger? (hint: 2: Heyward and Trout). The average age of the 17 position players you're referring to is 28. It's not really fair to compare Stanton at age 22 to Jr during his peak years though when using important context such as playing time and age, Staton is hanging right with young Jr. That said, I think most would concede that Stanton is probably likely to be somewhere below the career of one of the top 5 centerfielders of all time but Stanton is not at his peak and he could easily be a 7 to 10 WAR guy at age 28. The guy is a very unique, elite trueskill player.

Third, Chapman is a relief pitcher. He was one of the most dominating bullpen arms in the majors last year and was only worth 3.3 WAR. He may become a dominant starter. He MAY. Right now it's counting unhatched chickens. Speaking of unhatched chickens, that's what Hamilton is as well. Would Chapman's WAR double as a starter? How many starting pitchers posted a WAR over 6 last season? (hint 2: Verlander and King Felix). It generally takes such an arm somewhere in the neighborhood of 230-250 innings to do it. Is Chapman a lock to ever pitch 230 innings? If he did, would he do it with a FIP around 3 or lower? As unhatched chickens go, it seems writing Chapman in as a 6.5 WAR pitcher in ink is assuming a great deal.

When talking about a team that should contend for the WS over the next several seasons, i'll take a bird in the hand over two in the bush.

[cinreds21]

Yes he is.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

Yes he is.

No he's really not. Stanton had a very good 5.8 WAR. But Chapman had 3.3 WAR as a reliever. As a starter, it's likely that will nearly double.

So no, he's not worth throwing in Billy Hamilton on top of it.