Discuss Reds 2006 Reds Draft picks here

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by NewEraReds

i cant, they werent in Dayton at 19. they were still in low a, but i was just looking up their dayton numbers

all i know is 40 freakin doubles and 10 freakin tripples is a lot anywhere. add that to 20 homers. amazing numbers. once he learns to hit to left better, look out. the only bad number is his obp, which you hope goes up as he learns and matures

Ok, show what they did in the Midwest league at 19 while playing for Rockford. However since I found it, I will show it.
Adam Dunn - 19 years old - Midwest League

Year G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO  AVG  OBP  SLG OPS 
1999 93 313 62 96 16 2  11 44  46 64 .307 .399 .476 .875

Austin Kearns - 19 years old - Midwest League

Year G   AB  R  H   2B  3B HR RBI BB  SO  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS 
1999 124 426 72 110 36  5  13 48  50 120 .258 .340 .458 .798

Jay Bruce - 19 years old - Midwest League

G  AB   R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO  OBP  SLG  AVG
57 221 38 61 21  5 10  42 18 48 .332 .552 .276

[NewEraReds]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Ok, show what they did in the Midwest league at 19 while playing for Rockford. However since I found it, I will show it.
Adam Dunn - 19 years old - Midwest League

Year G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO  AVG  OBP  SLG OPS 
1999 93 313 62 96 16 2  11 44  46 64 .307 .399 .476 .875

Austin Kearns - 19 years old - Midwest League

Year G   AB  R  H   2B  3B HR RBI BB  SO  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS 
1999 124 426 72 110 36  5  13 48  50 120 .258 .340 .458 .798

Jay Bruce - 19 years old - Midwest League

G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	AVG
57	221	38	61	21	5	10	42	18	48	.332	.552	.276

a lot of similarites between kearns and bruce. low avg, obp. at this point. and bruce still has the same number of 3b and close on hr and rbi, this early in the year.

[Redmachine2003]

Originally Posted by NewEraReds

a lot of similarites between kearns and bruce. low avg, obp. at this point. and bruce still has the same number of 3b and close on hr and rbi, this early in the year.

But Bruce has half the abs and has 80 abs to catch up to Dunn. Bruce's over numbers will be better than both Kearns and Dunn at that point.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Ok, show what they did in the Midwest league at 19 while playing for Rockford. However since I found it, I will show it.
Adam Dunn - 19 years old - Midwest League

Year G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO  AVG  OBP  SLG OPS 
1999 93 313 62 96 16 2  11 44  46 64 .307 .399 .476 .875

Austin Kearns - 19 years old - Midwest League

Year G   AB  R  H   2B  3B HR RBI BB  SO  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS 
1999 124 426 72 110 36  5  13 48  50 120 .258 .340 .458 .798

Jay Bruce - 19 years old - Midwest League

G  AB   R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO  OBP  SLG  AVG
57 221 38 61 21  5 10  42 18 48 .332 .552 .276

doug, look at the Isolated Discipline numbers.

Dunn: .092 IsoD
Kearns: .082 IsoD
Bruce: .056 IsoD

The differentials are exceptionally important because they demonstrate mastery of the strike zone. Secondly, one of the first things you'll bring up about young hitters is their K rate, but you appear to be unaffected by Bruce's. It doesn't actually matter, but if you feel that a young hitter's K rate is important then you should all over Jay Bruce- particularly considering that he hasn't demonstrated anything resembling acceptable plate discipline thusfar.

[dougdirt]

Steel, I am not going to get into the strikeout arguement becuase we have been there and done that. As a 19 year old, his k rate is not as worrisome as say if he were someone who were older. I will be the first guy to tell you that Jay Bruce has his flaws. I also might be the first to tell you that Jay Bruce has a ton of promise. He hit 2 more doubles tonight, and now has 23 on the year in 225 at bats. He did strike out the other 2 times at the plate. He is however hitting .280 and slugging .560. Those are things that I like when I look at his numbers.

[NewEraReds]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

doug, look at the Isolated Discipline numbers.

Dunn: .092 IsoD
Kearns: .082 IsoD
Bruce: .056 IsoD

The differentials are exceptionally important because they demonstrate mastery of the strike zone. Secondly, one of the first things you'll bring up about young hitters is their K rate, but you appear to be unaffected by Bruce's. It doesn't actually matter, but if you feel that a young hitter's K rate is important then you should all over Jay Bruce- particularly considering that he hasn't demonstrated anything resembling acceptable plate discipline thusfar.

oh no, not this crap again. watch the games. IsoD, give me a break. someone, make stats illegal in this country

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by NewEraReds

oh no, not this crap again. watch the games. IsoD, give me a break. someone, make stats illegal in this country

That's pretty good. Heh.

Posted by NewEraReds: "his (Bruce's) bb/so ratio, obp and ability to hit the other way need to improve greatly."

When you referenced Walks and OBP in your earlier post, you were thinking about Isolated Discipline but apparently didn't know you were thinking about Isolated Discipline. And then you called it "crap".

Irony like that will get a chuckle out of me every time.

[Redmachine2003]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

doug, look at the Isolated Discipline numbers.

Dunn: .092 IsoD
Kearns: .082 IsoD
Bruce: .056 IsoD

The differentials are exceptionally important because they demonstrate mastery of the strike zone. Secondly, one of the first things you'll bring up about young hitters is their K rate, but you appear to be unaffected by Bruce's. It doesn't actually matter, but if you feel that a young hitter's K rate is important then you should all over Jay Bruce- particularly considering that he hasn't demonstrated anything resembling acceptable plate discipline thusfar.

And Dunn tries to break the strike out record every year so what the heck did his IsoD in Low A ball have to do with his development. I mean he wasn't a strike out machine in Low A. I mean is Bruce's strike out form being to aggressive, to passive at the plate, not have anyone protecting him in the line so he doesn't get to many good pitches to hit, is there a pitch he just can't layoff right now, Does he try to pull the outside pitch instead of going with it and can he improve what ever is causing his strikeouts (make the adjustment) because when he hits the ball he gets and extra base hit over 50% of the time.

[Az. Reds Fan]

Info on 16th rd pick Jamie Arneson...evidently the Reds are gonna have to pony up to get him.



For Arneson, his 16th-round selection came as a disappointment considering his high expectations entering the draft. The lefty, who helped the Renegades to their first outright conference title since 1976, was chosen in the 9th round out of high school and Arneson had hoped to improve on that.

The 6-foot-5 prospect may have scared off interested teams, though, after switching agents the night before the draft.

"I knew it would be a bit of an issue," he said, "but I didn't know it would be this big."

But Arneson still has college eligibility remaining and a scholarship to play for Mike Martin at Florida State if he so chooses. This summer will be spent pondering options and trying to convince the Reds he's worthy of more money than the average 16th-round pick.

"I'm probably going to play in the Cape Cod league and just show them what I can do and see what they say then," Arneson said.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by Redmachine2003

And Dunn tries to break the strike out record every year so what the heck did his IsoD in Low A ball have to do with his development. I mean he wasn't a strike out machine in Low A. I mean is Bruce's strike out form being to aggressive, to passive at the plate, not have anyone protecting him in the line so he doesn't get to many good pitches to hit, is there a pitch he just can't layoff right now, Does he try to pull the outside pitch instead of going with it and can he improve what ever is causing his strikeouts (make the adjustment) because when he hits the ball he gets and extra base hit over 50% of the time.

I don't at all care about a young player's K rate.

But you'll find that young players who produce very high IsoD numbers at young ages project very well because power- not plate discipline- is the last tool to manifest. Touting a player's power game while expecting that discipline will develop over time is thinking backwards. To be fair, Bruce did show a dash of plate discipline over 80-odd PA in Billings last season but he's been below-average since.

Oh, and to answer your question- Dunn demonstrated well above-average plate discipline (read: high IsoD) from the get-go. It's why he always projected so very well.

[Redmachine2003]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

I don't at all care about a young player's K rate.

But you'll find that young players who produce very high IsoD numbers at young ages project very well because power- not plate discipline- is the last tool to manifest. Touting a player's power game while expecting that discipline will develop over time is thinking backwards. To be fair, Bruce did show a dash of plate discipline over 80-odd PA in Billings last season but he's been below-average since.

Oh, and to answer your question- Dunn demonstrated well above-average plate discipline (read: high IsoD) from the get-go. It's why he always projected so very well.

How did Bonds and Ryan Howard project at that age or early in their careers.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by Redmachine2003

How did Bonds and Ryan Howard project at that age or early in their careers.

Their IsoD numbers were VERY good. For the first two minor league seasons for each...

Barry Bonds: 402 AB/70 BB (1 BB/5.74 AB)
Ryan Howard: 662 AB/96 BB (1 BB/6.90 AB)

Those 402 AB are the entirety of Bonds minor league career (High A and AAA). For Howard's minor league career, he produced a BB rate of 1BB for every 7.54 AB. Others (minor league career- BB per AB)...

2. Jason Giambi: 5.44 AB
3. Travis Hafner: 6.01 AB
4. Jason Bay: 6.81 AB
5. Jim Thome: 6.01 AB
7. Carlos Beltran: 8.79 AB
8. Joe Mauer: 7.99 AB
9. Barry Bonds: 5.74 AB
10. Manny Ramirez: 6.22 AB
12. Kevin Youkilis: 4.32 AB
13. Bobby Abreu: 7.66 AB
17. Nick Johnson: 4.41 AB
16. David Wright: 6.48 AB
18. Grady Sizemore: 7.67 AB
20. Lance Berkman: 4.93 AB

1. Albert Pujols: 10.65 AB
6. Jermaine Dye: 13.81 AB
11. Miguel Cabrera: 10.90 AB
14. Vernon Wells: 10.68 AB
15. Alexis Rios: 15.90 AB
19. Ichiro Suzuki: 9.42 AB (Japan)

You may be wondering why you see numbers in front of those names and why they're put in two groups. It's because you're looking at the minor league walk rates of the MLB 2006 top 20 RC/27 hitters. Here are their current 2006 MLB Isolated Discipline numbers:

2. Jason Giambi: .177 IsoD
3. Travis Hafner: .146
4. Jason Bay: .129
5. Jim Thome: .132
7. Carlos Beltran: .118
8. Joe Mauer: .059
9. Barry Bonds: .223
10. Manny Ramirez: .131
12. Kevin Youkilis: .113
13. Bobby Abreu: .172
17. Nick Johnson: .120
16. David Wright: .074
18. Grady Sizemore: .081
20. Lance Berkman: .074

1. Albert Pujols: .132 IsoD
6. Jermaine Dye: .098
11. Miguel Cabrera: .089
14. Vernon Wells: .052
15. Alexis Rios: .039
19. Ichiro Suzuki: .049

One thing you may want to note is that when we get down to slots 14-20, the players on that list- with only one exception (Nick Johnson)- are the guys who are posting the lowest Isolated Discipline numbers. There are exceptions the other way, of course (and there always will be). For example, Joe Mauer sits in the 8 slot with a .059 IsoD. That's great, but being that high BA hitting is the most difficult thing to do in all of sports (particulary without exceptional power) do we really think that Joe Mauer will finish the season with a .379 BA? But the beauty is that Joe Mauer demonstrated excellent plate discipline early on so he won't have to hit .379 to be mondo-productive.

And look at the second half of the list. Pujols is the freak of course. He always is. That being said, I doubt that Pujols minor league BB rates are a true reflection of his actual plate discipine considering how few minor league AB he was given and that he immediately manifested excellent IsoD rates when he hit the Show. The rest of that second group have been highly volatile during their MLB careers excepting Cabrera. But then Cabrera demonstrated he had a clue at age 17 (Walk rate better than 1 BB/10 AB) and while he was rushed through the Marlins organization he demonstrated the same thing as a 20-year old AA player (1 BB/8.58 AB).

The rest of that second list is as volatile as volatile can be. Neither Dye nor Wells have been able to string together two really productive seasons together so far. Suzuki is actually good about every other year or so. And that's a guy who had his PR folks tell the world that he'd learn to take more walks. Rios? Um. Yeah. No.

The flashpoint for young hitters who demonstrate power potential is about 1BB for every 9.00 AB. And frankly, I'd prefer to see a BB rate lower than 1BB per every 8 AB because that's where the gold is. To be fair, Jay Bruce doesn't have a ton of AB this season and is putting up very good power numbers. And yes, it's possible that he can raise his IsoD numbers over the course of this season. And I hope he does because that'll do a lot to allow us to figure out how likely it is that he'll be able to handle MLB pitching.

[Superdude]

I think I'm getting in on this a little late, but what do you guys think of Ravin? (secondary pitches?) I can't figure out why he's throwing in the high 80's. Everything from his frame to his delivery looks like a power picher. He's not really skinny, but is there a chance of more velocity as he develops?

And....has anyone heard whether or not Watson will be developed as a starter? It says in his scouting report that he's got four usable pitches. I'm still upset we didn't take Anderson, but Watson's heater/curve combo looked pretty filthy in his video.

[Outshined_One]

I agree with much of what has been said, although I think that looking at a guy's K/BB is quite important when attempting to evaluate his numbers in the low minor leagues. This is especially true of power hitters.

It is incredibly hard for a high K/BB player to change that profile over the course of his minor league days, much less his career. There have been a few guys who managed to change that (Sammy Sosa, for example), but those guys are the outliers. In the years I've been following the minors, it seems to me that the hardest tool to teach any young hitter is the ability to take a walk, especially one who is predisposed to taking swings conducive to strikeouts.

A power hitter who posts high K/BB numbers in Low A is dicey. In recent years, names like Brian Dopirak (2004) and Ryan Harvey (2005) come to mind. Both were prolific power hitters in the Midwest League, but both had issues with taking walks and striking out while there. IBBs helped to inflate those numbers, to boot. Unfortunately, both went into the Florida State League and completely tanked (Harvey even moreso than Dopirak thus far). Dopirak was promoted to AA this season (despite hitting .235 last year), but broke his foot early in the year and hasn't seen much time. Harvey is down in the Florida State League and hitting under .200 last I saw. (Edit: I just checked and he's hitting .203 at the moment. Ouch.)

Will this happen to Bruce? No, he is his own man. He will continue to develop and mature as a hitter. But, I think people should be wary about him. He still is down in Low A and is mostly potential at this point. Guys who share his profile have had their share of problems advancing through the minors.