Reds have their reasons for not rushing up Bailey

[oregonred]

Originally Posted by CaptainHook

That is one of the reason I am AGAINST promoting Bailey.

Most uber-young pitchers take their lumps for two or three years before they turn the corner and become above-average pitchers. Take your earlier example of Jeremy Bonderman. The Tigers basically let Bonderman develop for three years while in the majors and only now are they seeing any return on that investment. Bonderman's results from 2003-2005 ranged from atrocious to below-average, and now that he is finally starting to produce he is already in his arbitration years. Bonderman is about to get very expensive for the Tigers and only has two more years until he hits free agency.

I would much rather see the Reds let Bailey develop until he is a fininshed product and has nothing left to prove in the minors. Then, rather than getting nothing out of him while he is cheap, the Reds might be able to get some solid years out of him BEFORE he hits arbitration. If the Reds really want to get four or five good years out of Homer before he hits free agency, it would be in their best interest to wait until he has rounded out his skill-set.

That's the debate: Start the arbitration clock vs. matching him up with the window of a younger and cheaper core.

Year #1 in 2007 of an average #3 type of pitcher in Bailey might be enough to get you over the top and into the playoffs. Then #2 type stuff in 2008, #1/#2 stuff in 2009. Maybe you compete each season for the postseason, drive up attendance and keep Harang/Arroyo/Dunn in place a few more years.

2007 at .500 with no Bailey, then add him in 2008 or 2009 with #2 type stuff and risk having some of your young core gone due to payroll and lower attendance in 2007 (Arroyo's contract is up after 2008, Lopez, Kearns, Dunn all super expensive). Maybe that gets you to finish .500 in 2009??

Bonderman lost 19 and had bad numbers on an awful team but Sabathia came out with #2 type stuff, won 17 games and had a 4.3ish ERA in his first season and led the Tribe to a division title on a team with three aging gas cans in the rotation (Burba/Finley and a going fast downhill Charles Nagy). Dontrelle put his team over the top and into the WS in 2003.

All depends if you believe the Reds will be better positioned in 2007 vs. 2009. The FO has a lot of work to do regardless.

[edabbs44]

All of these hypotheticals about arb/FA clock starting is using the assumption that he is not going to be re-signed. It would be PR suicide if Cincy finally develops a homegrown ace and lets him walk his 1st year of FA.

But let's look at it in another light...what if they call him up early and they are resigned to the fact that they won't sign him when he hits FA. IMO, he would be worth a hell of a lot more when he is two years younger. Just a thought...though I would rather him spend his career in Cincy.

[RFS62]

Originally Posted by Doc. Scott

There's only one answer to the question- it depends on the player.

If Bailey had command of three major-league pitches, he should be up and pitching in the Reds' rotation no matter how old he is.

But he doesn't, so he shouldn't. He has a killer fastball and two high-ceiling-but-inconsistent pitches he hasn't really had to use very much.

Yep, exactly right

[princeton]

if we'd have held back Mario Soto until he developed that third pitch, then we'd currently have another 50 year old AAA pitcher to go along with Chris Michalek.

ultimately, it depends on what's best for the Reds, which is probably but not necessarily what's best for Bailey. From Owen's comments, it sounds as if Bailey is already tuning out his Chattanooga coaches (though I'm probably reading too much into this), and has good reason to believe that he doesn't need to throw anything but fastballs to dominate at AA. A promotion probably happens soon, which is probably to Louisville but a little major league batter shock might help him; and if the shock is felt instead by the major league batters, then it helps the Reds.

[flyer85]

The main argument I see for not bringing Bailey up is he is still building up to throwing enough innings to be a major league starter. Last year he threw around ~100IP, this year he is on pace to throw around 150IP. Next year it should be ~ 180.

If they brought him up they would likely need to give him extra rest and manage his workload very carefully because pushing him past 150IP is not a good idea.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by princeton

if we'd have held back Mario Soto until he developed that third pitch, then we'd currently have another 50 year old AAA pitcher to go along with Chris Michalek.

Hey... today is Mario's 50th birthday.

Happy Birthday Mario

Mario wasn't a FT starter until 23 (in MLB) but he did get in some games in the prior seasons.