|07-14-2006, 12:10 AM||#1|
Join Date: Oct 2004
In-depth look at '07 and beyond
I was bound and determined to figure out why Krivsky did this trade, so I decided to look at a bigger picture. I believe the main reason the trade was made was for this season because our bullpen is awful and we have a lot of offense and no pitching. Did I think we would have gotten a starter out of Lopez and Kearns; Yes but we didnít. That makes me think there was a larger picture to this trade than just bullpen help. Let me start out and say that in no way do I think this is a salary dump. So here we go.
Iíve done some research into some salary numbers for next season. Feel free to critique any of these numbers. Many of you all know more about arbitration figures and things like that. The dollar figures are in millions and for some it is the correct price and for some it is my estimates so look over it and correct me if you see something wrong. I will put an * by the players whose salary figure I know and did not estimate.
I have looked over the 25-man and 40-man rosters and come up with a list of players who I think will be on the team next year no matter what. (Unless they are traded which as you all know is defiantly a possibility). I found 9 pitchers that will be on the 25-Man roster going into next year.
Harang- $4.0 (I will admit Iím clueless on what he will get paid)
I hope and pray our rotation doesnít look like that next year and I figure some of those starters will move to the bullpen when pitchers are signed or traded for.
I also looked into the salaries of the hitters on the team.
C: LaRue- $4.2*
C: Ross- $1.0
IF: Phillips- $.5
3B: Encarnacion- $.4
OF: Denorfia- $.35
CF: Griffey- $12.5*
LF: Dunn- $10.5*
Utl: Freel- $1.7*
I believe those are the players who will defiantly be a part of the 2007 Reds. I figure there will be a few more trades that might take away from this list but for the most part that is everyone on the current roster who will be here next year for sure. That is 17 players and the math will show you that we need 8 more players for a full roster. Maybe it will be Votto or Standridge or Shack that might make the team but for the most part those players are neutral when looking at the overall payroll. That is roughly $51 million dedicated to the team.
I believe there are a few players on the roster that have a chance to be resigned or their option picked up.
IF: Aurilia- $2.0*
IF: Castro- $1.0*
IF: Hatteberg- $2.0
P: Balfour- $.4
That is a total of roughly $5.5 million making my total payroll for the 2007 Reds to be between $51-56 million. And also having between 17-21 players signed.
A quick look at those players who will be back and I see that we need a 2B if they want to keep Freel coming off the bench. Maybe a 1B if Dunn is not moved there, but I seriously believe Aurilia or Hatteberg are going to be signed to play there if Votto doesnít. We defiantly need at least one SP and a Closer if no one steps up.
So we need 1B, 2B, SP, and a Closer. Some of those positions can be picked up for cheap (1B: Votto or Hatteberg) and some might not need to be picked up at all (2B with Freel). But at the most I believe that is what we will need. And if we stick with a $65 million payroll then we have $10-15 million to spend. So I wouldnít be surprised if they have $15-20 million to spend this offseason.
That was a whole lot of words to say this: Even though Krivsky is going to say the move was made for this year; I believe it was also made for payroll flexibility going into this offseason. Iím not writing this season off just yet, but naturally as a Reds fan I am looking forward to next year, and I know there are going to be a lot of new faces in 2007 but with our available money I believe these new faces also have a chance to be good baseball players. So I look for the Reds to be very active this offseason.
Feel free to critique this thread or flat out tell me I took too much time coming up with this cause it makes no sense or its too early to look towards next year.