REDS Chances

[oneupper]

This will appear simple for the Stat majors, but I ran a little simulation to evaluation the REDS chances to make the wild card, using the classic binomial distribution.

I'm assuming 85 wins will be required. (14 wins out of 19 games remaining).

If we consider the probability of winning any one game at 50%

n=19
P= 0.5

Prob (14 or more) = 3.18%
Prob (13 or more) = 8.35%

Factor in the weakness of schedule and put (its a stretch, I know) p at 55%

n = 19
p = 0.55

Prob (14 or more) = 7.78%
Prob (13 or more) = 17.3%


Not good odds, but hey...we've seen it worse.

GO REDS!

http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/apple...omialdemo.html

[guttle11]

"...like one in a thousand?"

"More like one in a million."

"So you're telling me there's a chance!"

[RedFanAlways1966]

Sounds like fuzzy math to me! Good stuff, oneupper, and puts it into perspective... how long the odds are for the REDS.

The REDS best 19 game stretch this year was...
* Apr. 15 - May 4
>> 13-6 record.

Best 19 game stretch since the All-Star Break was...
* Aug. 4 - Aug. 23
>> 11-8 record.

[Unassisted]

Nice to see "slim chance" quantified.

[oneupper]

After the victory over the Padres:

n=18
p = 0.5
Prob (13 or more) = 4.8%

n= 18
p = 0.55
Prob (13 or more wins) = 10.8%

Still a long shot.

[macro]

For 84-78 to win the wildcard, San Diego will have to go 10-9 the rest of the way to tie, while Florida goes 11-7, Philadelphia and San Francisco go 12-7, and the Reds go 12-6. Chances are pretty good that one of those five teams will achieve at least that, so an estimate of 84 wins is probably pretty accurate.

However, it wouldn't be shocking to see none of those teams do worse than the above stated records, so 83 could be enough to slip into a one-game playoff for the wildcard. Not saying I would bet money that 83 wins will be enough, but just grasping for optimism. And besides, the NL has been a .500 league all season, so it's not wildly unreasonable to hope that the other teams continue their .500 ways while the Reds go 11-7 and force a tie with somebody.

The thing that Reds fans, and the players on this team, will have think about all winter is "What if they had gone just 4-5 or 3-6 in those last nine West Coast games instead of 1-8?" My question is, who will agonize over it more this winter, the fans or the players?

[jimbo]

Originally Posted by guttle11

"...like one in a thousand?"

"More like one in a million."

"So you're telling me there's a chance!"

Great Dumb & Dumber reference.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966

Sounds like fuzzy math to me! Good stuff, oneupper, and puts it into perspective... how long the odds are for the REDS.

The REDS best 19 game stretch this year was...
* Apr. 15 - May 4
>> 13-6 record.

Best 19 game stretch since the All-Star Break was...
* Aug. 4 - Aug. 23
>> 11-8 record.

Great stat.. sad.. but great!

[membengal]

Only thing that matter now is the next game in this series.

One down, two to go.

A sweep and this team is more than alive.

Make it happen, boys.

[RedLegSuperStar]

everyone ahead of us in the Wild Card race has been to the playoffs since we have besides the Phillies and they are the city with brotherly love..

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by membengal

Only thing that matter now is the next game in this series.

One down, two to go.

A sweep and this team is more than alive.

Make it happen, boys.

Exactly!

[Reds Nd2]

Originally Posted by macro

The thing that Reds fans, and the players on this team, will have think about all winter is "What if they had gone just 4-5 or 3-6 in those last nine West Coast games instead of 1-8?" My question is, who will agonize over it more this winter, the fans or the players?

The fans, or at least some of them. The players and most fans, if they think about it at all, will realize the futility of placing too much emphasis on a single road trip. One that amounted to way less than 1% of the games played in a very long season.

[Reds Nd2]

As of this morning, the Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds for the Reds winning the Wild Card stand at 5.28118%. The PECOTA adjusted odds of them winning the WC are even less, 4.94984%.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I would think that if they won the next two (putting them 1/2 game back), those percentages have to shoot up to something like 25-30%.

5% to 25-30%. that's a pretty big jump for two games. Of course, it's late and every game is huge at this point.

We'll see.

[vaticanplum]

Originally Posted by macro

However, it wouldn't be shocking to see none of those teams do worse than the above stated records, so 83 could be enough to slip into a one-game playoff for the wildcard. Not saying I would bet money that 83 wins will be enough, but just grasping for optimism. And besides, the NL has been a .500 league all season, so it's not wildly unreasonable to hope that the other teams continue their .500 ways while the Reds go 11-7 and force a tie with somebody.

Funnily enough, here were my predictions for the NL Central this year over at deadspin.com, which at the time were kind of bizarro I think since everyone was calling for the Brewers to surprise, the Cubs to be good, and the Reds to finish last:

It's too early for the Brewers. They'll have a great first half, make the Cards nervous, fall apart, and go from fourth in 2006 to first next year. Pirates suck no matter what happens. Cubs cry no matter what happens. Astros shock everybody and manage to pull out second again. Cincinnati trades for pitching before the deadline and pulls up to third with only 82 wins. This is a terrible division by the way.

Maybe I will be proven a prophet! I hope not.