Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

[Superdude]

I think Stubbs will make the majors, but his potential with the bat could pretty much go anywhere on the spectrum.

[TeamSelig]

What are his numbers for the year?

[dabvu2498]

Originally Posted by TeamSelig

What are his numbers for the year?

.252/.368/.400
19-23 SBs
7 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 39 R
64 K, 32 BB, 210 AB

[Patrick Bateman]

I like the fact that he has shown some good patience this season. That's a good sign. With that kind of patience he just needs to be able to hit about .250 with 20 homer power to be an effective player once you factor in his great fielding in CF.

[texasdave]

Originally Posted by dabvu2498

.252/.368/.400
19-23 SBs
7 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 39 R
64 K, 32 BB, 210 AB

Drew Stubbs had a fine playoff series. If you include these two games along with his regular season performance he ended up:obp-.374/slg-.433/ops-.807with 8 homers. A nice recovery from the doldrums he was in earlier in the summer.

p.s. i posted this previously on another thread, but i figure it might apply here as well.

[flyer85]

Stubbs was not even close to one of the better offensive players on the Mustangs. Those numbers are very poor for a league notorious for lots of offense.

He can turn it around but he will have to shine next year to make everyone forget about Billings and the question of hit ability to hit go away.

[texasdave]

On 8/16 Drew Stubbs suffered a concussion. He returned to the lineup on the 24th. From that point on until the finish of the season he tallied the following numbers:
AB-47
H-14
2B-2
HR-4
BB-9
HBP-O
SF-O

Using these numbers Stubbs had the following:
BA-.298
OBP-.411
SLG-.596
OPS-1.007

This could simply have been a hot streak or it could have been an indication that he was turning it around. I honestly don't know, but I hope it was the latter. In any case it seems clear that he has shown enough that he can't be written off as a bust. Not just yet.

[mbgrayson]

There are several threads on Drew Stubbs, and as I have posted before, I think people in RedsZone are being way too hard on Stubbs. Four quick points;

1. He was injured. People above mentioned that he missed 10 or 12 games with a concussion (see THIS LINK for details). Nobody has mentioned his lingering toe injury. (See THIS LINK for details on that).

2. He played a LOT of games with almost no down time. Drew Stubbs and the Texas Longhorns started playing games that counted in early February. HERE is a link to their games. They played all the way through the college world series, into the first week of June.
(During this 2006 college season, Stubbs played in 62 games, had 243 ABs, hit .342, .439 OBP, .580 SLG, 12 HRs, and stole 26 bases in 32 attempts.)

In 2004 and 2005, Stubbs played on Team USA in international competition. They played a 5 week schedule from July through August those years. "A two-time USA Baseball National Team member as well as Academic All-American, Stubbs was an integral part of Texas 2005 national title squad and helped the Americans capture a gold medal during the 2004 FISU Championships." In 2005 at Texas, Stubbs played 72 games, hit .311, had a .384 OBP, .527 SLG, 11 HRs, and stole 32 bases in 38 attempts. This year Stubbs has again kept playing ball after the college season. He signed quickly, and went to Billings.

3. He has to adjust to pro ball, wood bats, and playing every day. With aluminum, hitters own the inside part of the plate. Not so with wood. Granted, he didn't jump out and rip up the Pioneer League the way some have. However, he was coming around. Counting the playoffs, he hit over .300 and had much better power the last month of the season. His OPS went from .705 in July, to .807 in August, to .929 in September. (not counting the playoffs.) See THIS LINK for Stubb's splits.

4. Small sample size. If he had 10 more hits at Billings, he would have hit .300. Pioneer League baseball is a classic 'small sample size' league. Also Stubbs has missed about 17 games, between his toe injury, his concussion from a collision in the outfield. Even then, Stubbs had a .368 OBP.

I remain optimisitic. I predict that Drew Stubbs will have a break-out season next year at Dayton.

[jmcclain19]

If "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts..as the saying goes.

His patience is a good thing - and may bode well for a turnaround in the future.

Problem is good college hitters are supposed to skip Rookie ball or dominate, due to their advanced age, polish as a hitter and length of time playing baseball.

I had a Stubbs related post a month or so ago about this very topic, where I compared Stubbs to over 50 recent Reds players. The only people who really struggled lik Stubbs did were high school draftees and FA signings, not kids who've had 3 extra years of college ball to become a better hitter.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50707

I'm not hoping for his downfall. Heck knows the Reds can use every bit of good farm system news they can get. But I just have this feeling that Stubbs will get every chance in the world to succeed, and will end up taking the Reds money and going somewhere else to make a living.

[traderumor]

Problem is good college hitters are supposed to skip Rookie ball or dominate, due to their advanced age, polish as a hitter and length of time playing baseball.

That is a mighty broad brush to simply write off "ifs and buts" as you put it. I really don't think that is fair compared to some legitimate points made in the analysis of mbgrayson.

[guttle11]

Until Stubbs has 1000 ABs in professional baseball it's too early to even make an educated guess.

[cincyinco]

Once again folks, its way.. Way.. WAY to early to give up on Stubbs, and its still early to make a fair judgement against him. He didn't go "Evan Longoria" on rookie league, but he sure wasn't doing an impression of Matt Bush either.

Next year is when we can start forming a more valid opinion on Mr. Stubbs true abilities. Baseball is a game of patience. Try to excersize some.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by cincyinco

Once again folks, its way.. Way.. WAY to early to give up on Stubbs, and its still early to make a fair judgement against him. He didn't go "Evan Longoria" on rookie league, but he sure wasn't doing an impression of Matt Bush either.

Next year is when we can start forming a more valid opinion on Mr. Stubbs true abilities. Baseball is a game of patience. Try to excersize some.

If he were 19, I'd be 100% in your camp. But he's not, so I'm not.

[johngalt]

Chris Valaika, Danny Dorn, Justin Turner and Logan Parker sure did a good job of hitting extremely well while adjusting to aluminum bats, the switch to pro ball and continuing to play after their college seasons.

Is it a small sample size? Sure. But years of history have shown that college players who struggle or perform somewhat below average in rookie leagues typically have trouble becoming Major League players.

[mbgrayson]

Originally Posted by johngalt

Chris Valaika, Danny Dorn, Justin Turner and Logan Parker sure did a good job of hitting extremely well .....

I agree all of these guys hit well. These Mustangs were 4 of the top 11 in batting average and OBP in the entire Pioneer League. I like ALL of these guys.

But, at the risk of repetition, the following points:
1. These guys weren't hurt. All four played more games than Stubbs, even though a couple signed and started later. (Dorn and Turner only played one game in June, while Stubbs played 11.)
2. Counting the playoffs, the power production from these 4 and Stubbs is almost the same. Stubbs had 8 HRs, Dorn had 8, Valaika had 8, Turner had 6, and Parker had 9.
3. On base percentage: Stubbs .374, Valaika .387, Turner .411, Parker .425, and Dorn .457. Keep in mind that all 5 of these guys were in the top 25 in their league.
4. Stolen bases: Stubbs 19, Turner 12, Dorn 3, Valaika 2, and Parker 2.
5. Errors: Valaika 15, Turner 9, Parker 9, Stubbs 2, Dorn 1. (Stubbs and Dorn are outfielders, the other 3 play short, 2nd, and 1st respectively).
6. Walks: Parker 41, Dorn 36, Stubbs 32, Valaika 24, Turner 23.

The main problem Stubbs has continues to be strikeouts. That reduces his average and OBP compared to the other guys. Ks- Stubbs 64, Valaika 61, Parker 47, Turner 389, and Dorn 36.

Originally Posted by johngalt

But years of history have shown that college players who struggle or perform somewhat below average in rookie leagues typically have trouble becoming Major League players.

First of all, where is this proven? I have seen a lot of college players struggle in their first year, and then do just fine. Secondly, I don't agree that Stubbs performance was "below average". Maybe "below expectations", but it was not that bad. See above.

Current players and their 1st year pro numbers:
1. Justin Morneau in 1999: .302 avg/.333 OBP/0 HRs: Repeated rookie ball again in 2000 and thrived.
2. David Wright in 2001: .300 avg/.391 OBP/4 HRs. Only hit .266 in A ball the next year...
3. Lastings Milledge in 2003: .231 avg/.323 OBP/0 HRs.
4. Robinson Cano in 2001: .230 avg/.330 OBP/3 HRs.
5. Ryan Howard in 2001 .272 avg/.384/6 HRs
6. Jason Bay in 2000 .304 avg/.358 OBP/2 HRs
7. Edwin Encarnacion 2000: .311 avg/.381 OBP/0 HRs
8. Joey Votto 2002: .269 avg/.342 OBP/9 HRs
9. Carlos Lee in 1994: .125 avg/.183 OBP/0 HRs
10. Carlos Beltran in 1995: .278/.332/0 HRs
11. Adam Dunn in 1998 .288/.404/4 HRs
12. Barry Bonds in 1985 .299/.383/13
13. Sammy Sosa in 1986 .275/.336/4
14. Jim Thome in 1989 .237/.314/0
15. Drew Stubbs 2006 .258./.374/8

You get the point. You just can't always predict how a guy will do based on his first year in the pros. I know several of these guys did not play college ball. I agree that home run power often comes at a later age, and that few 18 year olds have pro power.

Still, my point is that only time tells the quality of the player.