If I were GM for the offseason... - Page 2 - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

redsrule2500 · 10-06-2006, 03:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nmculbreth

I'd blow it up and start from scratch.

My first order of business would be to trade Dunn, preferrably for Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar. I'd even be willing to make the deal Dunn straight up for Santana.

My second order of business would be to shop Arroyo. I'm not sure anyone really believes that he will be able to replicate his 2006 numbers but his reasonable contract should make him very attractive to teams looking for quality starters. I'm not sure what I'd expect to get for him but I think two advanced prospects (preferably one pitcher and one position player) would be a good starting point.

Dump Griffey, LaRue and Milton for whatever you can get. I'd be fine with getting nothing in return for them if I was able to get a team to eat a substantial part of their remaining salary.

Keeping with the rebuilding theme, I wouldn't make any major acquisitions for next season. I'd rather save the money to make a run at Vernon Wells next offseason.

Lose. Too many years of this crap, we need to win asap.

BoilerBC11 · 10-06-2006, 09:40 AM

I think your undervaluing Arroyo. He is really good trade bait for a small market team, based on his low salary. If they need more though, we could easily throw in another pitcher or 2 to make the deal. Maybe Darrell Thomson and Sam Leclure?

Slyder · 10-06-2006, 10:57 AM

Why trade Arroyo for hitting? We arent the Twins with pitching coming out the wazoo! We need to build around Harang and Arroyo not dismantle it. We saw how far just offense could carry us the past 3 years. We need 1 more good/great starter and wed be IN THE PLAYOFFS not on the outside looking in, IMO. Unless youre getting a "too good to be true" offer for Arroyo he wouldn't be going anywhere for me. Crawford doesnt do enough to help the offense for one of our "aces".

klw · 10-06-2006, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by westofyou

That's because the mob was too busy clubbing their own.

I actually raised the Clement in the "Great Merged Dunn bashing thread" that disappeared then again in the "What happened to the Dunn Bashing Thread?" thread. http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...hlight=clement

RedsManRick · 10-06-2006, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slyder

Why trade Arroyo for hitting? We arent the Twins with pitching coming out the wazoo! We need to build around Harang and Arroyo not dismantle it. We saw how far just offense could carry us the past 3 years. We need 1 more good/great starter and wed be IN THE PLAYOFFS not on the outside looking in, IMO. Unless youre getting a "too good to be true" offer for Arroyo he wouldn't be going anywhere for me. Crawford doesnt do enough to help the offense for one of our "aces".

Because sometimes you can trade Mark Mulder for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton. I don't think anybody is on the "get rid of Arroyo" train. More like, "Let's see if we can get somebody to overpay for what may go down as Arroyo's career year, improving the team while not taking a single step back."

Seems like everybody likes the idea of sell high / buy low until you realize that selling high means trading a good player. You have to have in your judgement that a player has peaked. I don't think Arroyo will ever be better or cheaper than he is right now. Unless you honestly think that the Reds could be in the World Series in a year, it maxes sense to get the most value out of Arroyo as possible.

44Magnum · 10-06-2006, 12:04 PM

Any offseason plan that does not include getting rid of Jr. and Milton is crazy. They have to go. I would also demand that Dunn drop 50 lbs. and move to 1b. After that, I would then address pitching and 2b/SS.

klw · 10-06-2006, 12:04 PM

It seems that Crawford is the hot pick and would cost a bundle. Given the Reds need for Outfield depth but lack of players to move while staying in short and long term contention, if an outfielder from Tampa/ Tampa Bay/St. Pete/ Team Clark Rays/Devil Rays was the goal, the Reds would be better served targeting Baldelli or Gomes. Both are potentially undervalued at this time.

I think the Reds should target Ray Durham to play second for 2 years at 11 million (he made 5mil this year). He is coming off one of, if not, his best offensive years and despite being in his mid-30's has not shown much of decline in his range factor.

SS- Phillips
LF- Dunn
2- Durham
rf- Griffey
3- Encarnacion
1- Aurillia
CF- Baldelli
C- Ross

bench
Freel
Hopper
Castro
Hatteburg
Valentin

SR
Harang
Arroyo
Eaton
Lohse
Milton

RP
Cormier
Weathers
Shoenwiess
Coffey
Kyle Snyder
Bray
Majewski

There that's a start with what is there. The alternative is to blow things up ala Florida and move Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, Cormier. Get as many prospects as possible and install them.
Go:
1. Votto
2. Castro/Harris
ss. Phillips
3. Encarnacion
c. Valentin/Larue
CF Griffey
LF Deno
RF ?

Bench
Hopper
Hatteburg
?

Rotation (Plan to add arms in trade, move up Cueto in July)
Lohse (if takes lowball offer)
Milton
Bailey
Ramirez
Claussen

Pen
Bray
Majewski
Coffey
Guevara
Salmon
Weathers (expect to move at deadline)
Schoenwiess (closer but move at deadline)

This roster would also be affected by who came in the blowup. any further vets who could be moved at the deadline would be. Be pleased if get to 60 wins in year one.

So far I think this administration is unlikely to blow things up because they are trying to win now. I don't think they will move Dunn unless it improves the team's ablility to win now. Right now the offense was worse down the stretch then the pitching. They can afford to dump offense for a starter and a prospect unless that offense is replaced eslewhere and Carlos Lee isn't coming to Cincy.

Slyder · 10-06-2006, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Because sometimes you can trade Mark Mulder for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton. I don't think anybody is on the "get rid of Arroyo" train. More like, "Let's see if we can get somebody to overpay for what may go down as Arroyo's career year, improving the team while not taking a single step back."

Seems like everybody likes the idea of sell high / buy low until you realize that selling high means trading a good player. You have to have in your judgement that a player has peaked. I don't think Arroyo will ever be better or cheaper than he is right now. Unless you honestly think that the Reds could be in the World Series in a year, it maxes sense to get the most value out of Arroyo as possible.

IF we got that type of package then I would consider it but the sound of this thread everyone wants to trade Arroyo for Carl Crawford, hence my "why trade pitching for hitting".

klw · 10-06-2006, 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slyder

IF we got that type of package then I would consider it but the sound of this thread everyone wants to trade Arroyo for Carl Crawford, hence my "why trade pitching for hitting".

You trade pitching for hitting if your pitching is overvauled/ you don't expect to win now/ you think the pitching can be more easily replaced/ the hitter is a special player/ you think Arroyo will go the route of Jimmy Hayes not Harang/ you are not expecting to win now and are blowing it up of 2009.

dunner13 · 10-06-2006, 12:52 PM

We shouldnt even be talking about arroyo for crawford, cause it would never happen. If you really want crawford your giving up bailey. We need to keep arroyo and harang. Keep Dunn, we need his bat whether you like him or not. Add a starter, most likely either wolf, padilla or meche. Add an OF like Hunter, put freel/aurilla at second. And we make the playoffs. We were only a couple of games away this year. If hatte struggles bring up voto, as soon as a starter goes down bring up bailey.

Slyder · 10-06-2006, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by klw

You trade pitching for hitting if your pitching is overvauled/ you don't expect to win now/ you think the pitching can be more easily replaced/ the hitter is a special player/ you think Arroyo will go the route of Jimmy Hayes not Harang/ you are not expecting to win now and are blowing it up of 2009.

Jimmy Haynes has sucked, will suck, and always will suck. Arroyo's season this year alone blows Haynes out of the water. And again We are not the Twins we dont have pitching spects out the ying yang. If you trade Arroyo you better get pitching depth not more offense. We have seen for the past 3-4 years what no pitching and all hitting gets you... Nowhere.

nmculbreth · 10-06-2006, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redsrule2500

Lose. Too many years of this crap, we need to win asap.

The rebuilding process was never done properly, hence the reason we've been bad for a decade. I'd love to have a winning ballclub on the field next season but I don't think that is a realistic expectation. The organization has a number of bad contracts eating up a large portion of it's payroll and very few major league ready prospects so how do we add the pieces we need to make this team a contender?

I'm tired of short term fixes and I'm willing to suffer a couple bad seasons for the promise of a brighter future.

ED44 · 10-09-2006, 10:17 AM

I love the idea of Dunn for Santana and Aybar. I'm not sure the Angels would play along though. If they would, do it in a heartbeat. If they wouldn't send Aybar over, try to get a McPhereson thrown in the deal. He had loads of potential, but couldn't stay healthy. He would be worth taking a risk on and hope he puts up a B.P. type season.

Would the Tigers trade Zumaya and Thames for Dunn? Would you? That would give the Reds a closer and replacement in LF, who put up some good numbers.

I also like the idea of signing Hunter to play CF. He has grerat range, some pop, and speed. He may be too costly though for the production.

I'm all for trading LaRue and Milton for a bag of balls, but would anyone want them. if we packaged Deno with Larue, maybe we could get something in return without having to eat all of LaRue's salary. With Deno gone, sign a Dave Roberts to platoon with Freel in RF. This gives you a lefty/righty with speed at the top of the order.

Try and sign another starter, whether it be Ohka or Padilla. I like either of them as #4's. I don't think you will find a taker on Milton, so make him #5 starter, giving the Reds one lefty in the rotation.

I would look at Baez as a closer. If he doesn't work, I would take a look at Lohse. He throws hard and has good stuff. I'm not sure he has the mentality of a closer, but it could work. The pickings are slim on the closer FA wire, so trying to find one from within may have to happen.

Finally, I would pickup Aurilia's contract. He was one of out more productive hitters throughout the season.

10-06-2006, 09:40 AM	#17
BoilerBC11 Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 53	Re: If I were GM for the offseason... I think your undervaluing Arroyo. He is really good trade bait for a small market team, based on his low salary. If they need more though, we could easily throw in another pitcher or 2 to make the deal. Maybe Darrell Thomson and Sam Leclure?

10-06-2006, 10:57 AM	#18
Slyder Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 3,061	Re: If I were GM for the offseason... Why trade Arroyo for hitting? We arent the Twins with pitching coming out the wazoo! We need to build around Harang and Arroyo not dismantle it. We saw how far just offense could carry us the past 3 years. We need 1 more good/great starter and wed be IN THE PLAYOFFS not on the outside looking in, IMO. Unless youre getting a "too good to be true" offer for Arroyo he wouldn't be going anywhere for me. Crawford doesnt do enough to help the offense for one of our "aces".

10-06-2006, 12:04 PM	#21
44Magnum Member Join Date: May 2003 Location: SW Ohio Posts: 434	Re: If I were GM for the offseason... Any offseason plan that does not include getting rid of Jr. and Milton is crazy. They have to go. I would also demand that Dunn drop 50 lbs. and move to 1b. After that, I would then address pitching and 2b/SS.

10-06-2006, 12:04 PM	#22
klw Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: New England Posts: 4,289	Re: If I were GM for the offseason... It seems that Crawford is the hot pick and would cost a bundle. Given the Reds need for Outfield depth but lack of players to move while staying in short and long term contention, if an outfielder from Tampa/ Tampa Bay/St. Pete/ Team Clark Rays/Devil Rays was the goal, the Reds would be better served targeting Baldelli or Gomes. Both are potentially undervalued at this time. I think the Reds should target Ray Durham to play second for 2 years at 11 million (he made 5mil this year). He is coming off one of, if not, his best offensive years and despite being in his mid-30's has not shown much of decline in his range factor. SS- Phillips LF- Dunn 2- Durham rf- Griffey 3- Encarnacion 1- Aurillia CF- Baldelli C- Ross bench Freel Hopper Castro Hatteburg Valentin SR Harang Arroyo Eaton Lohse Milton RP Cormier Weathers Shoenwiess Coffey Kyle Snyder Bray Majewski There that's a start with what is there. The alternative is to blow things up ala Florida and move Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, Cormier. Get as many prospects as possible and install them. Go: 1. Votto 2. Castro/Harris ss. Phillips 3. Encarnacion c. Valentin/Larue CF Griffey LF Deno RF ? Bench Hopper Hatteburg ? Rotation (Plan to add arms in trade, move up Cueto in July) Lohse (if takes lowball offer) Milton Bailey Ramirez Claussen Pen Bray Majewski Coffey Guevara Salmon Weathers (expect to move at deadline) Schoenwiess (closer but move at deadline) This roster would also be affected by who came in the blowup. any further vets who could be moved at the deadline would be. Be pleased if get to 60 wins in year one. So far I think this administration is unlikely to blow things up because they are trying to win now. I don't think they will move Dunn unless it improves the team's ablility to win now. Right now the offense was worse down the stretch then the pitching. They can afford to dump offense for a starter and a prospect unless that offense is replaced eslewhere and Carlos Lee isn't coming to Cincy. Last edited by klw; 10-06-2006 at 12:30 PM. Reason: Add more

10-06-2006, 12:52 PM	#25
dunner13 Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 589	Re: If I were GM for the offseason... We shouldnt even be talking about arroyo for crawford, cause it would never happen. If you really want crawford your giving up bailey. We need to keep arroyo and harang. Keep Dunn, we need his bat whether you like him or not. Add a starter, most likely either wolf, padilla or meche. Add an OF like Hunter, put freel/aurilla at second. And we make the playoffs. We were only a couple of games away this year. If hatte struggles bring up voto, as soon as a starter goes down bring up bailey.

10-09-2006, 10:17 AM	#28
ED44 Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Mount Sterling, KY Posts: 335	Re: If I were GM for the offseason... I love the idea of Dunn for Santana and Aybar. I'm not sure the Angels would play along though. If they would, do it in a heartbeat. If they wouldn't send Aybar over, try to get a McPhereson thrown in the deal. He had loads of potential, but couldn't stay healthy. He would be worth taking a risk on and hope he puts up a B.P. type season. Would the Tigers trade Zumaya and Thames for Dunn? Would you? That would give the Reds a closer and replacement in LF, who put up some good numbers. I also like the idea of signing Hunter to play CF. He has grerat range, some pop, and speed. He may be too costly though for the production. I'm all for trading LaRue and Milton for a bag of balls, but would anyone want them. if we packaged Deno with Larue, maybe we could get something in return without having to eat all of LaRue's salary. With Deno gone, sign a Dave Roberts to platoon with Freel in RF. This gives you a lefty/righty with speed at the top of the order. Try and sign another starter, whether it be Ohka or Padilla. I like either of them as #4's. I don't think you will find a taker on Milton, so make him #5 starter, giving the Reds one lefty in the rotation. I would look at Baez as a closer. If he doesn't work, I would take a look at Lohse. He throws hard and has good stuff. I'm not sure he has the mentality of a closer, but it could work. The pickings are slim on the closer FA wire, so trying to find one from within may have to happen. Finally, I would pickup Aurilia's contract. He was one of out more productive hitters throughout the season.

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