My Reds Top 40 Prospect list

[dougdirt]

Long offseason, but here is the list i came up with. Anyone have their own lists? Lets have some discussion about just Reds prospects as well.

1. Homer Bailey - RHP, 20, Chattanooga

2. Jay Bruce - OF, 19, Dayton

3. Joey Votto - 1B, 23, Chattanooga

4. Travis Wood - LHP, 19, Dayton

5. Johnny Cueto - RHP, 20, Sarasota

6. Drew Stubbs - OF, 22, Billings

7. Chris Valaika - SS/2B, 21, Billings

8. Milton Loo - SS/3B, 20, GCL

9. Javon Moran - OF, 24, Chattanooga

10. Sam Lecure - RHP, 22, Sarasota

11. Paul Janish - SS, 24, Chattanooga

12. Justin Turner - 21, 2B, Billings

13. Josh Ravin - RHP, 18, Billings

14. Sean Watson - 21, RHP, Dayton

15. Tyler Pelland - 23, LHP, Chattanooga

16. Drew Anderson - 23, 2B, Chattanooga

17. Carlos Fisher - 23, RHP, Dayton

18. Jordan Smith - 20, RHP, Billings

19. Daryl Thompson - 20, RHP, GCL

20. Craig Tatum - 23, C, Dayton

21. Chris Dickerson - 24, OF, Chattanooga

22. Jon Coutlangus, 25, LHP, Louisville

23. Cody Strait - 23, OF, Sarasota

24. David Shafer - 24, RHP, Chattanooga

25. Calvin Medlock - 23, RHP, Chattanooga

26. Miguel Perez - 23, C, Chattanooga

27. William Bergolla - 23, 2B, Louisville

28. Jerry Gil - 24, IF/OF, AA (just acquired)

29. Brandon Rice - 18, RHP, GCL

30. Phil Dumatrait - 25, LHP, Louisville

31. Rafael Gonzalez - 20, RHP, Dayton

32. Carlos Guevara - 24, RHP, Chattanooga

33. Daniel Dorn - 22, OF, Billings

34. Adam Rosales - 23, SS, Dayton

35. Logan Parker - 22, 1B, Billings

36.. Juan Francisco - 19, 3B, GCL/Billings

37. BJ Szymanski - 24, OF, Dayton

38. Tonys Gutierrez, - 23, 1B, Sarasota

39. Philippe Valiquette -19, LHP, Dayton

40. Camilo Vazquez, - 23, LHP, Chattanooga

[BoilerBC11]

Thanks for the list, I pretend to know a lot about the reds minor leagues, but once we get outa the top 15, im clueless...

With that being said, Im still not sold on Javon Moran, I see him as a 4th OF at best. I also dont ever see Paul Janish becoming an everyday SS. I just dont think these guys will every develop the O it takes to be a big-leaguer. However, with defensive minded WK running the show, who knows.

This then leads me to another question. What did you base your rankings off of? Best potential? closest to potential? or most likely to someday contribute to the reds?

And also, while were on the subject. What do you think of Josh Ravin? I dont know why but i think this kid will be a stud pitcher for us down the road...

[mth123]

Thanks for the list. When it comes to Reds prospects, much of my opinion is based on your well informed comments. That leads me to a few questions about some of your rankings:

What jumps out most is that the group of relievers that many on here have been calling for are all ranked fairly low (Coutlangus 22, Shafer 24, Medlock 25, Guevera 32 and Salmon isn't even on the list). Yet some guys that appear to be no more than roster fodder at the MLB level are ranked above them (Moran 9, Janisch 11, Tatum 20, Dickerson 21). What is the reason for this ranking?

Does it mean the pitchers won't be any help?
Does it mean Moran and Janisch may actually be useful?
Is it just based on middle relievers being less valued than starters or position players?
Is it age based?

I'm just wondering because it seems like the middle relievers on the list have the most chance to make significant contributions to the Reds than anyone out of the top 5 or 10. Its hard to argue with the top 5 and I can see Stubbs, Valaika, Loo and Lecure ahead of these guys, but after that, these relievers seem like the best bet.

Comments?

[lollipopcurve]

Nice list, dd.

A couple more names to throw out there...

Norris Hopper -- I know, "too old" -- but he's likely going to be on the roster, and he's going to be a rookie -- I like Hopper as an extra outfielder/pinch hitter/pinch runner

Wirfin Obispo -- supposedly has a very live arm and his stats from the DSL seem to corroborate that -- I think he'll be in Dayton in 07

[Benihana]

Nice list, Doug.

The top 15 is the prospect list, anything after is the suspect list, with some too early to tell. The top three should all be on the Reds 25-man roster no later than Opening Day 2008, with Bailey and Votto most likely arriving sooner.

I would grade them out like this:

Bailey A+
Bruce A
Votto A-
Wood B
Cueto B
Stubbs C+
Valaika C+

Everyone else- either too early to tell, or nothing worth following regularly yet.

[Danny Serafini]

That sure is one top heavy list. Gets a tad depressing as it goes, but I'd rather have a few As and the rest Cs than all Bs.

[Kc61]

Is Brendan Harris disqualified because he came up to the big club?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by BoilerBC11

With that being said, Im still not sold on Javon Moran, I see him as a 4th OF at best. I also dont ever see Paul Janish becoming an everyday SS. I just dont think these guys will every develop the O it takes to be a big-leaguer. However, with defensive minded WK running the show, who knows.

This then leads me to another question. What did you base your rankings off of? Best potential? closest to potential? or most likely to someday contribute to the reds?

And also, while were on the subject. What do you think of Josh Ravin? I dont know why but i think this kid will be a stud pitcher for us down the road...

I like Moran as someone who will likely be a 4th outfielder, but could start some places. He has the speed to cover the ground in the outfield, and he can hit for a good average. He doesnt walk much, which isnt good when he slumps, but in my mind, I cant ignore a guy who has hit .330 since he became a Reds farmhand. As for Janish, I think he could become a starting SS. He has a very good glove and can cover some ground at SS. He also showed signs that he can actually hit decent enough to maybe get by in the majors. His plate discipline is actually very good. In his minor league career he has walked 120 times and struck out just 137 times, while having an on base percentage 96 points higher than his batting average, which is quite good. With the Reds and Krivsky so high on defense, I think his chances are even better.

As for the basing of my rankings, it was a mix of potential, current ability, likelihood to reach potential and what you have done.

As for Ravin, he is someone I really like. He has 3 pitches that he commands very well and is throwing in the low 90's right now. He has good size for a pitcher and should pack on some more weight as he grows some more. I cant say that I have seen him pitch outside of his draft video, but I like his potential along with his stuff and projectability.

Originally Posted by mth123

What jumps out most is that the group of relievers that many on here have been calling for are all ranked fairly low (Coutlangus 22, Shafer 24, Medlock 25, Guevera 32 and Salmon isn't even on the list). Yet some guys that appear to be no more than roster fodder at the MLB level are ranked above them (Moran 9, Janisch 11, Tatum 20, Dickerson 21). What is the reason for this ranking?

Does it mean the pitchers won't be any help?
Does it mean Moran and Janisch may actually be useful?
Is it just based on middle relievers being less valued than starters or position players?
Is it age based?

I'm just wondering because it seems like the middle relievers on the list have the most chance to make significant contributions to the Reds than anyone out of the top 5 or 10. Its hard to argue with the top 5 and I can see Stubbs, Valaika, Loo and Lecure ahead of these guys, but after that, these relievers seem like the best bet.

Comments?

With the relievers, this is my personal opinion and more often than not, people disagree with me on it, but relievers, who are not top flight Bobby Jenks or Francisco Rodriguez type relievers wont get much attention. I dont see any of those relievers being closers, or at least dominant closers, and I dont think middle relievers impact a game enough to the point where they should be very high on any prospect ranking. Can they be good middle relievers? I think they can be for sure. Just not the closer type material that I think it would take for them to be in the top 15 for the Reds. As for Janish and Moran, I covered that earlier in reply to someone else, but I think both can be useful, yes. Age also comes into play with where some guys ranked. I just think that if some of the position players listed were to reach their potential they would be more valuable than a middle relief guy almost regardless. Just my opinion, Im not always right, but I guess I dont have a high prospect ranking for middle relief.

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Nice list, dd.

A couple more names to throw out there...

Norris Hopper -- I know, "too old" -- but he's likely going to be on the roster, and he's going to be a rookie -- I like Hopper as an extra outfielder/pinch hitter/pinch runner

Wirfin Obispo -- supposedly has a very live arm and his stats from the DSL seem to corroborate that -- I think he'll be in Dayton in 07

Hopper falls into the too old, no power at all mold. He has 4 HR in over 4000 minor league at bats. As for Obispo, I had a few guys who I exchanged ideas with on my list and Onbasemachine was one who was curious as to leaving him off. Basically it came down to this with me for leaving him off....I have absolutely no idea what he throws other than a good fastball. He dominated the DSL, but going over rosters, opposing players were anywhere from 16-23 years old. I have no idea of the competition level down there, and when all of that comes together, I had no true way of getting any type of feel for where to rank him, so I just left him off. I am sure he is a top 40 prospect, but I have no clue on where to rank him at all, so I just left him off completely and left it to prospects in the US.

Originally Posted by Kc61

Is Brendan Harris disqualified because he came up to the big club?

Harris had 110 at bats in the Major Leagues, which makes him eligible for ROY still, but it seemed to be too many for me to include him in the rankings.

[Betterread]

"With the relievers, this is my personal opinion and more often than not, people disagree with me on it, but relievers, who are not top flight Bobby Jenks or Francisco Rodriguez type relievers wont get much attention. I dont see any of those relievers being closers, or at least dominant closers, and I dont think middle relievers impact a game enough to the point where they should be very high on any prospect ranking. Can they be good middle relievers? I think they can be for sure. Just not the closer type material that I think it would take for them to be in the top 15 for the Reds. As for Janish and Moran, I covered that earlier in reply to someone else, but I think both can be useful, yes. Age also comes into play with where some guys ranked. I just think that if some of the position players listed were to reach their potential they would be more valuable than a middle relief guy almost regardless. Just my opinion, Im not always right, but I guess I dont have a high prospect ranking for middle relief."

Good list DD. About the only significant changes would be to add Terrell Young and Jamie Arneson to the list - who both throw very hard in relief - and I would rate Camilo Vazquez in the top 15 and Danny Dorn in the top 20.

[Betterread]

Double post. my mistake.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Betterread

Good list DD. About the only significant changes would be to add Terrell Young and Jamie Arneson to the list - who both throw very hard in relief - and I would rate Camilo Vazquez in the top 15 and Danny Dorn in the top 20.

Vazquez in the top 15? Lets hear why, I am intrigued.

As for Dorn, outside of higher round picks, what happens in rookie ball doesnt overly impress me much. If Dorn comes out next year and tears up whatever league he is playing in, then I am sure he will jump up, at least in my standings. Coming out as a 30 something round pick, he will have to show at the next level that he is up to par rather than a polished college hitter.

[Doc. Scott]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Vazquez in the top 15? Lets hear why, I am intrigued.

As for Dorn, outside of higher round picks, what happens in rookie ball doesnt overly impress me much. If Dorn comes out next year and tears up whatever league he is playing in, then I am sure he will jump up, at least in my standings. Coming out as a 30 something round pick, he will have to show at the next level that he is up to par rather than a polished college hitter.

Supposedly Dorn has more talent than his round-drafted indicates- he was injured and missed a healthy portion of his last college season. But your main point still stands.

Vazquez is post-TJ surgery, and perhaps he's added velocity? That's the only thing I can think of that might elevate him. He held his own in AA after the promotion, but certainly didn't dominate. A ton of unearned runs probably made things look better than they were.
---

As for the list, I'd say Cody Strait and Phil Dumatrait are too low and Milton Loo and Javon Moran are a little high. But overall that's a pretty decent list.

[dougdirt]

Doc, Cody Strait is someone I really like. I absolutely love his speed and power combo... He is a guy I think will have a break out year next year. Dumatrait is low, but I no longer view him as a starter, and reports had him having problems hitting the upper 80's in Louisville with his FB. He also cant get righties out, .284/.357/.449 against him.

[Aronchis]

Nice list, that pretty much accords to mine.

People who think Loo is to high now, will be putting him in the top 5 next year. The kid's a talent.

[Superdude]

What do you have against Vazquez? I don't know anything about his post TJ stuff, but I know he had a good arm out of high school. The guy is still only 22, and struck out almost a batter per innings between Sarasota and Chattanooga while lowering his walk rates to a respectable level. He still needs to bring down his walks a little bit, but you can't take one of the only decent starting pitching prospects we have above A ball and make him #40.