Alex Gonzalez to the Reds

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Sure. But what if 2 years doesn't get it done? It's been reported Gonzalez wants four years. Do you really walk away over that third year and enter a cycle of scavenging for Counsells and Guzmans every winter?

I'd tolerate three years. I wouldn't be happy about it, but I'd tolerate it.

Now if Gonzalez wants four years, some other team can have him. One thing the Reds must avoid is creating a situation where Alex Gonzalez's name ends up on the same list as Eric Milton's, aka the list of bad contracts. Four years of Alex Gonzalez at presumably $5 million per year enters the realm of qualifying as a bad contract. The odds of Gonzalez being an overall positive contributor in 2007 and 2008 are decent, but those odds start to collapse when stretching into 2009 and especially 2010.

There's no need to scrounge around for the Craig Counsells and Cristian Guzmans of the world. The Reds already have a serviceable in-house solution, which involves moving Phillips to shortstop and allowing Ryan Freel and Brendan Harris to split time at second base. Sure, the defensive value is worse this season and next than it'd be if we signed Gonzalez, but the offensive value is better. I'd be very much satisfied with that in-house solution if the only other option is Alex Gonzalez at four years.

[lollipopcurve]

Now if Gonzalez wants four years, some other team can have him.

Agreed. By that time, if nothing else, you maybe have a solution from within the farm system.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

The Reds already have a serviceable in-house solution, which involves moving Phillips to shortstop and allowing Ryan Freel and Brendan Harris to split time at second base. Sure, the defensive value is worse this season and next than it'd be if we signed Gonzalez, but the offensive value is better. I'd be very much satisfied with that in-house solution if the only other option is Alex Gonzalez at four years.

How does Brendan Harris factor into all of this, if at all? Ever sense the trade there hasn't been much talk of him factoring into long term plans. Would he project to be anything more than sericable at 2B? He kinda got glossed over in all the trade discussions and rehashings.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

How does Brendan Harris factor into all of this, if at all? Ever sense the trade there hasn't been much talk of him factoring into long term plans. Would he project to be anything more than sericable at 2B? He kinda got glossed over in all the trade discussions and rehashings.

Brendan Harris is hopefully going to give the Reds a Freel like player with less speed and better infield defense and lower cost, he's known as an intense player and well that plays well in seven hills country. I'm of the opinion that the Reds prefer Freel out of the middle of the infield, so any hope of him starting at second is very likely to be just that, hope.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

How does Brendan Harris factor into all of this, if at all? Ever sense the trade there hasn't been much talk of him factoring into long term plans. Would he project to be anything more than sericable at 2B? He kinda got glossed over in all the trade discussions and rehashings.

He tore it up in Louisville after coming over in the trade. What the Reds need to do is distinguish whether or not that was a fluke or if Harris at least moved himself up to the serviceable level.

No matter which side people are on in the "Freel playing every day" debate, I think two things can easily be predicted in regards to Ryan Freel even if he is slotted to play second base this season (which I don't think is likely, honestly). 1) He's probably only going to play in 130 games, and 2) some of those games will be in the outfield when Griffey decides he wants to make a DL visit. Considering those two caveats and what Harris did last season, I'm fine with Harris getting time at second base if it prevents the Reds from handing out a bad contract.

What the Reds actually will do, who really knows. I'll just be a bit perplexed and annoyed if the Reds decide to spend some money on up-the-middle defense for shortstop and then follow that move up with sending ole #3 out to center field again this season.

Scratch that, I'll be annoyed period if the Reds send ole #3 out to center field again this season.

[lollipopcurve]

Brendan Harris is hopefully going to give the Reds a Freel like player with less speed and better infield defense and lower cost, he's known as an intense player and well that plays well in seven hills country.

I don't see Harris as part of any solution, at least not yet. I know it was a miniscule sample size and he was covered in rust by the time Narron used him, but he didn't impress me much, either in the field or at bat. I was especially disappointed in his defense at 2nd -- he looked awkward. With EdE ensconced, I really wonder what they'll do with Harris. Could be AAAA, through and through.

[M2]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Sure. But what if 2 years doesn't get it done? It's been reported Gonzalez wants four years. Do you really walk away over that third year and enter a cycle of scavenging for Counsells and Guzmans every winter?

I'd walk. For me Gonzalez is already a form of scavenging. If you can't get him on your terms, then look elsewhere. Three years guaranteed would be a deal-breaker for me.

[top6]

I see a lot of talk of stats here, but does any know if Gonzalez plays the game the right way? Is he a winner? Does he have experience on a winning post season team? These are the questions we need to be answering - not silly questions like "how many runs will he generate" or "how many runs will his defense save."

[westofyou]

Could be AAAA, through and through.

True, he might get Chris Woodwarded too, squeeze himself out of the IF and into a not quite good enough for prime time player.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by top6

I see a lot of talk of stats here, but does any know if Gonzalez plays the game the right way? Is he a winner? Does he have experience on a winning post season team? These are the questions we need to be answering - not silly questions like "how many runs will he generate" or "how many runs will his defense save."

I hear he's scrappy and a good presence in the clubhouse....

[WVRedsFan]

Does anyone else see the pattern here? I haven't read all the thread, but look at the kind of player Krivsky covets. Alex Gonzalez fits right into that mold. Good glove and offense is secondary--ony to be used to move the runner over so they can score on another, inevitable ground ball to the right side. A bonus is if he plays the game the right way and knows what to do with the ball. That's why you have Juan Castro on board and why you had Royce Clayton instead of FeLo.

Get prepared to see a lot of Alex Gonzalez-type players on the Reds in the future. Many have faith in Krivsky, but the tank on that is just about empty for me. Every name that pops up that Wayne is interested in just leaves me cold. It's going to be a long winter and an even longer summer.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

Does anyone else see the pattern here? I haven't read all the thread, but look at the kind of player Krivsky covets. Alex Gonzalez fits right into that mold. Good glove and offense is secondary--ony to be used to move the runner over so they can score on another, inevitable ground ball to the right side. A bonus is if he plays the game the right way and knows what to do with the ball. That's why you have Juan Castro on board and why you had Royce Clayton instead of FeLo.

Get prepared to see a lot of Alex Gonzalez-type players on the Reds in the future. Many have faith in Krivsky, but the tank on that is just about empty for me. Every name that pops up that Wayne is interested in just leaves me cold. It's going to be a long winter and an even longer summer.

He is a SS, where is the market for the most important position on the field and a guy that hits like Larkin did?

Nowhere would be the quick answer.

18% of the outs made on a diamond are made by the SS, that's the most by any position on the diamond, Reds fans are spoiled to think that that position should be looked at from hitting and then outwards. That type of player is not falling out of the trees when you give it a shake.

[harangatang]

Originally Posted by westofyou

He is a SS, where is the market for the most important position on the field and a guy that hits like Larkin did?

Nowhere would be the quick answer.

18% of the outs made on a diamond are made by the SS, that's the most by any position on the diamond, Reds fans are spoiled to think that that position should be looked at from hitting and then outwards. That type of player is not falling out of the trees when you give it a shake.

Exactly, I think you can push that farther as well in saying that applies to the catcher position. Not every catcher is Johnny Bench and if the Reds don't have a caliber catcher like Bench, then they aren't good enough.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

Does anyone else see the pattern here? I haven't read all the thread, but look at the kind of player Krivsky covets. Alex Gonzalez fits right into that mold. Good glove and offense is secondary--ony to be used to move the runner over so they can score on another, inevitable ground ball to the right side.

How does David Ross fit into your plans then? His defense is pretty weak, while his offensive was strong in 2006.

Or that EE was kept over Lopez? EE had just as many errors but he wasn't traded.

Or that Dunn is still in LF? Dunn was defensive disaster in 2006 yet he hasn't been shipped out as yet.

Or that ways were found to keep RA in the line up dispite his range being minimal because his bat was hot?

It seems like all of your complaints go back to the trade. At least, many of your posts use the trade as the basis of your dislike of Kriv.

[Cyclone792]

FYI, I just looked up Gonzalez's defensive win shares for the last three seasons just to get an idea how yet another defensive system ranks him.

In 3,405.1 innings from 2004-2006, Gonzalez has 19.6 fielding win shares. Convert that into a rate stat, and we see that Gonzalez has 5.76 fielding win shares per 1,000 defensive innings at shortstop. Bill James created a fielding win shares scale at each position and assigned players letter grades based on their fielding win shares per 1,000 innings. Here's the shortstop fielding win shares letter grade scale:

• A Level = 5.80+ win shares per 1,000 innings
• B Level = 5.00-5.79 win shares per 1,000 innings
• C Level = 4.20-4.99 win shares per 1,000 innings
• D Level = 3.40-4.21 win shares per 1,000 innings
• F Level = Under 3.4 win shares per 1,000 innings

Based on fielding win shares, Gonzalez is just under the A level, or would probably be ranked as an A- defensive shortstop. For comparison purposes, Davey Concepcion was ranked as an A+, and Barry Larkin was ranked as an A.