Mike Stanton a Red

[WVRedsFan]

Originally Posted by mth123

My question as well. Don't forget Shack, Coutlangus, Claussen and Pelland.

It could mean hoarding LH to play the match-up game, but if that's the case the best guy for the role is Shack and he won't make the team now.

It could mean Cormier is trade bait. I hope so. As much as I don't really like him, I think he could bring something in this market (maybe as part of a package).

It could mean that Bray is going to be the closer and they are backfilling his role in the middle innings.

I think its very curious. He's not really an upgrade anymore over anyone they already have.

Not too many pitchers on the edge of 40 are trade bait. Wayne got fleeced there as has been the rule lately.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by reds44

Better defensive will make your pitching better. The SS we signed is one of the best.

Sorry but a 30 some year old who has saved a total of 17 games doesn't seem to be the answer at closer.

The way the staff is lined up right now, I don't know if Olerud, Pokey Reese, Ozzie Smith and Brooks Robby around the horn would help that much.

And Speier had an ERA under 3 last year...in the AL East. I'm sure he would have been just fine at closer.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

But the idea is to add pitching while not giving up tons of offense. I always thought the equation was good hitting + good pitching = wins. Or am I mistaken? Another bullpen arm and still not a move for a starter or a badly needed bat. Maybe it's coming. To sum it up, our direct competition, the Cubs get Soriano and we get Gonzo and Stanton. Fourth place, anyone?

You want to give Soriano 136 mil? I know I don't.

The Cubs STILL have no pitching.

We need another SP and another outfield bat, but it's only November. Plenty of time to get something done.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

The way the staff is lined up right now, I don't know if Olerud, Pokey Reese, Ozzie Smith and Brooks Robby around the horn would help that much.

And Speier had an ERA under 3 last year...in the AL East. I'm sure he would have been just fine at closer.

He's never done it before. Some people just can't close games. Look at what happend to LaTroy Hawkins when he tried to, or Coffey.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by reds44

He's never done it before. Some people just can't close games. Look at what happend to LaTroy Hawkins when he tried to, or Coffey.

I don't know that I'd say Coffey "can't close games." He wasn't really given much of a chance. They threw him out there a couple of times. I remember one of them distinctly as a case of being BABIP unlucky as the other team came back with a few forty two hoppers through the infield. Just one of the many cases where you see the Reds panic with young guys. They'll keep on throwing Ryan Franklin out there in key situations, yet remove Coffey from a legit shot at closer because he didn't have immediate success. Poor developers of talent.

[deltachi8]

Great move for the 1996 season.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by traderumor

I don't know that I'd say Coffey "can't close games." He wasn't really given much of a chance. They threw him out there a couple of times. I remember one of them distinctly as a case of being BABIP unlucky as the other team came back with a few forty two hoppers through the infield. Just one of the many cases where you see the Reds panic with young guys. They'll keep on throwing Ryan Franklin out there in key situations, yet remove Coffey from a legit shot at closer because he didn't have immediate success. Poor developers of talent.

And that is one of the reasons we signed Seabass.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

And Speier had an ERA under 3 last year...in the AL East. I'm sure he would have been just fine at closer.

ERA?????

His DIPS ERA was 3.50 last year, above 4 the year before.

Stanton's has been just as good. And give up quite a bit less HR's.

Speier would be a fine aquistion, but certainly his performance doesn't justify a 4 year deal.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

ERA?????

His DIPS ERA was 3.50 last year, above 4 the year before.

Stanton's has been just as good. And give up quite a bit less HR's.

Speier would be a fine aquistion, but certainly his performance doesn't justify a 4 year deal.

No, his actual ERA. The one that takes place on the field. It was 2.98 last year and 2.56 the year before. Not too bad.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

No, his actual ERA. The one that takes place on the field. It was 2.98 last year and 2.56 the year before. Not too bad.

His Dips tells us that Mr. Speier has been pretty lucky the last few years.

Using ERA to judge a relief pitcher is much like using fielding % to judge fielding prowess. It's only accurate some of the time. You need to look behind it to determine it's accuracy.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

His Dips tells us that Mr. Speier has been pretty lucky the last few years.

Using ERA to judge a relief pitcher is much like using fielding % to judge fielding prowess. It's only accurate some of the time. You need to look behind it to determine it's accuracy.

Of course. The theoretical ERA. But I'll take him over anyone in the Reds bullpen anyway.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Of course. The theoretical ERA. But I'll take him over anyone in the Reds bullpen anyway.

For what it's worth, BP's stats show Speier was less valuable than either Coffey or Weathers in 2006, primarily because he had a bad year with respect to allowing inherited runners to score. Didn't show up on his ERA but it did on the scoreboard. Now, that's the sort of thing that can fluctuate a lot from year-to-year, so I wouldn't draw any conclusions from it. Speier's still a guy I'd like to have signed. But four years for a middle reliever? That's a certified "whaaat?"

[mth123]

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

Not too many pitchers on the edge of 40 are trade bait. Wayne got fleeced there as has been the rule lately.

I think in this market teams may give something to get a LH for the pen for 1 year at $2.25 Million. It may be more attractive than Jamie Walker for 3 years at $10 Million.

I'm not talking about getting A-Rod for him. But maybe a faded prospect to take a shot with, a middling prospect than can be included in a deal later, or some one undervalued that could play a role in Cincy. Maybe even in exchange for the last year of some ones bad contract that could fill a spot in Cincy.

For example, with Walker gone the Tigers may want him. They don't seem to be too shy about old guys and they are smart enough to know that their window is now in spite of the young pitching. A lot of the main guys there are really old. He'd help there. Not sure what you'd get, but he can be moved.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

No, his actual ERA. The one that takes place on the field. It was 2.98 last year and 2.56 the year before. Not too bad.

Truth shuts mouths, as it did mine when we acquired Cormier with his 1 something ERA. I cannot recall who it was, probably Cyclone, but he provided his DIPS ERA and predicted problems. Well, add in Narron's misuse of Cormier when he first got him, and balls were bouncing off the fence or going over it. I knew better than to look at ERA for a reliever, but this one time I was tempted and was reminded again why you do not look at straight ERA, esp. for relievers. DIPS ERA is a really good stat, esp. for relievers. And inherited runners, as has already been pointed out. Don't have access to DIPS ERA or inherited runs numbers? Try K/9 and WHIP, they will always do better with relievers than simple ERA will.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by traderumor

Truth shuts mouths, as it did mine when we acquired Cormier with his 1 something ERA. I cannot recall who it was, probably Cyclone, but he provided his DIPS ERA and predicted problems. Well, add in Narron's misuse of Cormier when he first got him, and balls were bouncing off the fence or going over it. I knew better than to look at ERA for a reliever, but this one time I was tempted and was reminded again why you do not look at straight ERA, esp. for relievers. DIPS ERA is a really good stat, esp. for relievers. And inherited runners, as has already been pointed out. Don't have access to DIPS ERA or inherited runs numbers? Try K/9 and WHIP, they will always do better with relievers than simple ERA will.

His WHIP was under 1 two years ago and I believe his K rate is around one per inning. But I think there is a big enough sample size over 2 years to say his ERA has been pretty good.