Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 10 prospects

[mbgrayson]

Excellent Prospects
1. Homer Bailey, RHP "he's damn good and he knows it"
2. Jay Bruce, RF "Advanced hitter with strong, quick wrists and plenty of in-game power"
Very Good Prospects
3. Joey Votto, 1B " Athletic first baseman combines solid hitting skills with plus power and patience"
Good Prospects
4. Drew Stubbs, CF "Among the best athletes in the game, with size, speed, and tons of raw power potential"
5. Johnny Cueto, RHP "Thrived after moving to the rotation..."
6. Travis Wood, LHP "Lefty with impressive arsenal"
7. Sean Watson, LHP "Aggressive demeanor; commands his pitches well despite questionable mechanics"
Average Prospects
8. Milton Loo, SS/3B "Quick hands and excellent plate coverage leads to line drives sprayed from pole-to-pole"
9. Chris Valaika, SS "Ultra-quick bat with gap power"
10. Paul Janish, SS "A decent hitter who makes plenty of contact "

Of the Reds farm system:

"The beginning of this decade was marked by bad drafts, bad player development, and some just plain ol' bad luck, leaving the Reds system as one of the worst in baseball. While the Bailey/Bruce combination completely changes the equation, the relative lack of talent at Double- and Triple-A means the organization will still be paying the price for the previous administration's foibles for another couple of years."

To see the entire article (Premium content on Baseball Prosepctus : http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=5713

[jmcclain19]

Hmmm...

The Sleeper: Signed in 2003 as a 39th-round draft-and-follow, right-handed reliever Calvin Medlock gets little attention but continues to get batters out at every level, putting up a 2.97 ERA this year at Double-A Chattanooga with 70 strikeouts in 63.2 innings. Despite being listed at 5-foot-10 and looking smaller than that, Medlock deals in the low-90s, touches 95-96 mph, and features a very good changeup.

[mth123]

I didn't see this list last year so I don't know if it is more or less, but for a credible group like Baseball Prospectus to say the Reds have 7 good or better prospects is hopeful IMO. 4 are pitchers, 2 look like cornerstone bats and the other was last years 1st round pick.

Many of these websites are fly by night operations that know no more than we do, but BP knows what its doing.

In March of 2006 the same author said in summary:
- the Reds system is awful
- After Bailey, Bruce and Wood the list is depleted of good players.
- The Reds lack any players at the upper levels who project as regulars.

I'd say having 7 guys considered good is a big leap forward. Bailey and Votto are upper levels now.

[dougdirt]

Heck, of the guys they listed in the top 10, Bailey, Votto, Janish and probably Cueto will start the season at AA or AAA. I think there is talent outside of those guys that will be at AA/AAA after those guys as well.

[cincinnati chili]

Originally Posted by mth123

I didn't see this list last year so I don't know if it is more or less...

I'm pretty sure Kevin Goldstein didn't come on board until '06. If I'm correct, this will bethe first year that Prospectus ranks each team's top 10 prospects, let alone putting them in tiers like Great, Good, etc.

It will be interesting in 5-10 years to compare their listed results to Baseball America and John Sickels and others.

[ochre]

I will continue to be disappointed with the conversion of Medlock to reliever last season. I firmly believe you give guys that have performed, as he has, every chance as a starter. The caveat to that would be bringing them to the majors as relievers as a transition easer. Getting overly concerned about stature and build would have left P. Martinez and Oswalt as relievers in this system too I suppose? Is this the year that Cueto gets converted to a reliever as well?

[Superdude]

Is this the year that Cueto gets converted to a reliever as well?

That's what BP said, but they also said he had a "rudimentary" changeup. From everything I heard, Cueto developed a good changeup this season, I seriously doubt Cueto will be converted any time in the near future.

[AdamDunn]

Joey Votto is underrated big time. Joey Votto belongs in the elite class of prospects with Bailey. He's patient, power, speed, and defense. The only reason he's so low on some people's list is because he only showed up this year. He's going to be a MAJOR contributer to the ball club in 2008.

[cincyinco]

I don't think its wise to put Votto higher up on the list after 1 good year... He made major progress, but I wouldn't put him in the elite class of prospects just yet..He could get there with another big year, but let him prove it before putting him in that class.

He is a fine prospect - I dont know if I see a perinnial allstar or not, but he should be a solid everyday guy I think. Thats a good prospect, but not a great one.

[VR]

Advanced hitter with strong, quick wrists and plenty of in-game power

Just checking....what would qualify as 'in-game' power?

[cincyinco]

Originally Posted by VR

Just checking....what would qualify as 'in-game' power?

Power that shows up in the game and not just in batting practice... ?

[BoydsOfSummer]

Votto is getting plenty of love over at Sickels site. maybe it's from Zoners lurking around over there but he's in the running for a top 35-40 spot overall in a community top prospect list.

[maniem]

Joey Votto is underrated big time. Joey Votto belongs in the elite class of prospects with Bailey. He's patient, power, speed, and defense. The only reason he's so low on some people's list is because he only showed up this year. He's going to be a MAJOR contributer to the ball club in 2008.

I really hope this is true. I wonder what Dunn and Kearns were rated when they were in the minors? If i remember right, they were much more hyped than Votto has been. I would have to think Dunn would have been rated an excellent prospect and Kearns a very good prospect. I would have to think that when Votto makes the jump to the bigs, he'll at least be able to consistently produce the way Kearns did in 2006...850 OPS, 25 HR - 90 RBI...i'm hoping he can do better than that once he gains more experience.

[VR]

Originally Posted by cincyinco

Power that shows up in the game and not just in batting practice... ?

great, does that mean we'll start seeing 'in-game' defense, 'in-game' speed...etc?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by maniem

I really hope this is true. I wonder what Dunn and Kearns were rated when they were in the minors? If i remember right, they were much more hyped than Votto has been. I would have to think Dunn would have been rated an excellent prospect and Kearns a very good prospect. I would have to think that when Votto makes the jump to the bigs, he'll at least be able to consistently produce the way Kearns did in 2006...850 OPS, 25 HR - 90 RBI...i'm hoping he can do better than that once he gains more experience.

Kearns was ranked as high as 11 and Dunn ranked as high as 33 on Baseball Americas top 100 list. Votto is probably right where Dunn was at his highest and Jay Bruce will be ahead of where Kearns was probably, and he is just finished with Low-A.