Tidbit from BA's Twins prospect chat

[edabbs44]

This trade still sickens me. And once they give Lohse millions in arbitration, it will look even worse. You don't just throw out pitchers with at least some sort of promise for million dollar major leaguers with ERAs in the 7s.

Steve Jordan from Oklahoma City asks:
Where is Zach Ward on this list? How is he behind JD Durbin? Did he slip as a prospect, or is Minnesota's system really this good? What kind of projections can you give us on Ward, where will he pan out?

A: John Manuel: He's probably in the top 30 but was not a factor for the top 10 for me. He's probably going to be a reliever, with his delivery and his stuff and his mentality. Then if he's a reliever, is he better than Eduardo Morlan, or Pat Neshek, or Jose Mijares, or Tim Lahey, or Yohan Pino, or . . . it's tough to project relievers. Ward would have been top 10 in the Reds system, and he's not really--in my mind--close to top 10 for the Twins. That says something about the Twins' system, but more about the Reds, IMO.

[Rojo]

You read that his ceiling is as a reliever and it sickens you?

[MrCinatit]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

He's probably in the top 30...

Is this the top 30 in the Twins minor league system? Probably?
Yikes. That is more of a statement about the Reds farm system than it is about the talents of Ward.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Rojo

You read that his ceiling is as a reliever and it sickens you?

Hey, remember what Wayne said about the market for relievers last year?

Honestly though, he was a top 10 prospect in the Reds organization. How do you give up a top 10 guy for someone with a $5 million salary and a 7 ERA? That's straight from the Isaiah Thomas book, "Building a Dynasty".

[dougdirt]

Well, does Wards 5.29 ERA in his time with the Twins have any barring on his Twins ranking? Does his 2.29 ERA with the Dragons have to do with his Reds ranking?

Jon Sickels has Ward rated as the #16 Twins prospect, and the Twins are his team.

[Rojo]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Hey, remember what Wayne said about the market for relievers last year?

Honestly though, he was a top 10 prospect in the Reds organization. How do you give up a top 10 guy for someone with a $5 million salary and a 7 ERA? That's straight from the Isaiah Thomas book, "Building a Dynasty".

Because most times top 10 prospects aren't that good and Lohse was winning big league games by the time he was Ward's age.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Rojo

Because most times top 10 prospects aren't that good and Lohse was winning big league games by the time he was Ward's age.

Yep, and it's been all downhill from there. Lohse is going to command at least $4-5 million in arbitration this year. Sweet.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Hey, remember what Wayne said about the market for relievers last year?

Honestly though, he was a top 10 prospect in the Reds organization. How do you give up a top 10 guy

It's not hard to give up a "top 10" guy if you think you only have five or six minor-leaguers with a real future and the player in question isn't one of them. Ten is just a number. The guy's real talent level is what matters, not how he compares to the rest of our dreck.

One of the skills a GM needs is to figure out, of his prospects, which ones are the crown jewels and which ones are the trading chips. Ward was a trading chip. You can make a good case that Lohse was the wrong fringe guy to swap him for, but a fringe major-leaguer is about what Ward was worth in a straight-up deal, IMO.

[traderumor]

If we find another starter and Lohse is our #4 starter, we will have a pretty good rotation.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by traderumor

If we find another starter and Lohse is our #4 starter, we will have a pretty good rotation.

If Lohse is the #4, that means the acquisition will be the #5 and worse than Lohse. Milton will be the #3. Not a good rotation at all.

[LoganBuck]

The number three won't be Milton. I don't think Bob C. will allow it. More likely holding the number five until Bailey gets there. I can honestly see them eating Milton's salary if he sucks it up through April.

[lollipopcurve]

Lohse is going to command at least $4-5 million in arbitration this year. Sweet.

These days... so what? I don't understand the anitpathy towards Lohse. He's got a good arm, has never been hurt, is relatively young and will be pitching for a big contract this year. I like him slotted towards the back of the rotation. Ward? Funky mechanics, some history of arm fatigue -- he's likely a RH middle reliever at the major league level, if he gets there at all.

[Doc. Scott]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

This trade still sickens me. And once they give Lohse millions in arbitration, it will look even worse. You don't just throw out pitchers with at least some sort of promise for million dollar major leaguers with ERAs in the 7s.

Steve Jordan from Oklahoma City asks:
Where is Zach Ward on this list? How is he behind JD Durbin? Did he slip as a prospect, or is Minnesota's system really this good? What kind of projections can you give us on Ward, where will he pan out?

A: John Manuel: He's probably in the top 30 but was not a factor for the top 10 for me. He's probably going to be a reliever, with his delivery and his stuff and his mentality. Then if he's a reliever, is he better than Eduardo Morlan, or Pat Neshek, or Jose Mijares, or Tim Lahey, or Yohan Pino, or . . . it's tough to project relievers. Ward would have been top 10 in the Reds system, and he's not really--in my mind--close to top 10 for the Twins. That says something about the Twins' system, but more about the Reds, IMO.

The chances that Ward-for-Lohse becomes the Reds' version of Kazmir-for-Zambrano is pretty darn remote. I'd say you're exaggerating quite a bit.

As great as Ward pitched at Dayton, he was at least a year too old for Low-A ball. In addition, he pitched poorly from the minute he joined the Twins. I'd wondered before the trade was made why in the world Ward wasn't promoted to Sarasota after a month or two. As it turns out, the decision to deal him for someone had probably already been made at that point and it made Zach look better to have better numbers.

Good trading involves playing the percentages sometimes and taking the risk sometimes. With this deal, as ugly as the pitchers' lines looked the day it was consummated, I think this was just one of those instances where Krivsky decided to play it safe. As long as he's not doing that as a rule, I'm okay with it.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Doc. Scott

The chances that Ward-for-Lohse becomes the Reds' version of Kazmir-for-Zambrano is pretty darn remote. I'd say you're exaggerating quite a bit.

As great as Ward pitched at Dayton, he was at least a year too old for Low-A ball. In addition, he pitched poorly from the minute he joined the Twins. I'd wondered before the trade was made why in the world Ward wasn't promoted to Sarasota after a month or two. As it turns out, the decision to deal him for someone had probably already been made at that point and it made Zach look better to have better numbers.

Good trading involves playing the percentages sometimes and taking the risk sometimes. With this deal, as ugly as the pitchers' lines looked the day it was consummated, I think this was just one of those instances where Krivsky decided to play it safe. As long as he's not doing that as a rule, I'm okay with it.

I don't know...Ward may have hit the wall in his first full pro season. He was over 100 innings with Dayton and was under 100 in 2005 in college. This year will tell a lot about this deal. I'm still not happy with how content Wayne is with Lohse in the rotation.

[cincyinco]

Lohse is a live arm with middle rotation potential. He's been inconsistent, to say the least - but whats the big deal in giving up a guy most peg as a pen arm if he reaches his ceiling?

The fact that he would be one of our top 10 prospects is merely a reflection on our poor farm system. Not that Ward is an out of this world prospect.

Ward had nice numbers, but IMO these are numbers he should have been putting up at Low A ball all along. He did just what he should have. Its quite possible, IMO, that Krivsky sold a relief pitcher while his value was high, to get a starting pitcher at the ML level.

Now Ward may exceed all expectations in the long run, and it could turn out this was a bad trade. But its an acceptable risk IMO, and I think its a solid move from Krivsky - especially when we need so much help at the upper levels of our franchise.