BA: Draft Order

[dougdirt]

Milledge has seen all of his power leave after his 19 year old season....I dont know why that is, or how it happened, but I think after his 19 year old season his stock dropped. He then turned into a high average, low power guy who has good plate discipline.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Milledge has seen all of his power leave after his 19 year old season....I dont know why that is, or how it happened, but I think after his 19 year old season his stock dropped. He then turned into a high average, low power guy who has good plate discipline.

Power can come back. He's still young and has shown talent. Add in his speed and he's worthy of top prospect status.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Milledge has seen all of his power leave after his 19 year old season....I dont know why that is, or how it happened, but I think after his 19 year old season his stock dropped. He then turned into a high average, low power guy who has good plate discipline.

Milledge for his minor league career has posted: .303/.384/.473 OPS: 857.

While its true his HR total has been lower than the season he spent in the SAL, you have to remember he has played in some pretty brutal home parks since then. Case in point-last season he was stuck in Norfolk. Norfolk is an absolute disaster for hitters essentially killing everyone's power numbers (well maybe not babe ruth).

Here's Milledge's splits from Norfolk:
home: 0.261/0.385/0.325 OPS: 0.710
away: 0.293/0.391/0.560 OPS: 0.951

Here's what Pecota projects for Milledge at Shea stadium (a pitcher's park):

2007 .284/.356/.457
2008 .287/.361/.467
2009 .288/.365/.472
2010 .290/.371/.480
2011 .287/.368/.477

Now consider Milledge is only 21 and already major league ready (Bill James says the great ones make to the majors at a young age). He also is good enough defensively to play centerfield....imagine those offensive numbers from your above average defensive centerfielder. Also, i'd just throw this out there.... raw power hitters rarely develop into good hitters but good hitters often develop substantial power. This kid has all of the tools, gets on base and SLGs....the homers will probably come.

He would look awesome in the outfield at GABP. I think he has to be considered one of the better hitting prospects around right now...

There is no way I'd trade him for 180 innings of Blanton.

[dougdirt]

Jojo, I know all about Milledge...he is a good hitter. I cant argue that, but my whole thing is that he isnt a top hitting prospect....he is in that second tier in my mind, becuase of his lack of power (sure his home parks have been bad, but the guy hit 0 HR at home, in 157 at bats you would think he would have had 1 if he had real power and not Sean Casey type power where it gets 5 feet over the fence).

[jojo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Jojo, I know all about Milledge...he is a good hitter. I cant argue that, but my whole thing is that he isnt a top hitting prospect....he is in that second tier in my mind, becuase of his lack of power (sure his home parks have been bad, but the guy hit 0 HR at home, in 157 at bats you would think he would have had 1 if he had real power and not Sean Casey type power where it gets 5 feet over the fence).

There is way more to being a top hitting prospect than simple raw power. Good hitters develop power.

Here's another way to frame the argument that Milledge is one of the top hitting prospects around....

Milledge's park-adjusted season totals in context with the park-adjusted league averages in '06:
milledge: .296/.410/.464 OPS: .874
IL ave: .259/.326/.390 OPS: .716

Considering that comparison, he's clearly a top hitting prospect-he was head and shoulders above most everyone else in a pitchers league...

Now consider this comparison:

Milledge's park adjusted IL '06:
.296/.410/.464

major league positional average:
'06 LF: .276/.348/.456
'06 CF: .267/.332/.425
'06 RF: .277/.345/.458

Since 1 pt of OBP is worth roughly 3 pts of SLG, you can see how valuable a hitter that Milledge has the potential to be.... Heck, as shown in a previous post, Pecota projects him to be better than league average offensively in the majors at any outfield position while playing in a pitchers park in '07....at the tender age of 22. The pool of minor leaguers with that distinction is not very big.

Anyway, thats just my humble opinion on Milledge...

[Superdude]

Milledge's park-adjusted season totals in context with the park-adjusted league averages in '06:
milledge: .296/.410/.464 OPS: .874
IL ave: .259/.326/.390 OPS: .716

Where'd you find park adjusted numbers? Nice. I see what you're saying though. Milledge had a .409 extra base hit percentage and 1.77 doubles and triples per homerun during his low A season. His next two seasons in high A and AA, his XBP dropped to around .300 and hit around 4 doubles and triples per homerun. If the parks were bad, I could see the decrease in homerun power, but there's really no explanation for that kind of drop in XBP. In AAA last year, he was still more of a doubles hitter, but his XBP got back up to a respectable .377. If these parks are as bad as people say they are, a promotion may turn some of those doubles into homeruns and his isoP may get back to where people thought it would be. He's still only like 21, and the tools are definitely there.

Since 1 pt of OBP is worth roughly 3 pts of SLG, you can see how valuable a hitter that Milledge has the potential to be

It's like 1.8 according to The Hardball Times.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Superdude

Where'd you find park adjusted numbers? Nice. I see what you're saying though.

minorleaguesplits.com It wont be long before these guys start charging, I bet.

Originally Posted by Superdude

It's like 1.8 according to The Hardball Times.

Thanks for the correction..... Paul Depodesta's quote from moneyball is melded ito my brain

[Superdude]

Paul Depodesta's quote from moneyball is melded ito my brain

I remember that. DePodesta's the man! Hee Sop Choi baby.

[Javy Pornstache]

Originally Posted by New Fever

Also if Scott Schoeneweis signs elsewhere the lowest that pick would be 54th.

Just bumping this up to note that a report is out today stating Schoeneweis is close to signing with the Mets, reportedly for three years. Figured this could use a bump when talking about draft order.

[Gallen5862]

15. Reds
37. Reds (Rich Aurilia, A, to SF)
52. Reds (Scott Schoeneweis, B, to NYM)
104. Reds (Aurilia to SF)
Those are the Reds first round pick and Supplemental picks.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/263133.html

Type B free agent Scott Schoeneweis has reached a deal with the Mets, which increases the numbers of first-round compensation picks to 33. Another potential compensation choice went by the wayside when Type B Mark Mulder re-upped with the Cardinals. The updated draft order is below.

First-Round Picks
1. Devil Rays
2. Royals
3. Cubs
4. Pirates
5. Orioles
6. Nationals
7. Brewers
8. Rockies
9. Diamondbacks
10. Giants
11. Mariners
12. Marlins
13. Indians
14. Braves
15. Reds
16. Blue Jays (Frank Catalanotto, A, to Tex)
17. Rangers (Carlos Lee, A, to Hou)
18. Cardinals
19. Phillies
20. Dodgers (Julio Lugo, A, to Bos)
21. Blue Jays
22. Giants (Jason Schmidt, A, to LAD)
23. Padres
24. Rangers (Gary Matthews Jr., A, to LAA)
25. White Sox
26. Athletics
27. Tigers
28. Twins
29. Giants (Moises Alou, A, to NYM)
30. Yankees
Supplemental First-Round Picks
31. Cubs (Juan Pierre, B, to LAD)
32. Nationals (Alfonso Soriano, A, to ChC)
33. Diamondbacks (Craig Counsell, B, to Mil)
34. Giants (Alou)
35. Mariners (Gil Meche, B, to KC)
36. Braves (Danys Baez, A, to Bal)
37. Reds (Rich Aurilia, A, to SF)
38. Rangers (Lee)
39. Cardinals (Jeff Suppan, A, to Mil)
40. Phillies (David Dellucci, A, to Cle)
41. Red Sox (Alex Gonzalez, B, to Cin)
42. Blue Jays (Justin Speier, A, to LAA)
43. Dodgers (Lugo)
44. Padres (Woody Williams, A, to Hou)
45. Angels (Adam Kennedy, B, to StL)
46. Athletics (Barry Zito, A, to SF)
47. Tigers (Jamie Walker, B, to Bal)
48. Mets (Roberto Hernandez, A, to Cle)
49. Nationals (Jose Guillen, B, to Sea)
50. Diamondbacks (Miguel Batista, B, to Sea)
51. Giants (Schmidt)
52. Reds (Scott Schoeneweis, B, to NYM)
53. Rangers (Matthews)
54. Red Sox (Keith Foulke, B, to Cle)
55. Blue Jays (Catalanotto)
56. Padres (Dave Roberts, A, to SF)
57. Athletics (Frank Thomas, B, to Tor)
58. Mets (Chad Bradford, A, to Bal)
59. Giants (Mike Stanton, B, to Cin)
60. Rangers (Mark DeRosa, B, to ChC)
61. Blue Jays (Ted Lilly, B, to ChC)
62. Padres (Alan Embree, B, to Oak)
63. Padres (Ryan Klesko, B, to SF)
64. Diamondbacks (have yet to sign 2006 first-rounder Max Scherzer)
Second-Round Changes
67. Nationals (Soriano to ChC)
69. Braves (Baez to Bal)
71. Cardinals (Suppan to Mil)
74. Athletics (Zito to SF)
77. Mets (Hernandez to Cle)
81. Padres (Williams to Hou)
88. Blue Jays (Speier to LAA)
Third-Round Changes
99. Mets (Bradford to Bal)
104. Reds (Aurilia to SF)
107. Phillies (Dellucci to Cle)
Fourth-Round Changes
134. Padres (Roberts to SF)
Remaining Compensation Free Agents
NYY: Ron Villone (B).
SD: Chan Ho Park (B), David Wells (B).

[cincyinco]

Thanks for the update. Good to have a nice amount of picks in such a "heralded" draft class. I hope we don't skimp on signing some top talent - as I honestly believe this the fundamental way the Reds will right the ship - and I think ownership knows that as well.

The "twins" model of doing things... build the farm up. Well WK, here's your opportunity... don't let us Reds faithful down.

[DoogMinAmo]

This draft will be a huge test for the new regime. Plenty of talent to fill the coiffers, plenty of picks to showcase an ability to find and develop talent, and an opportunity to show the diehard fans (because banana phoners don't care about the draft) the new ownership will put its money where its mouth is. I will be very happy if this draft turns out as well, relative to the talent level, as last year's.

[Gallen5862]

Is this draft suppose to be more of a pitchers draft or position players? I would love for the Reds to load up on great pitching prospects this draft and get some good bats as well.

[Shaknb8k]

I just picked up the Baseball America Prospect Handbook and in the back of the book it list the signing bonus' for the '06 and '05 drafts for the top 100 picks. That got me thinking about how much we are looking at for the '07 draft in signing bonus'.

Right now the Reds have picks 15, 37, 52, 104. In 2006 the signing bonus for around those four picks are right around 3.6 million and in 2005 it was right around 3.5 so in '07 its going to be right around that much to sign those top 4 draft picks.

It also list the budgets for the last 4 drafts: 2003-3.1 million, 2004-4.7 million, 2005-3.8 million, and 2006-3.9 million.

So pretty much the Reds are going to have to up the budget for the draft this year or go cheap. Do teams typically set the budget around the draft picks or do they set a budget and then draft players that fit into that?

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Shaknb8k

I just picked up the Baseball America Prospect Handbook and in the back of the book it list the signing bonus' for the '06 and '05 drafts for the top 100 picks. That got me thinking about how much we are looking at for the '07 draft in signing bonus'.

Right now the Reds have picks 15, 37, 52, 104.


So pretty much the Reds are going to have to up the budget for the draft this year or go cheap. Do teams typically set the budget around the draft picks or do they set a budget and then draft players that fit into that?

Perhaps I am mistaken, but the Reds should also have their regular second round pick, which should be around number 78. The publications list the additional or changed picks, but don't always list the regular picks after the first round.

So I think the Reds have 5 picks through number 103 (which is the third round choice).

If they spend the money to sign these five selections and use them wisely, it should be a big boost to the system. I hope they do.