The 37 year old ballplayer

[westofyou]

Part of this years gamble is a gamble that Ken Griffey Jr. will produce at the bat better then last year and in the field (hopefully not the middle of it) Coming off his worst OPS since the 80's if Griffey makes it to the plate 300 times this year he'll be the 26th man in Reds history to log that many plate appearances at that age.

The gamble is a big one, especially since he has a long injury history as a Red, he plays a demanding position (or insists on it) and his on base percentage took a hit of mammoth proportions last year.

Here's the list of players in Reds history who topped 300 PA's at age 37 or older. The far right column lists the Runs they created over the average at their position. The good news is a player at age 37 has a greater chance of staying within sight of their peers. The bad news is it gets worse after that and that should include Griffey and any other oldster that compiles too many at bats.

The bottom list is just the men who played outfield.

CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
AGE >= 37

AGE                           YEAR     AGE      AVG      OBA      SLG     RC/G     RCAP    
1    Pete Rose                1985       44     .264     .395     .319     4.99       -1   
T2   Barry Larkin             2004       40     .289     .352     .419     4.85        7   
T2   Dummy Hoy                1902       40     .290     .389     .380     6.31        1   
T2   Jake Daubert             1924       40     .281     .331     .368     3.97      -19   
T5   Bid McPhee               1899       39     .279     .360     .370     5.82        8   
T5   Dave Concepcion          1987       39     .319     .377     .384     5.09        2   
T5   Sparky Adams             1934       39     .252     .307     .317     3.71       -3   
T5   Jake Daubert             1923       39     .292     .349     .398     4.75      -14   
T9   Bid McPhee               1898       38     .249     .341     .346     5.12        1   
T9   Edd Roush                1931       38     .271     .308     .338     3.65      -17   
T9   Kiki Cuyler              1937       38     .271     .333     .320     3.67       -9   
T9   Dave Concepcion          1986       38     .260     .314     .344     3.51        0   
T9   Sparky Adams             1933       38     .262     .320     .310     3.58       -9   
T9   Barry Larkin             2002       38     .245     .305     .367     3.66      -10   
T9   Jake Daubert             1922       38     .336     .395     .492     6.66       24   
T16  Bid McPhee               1897       37     .301     .386     .408     6.59        8   
T16  Pete Rose                1978       37     .302     .362     .421     5.70       18   
T16  Kiki Cuyler              1936       37     .326     .380     .453     6.95       28   
T16  Dave Concepcion          1985       37     .252     .314     .330     3.10       -9   
T16  Tommy Leach              1915       37     .224     .338     .275     3.29       -3   
T16  George Crowe             1958       37     .275     .348     .400     5.03      -10   
T16  Tommy Corcoran           1906       37     .207     .242     .249     2.15      -30   
T16  Jake Daubert             1921       37     .306     .341     .399     4.65       -9   
T16  Gee Walker               1945       37     .253     .289     .320     3.22      -22   
T16  Tom Daly                 1903       37     .293     .332     .407     5.34        6  


AGE                           YEAR     AGE      AVG      OBA      SLG     RC/G     RCAP    
1    Dummy Hoy                1902       40     .290     .389     .380     6.31        1   
T2   Edd Roush                1931       38     .271     .308     .338     3.65      -17   
T2   Kiki Cuyler              1937       38     .271     .333     .320     3.67       -9   
T4   Kiki Cuyler              1936       37     .326     .380     .453     6.95       28   
T4   Tommy Leach              1915       37     .224     .338     .275     3.29       -3   
T4   Gee Walker               1945       37     .253     .289     .320     3.22      -22

[princeton]

it wasn't this year's gamble.

It was a gamble that we lost many years ago

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by princeton

it wasn't this year's gamble.

It was a gamble that we lost many years ago

True... The Cubs made the same gamble this year, 54 Million for Soriano from age 37-39.

Ouch.

[flyer85]

The fact that Jr is seemingly going to play CF just shows the Reds aren't really serious about winning.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by flyer85

The fact that Jr is seemingly going to play CF just shows the Reds aren't really serious about winning.

At the very least it would show they are very good at talking out of both sides of their mouth. Improving the defense is a priority...by the way, Junior is our centerfielder for 2007. You just can't take the first part seriously when the second part hasn't been addressed.

[redsupport]

any wager with griffey is going to lose, he should have quit already, he has dragged the team down its nadir

[TOBTTReds]

T2 Jake Daubert 1924 40 .281 .331 .368 3.97 -19
T5 Jake Daubert 1923 39 .292 .349 .398 4.75 -14
T9 Jake Daubert 1922 38 .336 .395 .492 6.66 24
T16 Jake Daubert 1921 37 .306 .341 .399 4.65 -9

Appearantly Jake Daubert was juicing. Maybe he started 'roids. His slugging jumped almost 100 points in 1922, then all the way back down in '23.

Maybe Jr. will have a 1922 esque resurgance.

[Dom Heffner]

True... The Cubs made the same gamble this year, 54 Million for Soriano from age 37-39.

Is Soriano that old? Wow.

Great post, WOY. Question: You think that Cuyler guy is still around? And if so, would the Reds sign him? I know redsupport would want him.

[Joseph]

I suppose it's wrong to hope he's 1936 Kiki Cuyler.

[dfs]

Originally Posted by Dom Heffner

Is Soriano that old? Wow.

The contract is that long. The cubs are clearly gambling that prices will raise to the point where he won't be considered that extreme an expense.

[Dom Heffner]

I suppose it's wrong to hope he's 1936 Kiki Cuyler.

With this team, hope is all we have.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by AvesIce51

Appearantly Jake Daubert was juicing. Maybe he started 'roids. His slugging jumped almost 100 points in 1922, then all the way back down in '23.

Maybe Jr. will have a 1922 esque resurgance.

Jakes Splits by park 21-22

Park    G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO HBP  SH  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
PHI09  11  40   5  11   3   1   0   9   3   0   0   3   2   1  .275  .326  .400
STL07  11  46   4   9   1   0   1   5   2   0   0   1   2   1  .196  .229  .283
PIT06  11  43   2  12   0   0   0   1   1   3   0   5   0   0  .279  .295  .279
NYC14   9  30   3   9   1   1   0   3   2   1   0   4   0   0  .300  .344  .400
CIN07  72 272  42  86   9   9   1  37  14   8   3  16   5   3  .316  .356  .426
NYC15   9  37   7  14   1   1   0   7   1   1   0   1   1   1  .378  .395  .459
CHI11   9  36   6  15   3   0   0   2   1   1   0   3   2   0  .417  .432  .500
BOS08   4  12   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  .167  .167  .167



Park    G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF  XI ROE GDP  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
PHI09  11  42  16  15   2   1   2   6   7   0i  2   1   2   0i  0i  0i  0i  3   0  .357  .460  .595
STL07  11  44  16  17   1   0   3   5   6   0i  1   0   2   0i  0i  0i  0i  1   1  .386  .460  .614
PIT06  11  47   7  16   0   2   0   3   2   0i  0   0   1   1i  0i  2i  0i  0   2  .340  .360  .426
NYC14  11  44   6  14   1   2   1   5   2   1i  3   1   1   0i  0i  1i  0i  2   1  .318  .362  .500
CIN07  79 299  50 102   3  13   4  35  32   0i 11   1  14   2i  0i  2i  1i  7   7  .341  .404  .478
NYC15  11  44   7  11   2   1   2   4   3   0i  1   0   3   0i  0i  5i  1i  1   3  .250  .298  .477
CHI11  11  49   8  21   6   1   0   6   1   0i  1   0   1   0i  0i  0i  1i  0   3  .429  .440  .592
BOS08  11  41   4   9   0   2   0   4   3   0i  2   0   4   0i  0i  0i  0i  0   0  .220  .273  .317

[Dom Heffner]

The contract is that long. The cubs are clearly gambling that prices will raise to the point where he won't be considered that extreme an expense.

Okay. I was too lazy to look it up but I was thinking that seemed old for him now to be stealing and hitting for power.

I'm in the minority but I think it was a good signing. I'd love to have him in Cincy.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by Dom Heffner

You think that Cuyler guy is still around? And if so, would the Reds sign him? I know redsupport would want him.

Kiki Cuyler was known as the fastest player in MLB in the late 20's and early 30's. When he was about 40 or so he had a son who wanted to take a try at playing ball. Kiki didn't think that it was a good idea and couldn't convince him otherwise. So he made him a deal, they would have a foot race and if the son lost he'd give up the dream and get on with his life.

Apparently Kiki smoked his arse, by about 15 yards or so.

He had told his son prior, I had to quit playing because I was not as fast as once was.

Harold Cuyler moved on.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by dfs

The contract is that long. The cubs are clearly gambling that prices will raise to the point where he won't be considered that extreme an expense.

Quite the gamble, in MLB history 20,740 players have had at 300 PA's or more in a season, only 611 of them were 37 or older. That's .029%, the house wins most of those bets.