A Stubbs related question (or Stubbs cost the Reds the playoffs!!!!!)... - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

jojo · 01-13-2007, 08:00 AM

Well actually not really this is more of a hypothetical (and I don't know if this issue has been hashed out a millions times already around here) but here goes....

What if the Reds had passed on Stubbs at #8 in last years draft? The could've snagged a guy like Tim Lincecum (he went at #10 to SF) who by all accounts could've pitched out of their bullpen in the bigs last year. What is a better scenario going down the stretch last season.... Kearns+ Lincecum+Bray or Stubbs in the system+Majewski+Bray minus Kearns? It's still pretty likely the Reds could've gotten Bray for Lopez in some form of a trade IMHO.

So what do you think, am I nuts or did the Reds cost themselves a playoff spot with their first pick in last year's draft?

lollipopcurve · 01-13-2007, 09:21 AM

Quote:

So what do you think, am I nuts or did the Reds cost themselves a playoff spot with their first pick in last year's draft?

You're raving.

TOBTTReds · 01-13-2007, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jojo

Well actually not really this is more of a hypothetical (and I don't know if this issue has been hashed out a millions times already around here) but here goes....

What if the Reds had passed on Stubbs at #8 in last years draft? The could've snagged a guy like Tim Lincecum (he went at #10 to SF) who by all accounts could've pitched out of their bullpen in the bigs last year. What is a better scenario going down the stretch last season.... Kearns+ Lincecum+Bray or Stubbs in the system+Majewski+Bray minus Kearns? It's still pretty likely the Reds could've gotten Bray for Lopez in some form of a trade IMHO.

So what do you think, am I nuts or did the Reds cost themselves a playoff spot with their first pick in last year's draft?

This is the most hypothetical question ever.

jojo · 01-13-2007, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AvesIce51

This is the most hypothetical question ever.

mixing hyperbole and hypotheticals can be fun but there's no way the Stubbs scenario was more hypothetical than these:

1. How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

or

2. Would a tree falling in the forest make a sound if no one was there to hear?

KoryMac5 · 01-13-2007, 12:18 PM

Knowing how Wayne handles his minor league pitchers there is no way he would have brought Lincecum up.

Example Bailey, some people thought Bailey was good enough to pitch out of the pen yet Wayne kept him in the minors all of last year.

TOBTTReds · 01-13-2007, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KoryMac5

Knowing how Wayne handles his minor league pitchers there is no way he would have brought Lincecum up.

Example Bailey, some people thought Bailey was good enough to pitch out of the pen yet Wayne kept him in the minors all of last year.

Good point. The argument is laid to rest. There is no way Lincecum passes Homer.

jojo · 01-13-2007, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AvesIce51

Good point. The argument is laid to rest. There is no way Lincecum passes Homer.

To me the hypothetical isn't what Krivsky would or wouldn't have done (obviously the Reds took Stubbs rather than Lincecum so we know Krivsky wouldn't have done the hypothetical). It's more about considering what he could've done that may have dramatically changed things last season and going into this one (i.e. are there decisions he could've made that he didn't which may speak to his abilities)... That being said, I'm not sure what role Krivsky ultimately plays in draft day decisions...

Concerning Homer, he wasn't promoted last season because there was a lack of consensus within the organization about his readiness. It's not like he's obviously ready and the Reds are holding him back.

cincyinco · 01-13-2007, 11:04 PM

Krivsky delegated to the draft to Chris Buckley - its my understanding he didn't have much of a part in it. That may change this year, who knows.

I think it was a mistake, as a Lincecum/Bailey pairing would have been more than ideal IMO, given the Reds timetable.

That said, I dont know if he would have been called up, or if it would be wise to call him up so soon. He had a heavy college workload, and we have all seen what happened to Ryan Wagner being called up so soon. I'd hate to repeat that mistake.

So no, I dont think passing Lincecum is the cause for us missing the playoffs. Sure, things could have been different - there's always that chance. But I wouldn't have banked on it.

What I would have banked on is seeing Lincecum and Bailey break through at roughly the same time to go into a rotation with Harang and Arroyo. Perhaps the best rotation the Reds would have had in quite some time.

jojo · 01-14-2007, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cincyinco

What I would have banked on is seeing Lincecum and Bailey break through at roughly the same time to go into a rotation with Harang and Arroyo. Perhaps the best rotation the Reds would have had in quite some time.

This is a really great point...

01-13-2007, 12:18 PM	#5
KoryMac5 Kmac5 Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Waterloo, NY Posts: 3,661	Re: A Stubbs related question (or Stubbs cost the Reds the playoffs!!!!!)... Knowing how Wayne handles his minor league pitchers there is no way he would have brought Lincecum up. Example Bailey, some people thought Bailey was good enough to pitch out of the pen yet Wayne kept him in the minors all of last year.

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01-13-2007, 08:00 AM	#1
jojo Five Tool Fool Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 16,569	A Stubbs related question (or Stubbs cost the Reds the playoffs!!!!!)... Well actually not really this is more of a hypothetical (and I don't know if this issue has been hashed out a millions times already around here) but here goes.... What if the Reds had passed on Stubbs at #8 in last years draft? The could've snagged a guy like Tim Lincecum (he went at #10 to SF) who by all accounts could've pitched out of their bullpen in the bigs last year. What is a better scenario going down the stretch last season.... Kearns+ Lincecum+Bray or Stubbs in the system+Majewski+Bray minus Kearns? It's still pretty likely the Reds could've gotten Bray for Lopez in some form of a trade IMHO. So what do you think, am I nuts or did the Reds cost themselves a playoff spot with their first pick in last year's draft? __________________ "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner Last edited by jojo; 01-13-2007 at 08:03 AM.

01-13-2007, 11:04 PM	#8
cincyinco We are the angry mob Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: The 303 Posts: 2,479	Re: A Stubbs related question (or Stubbs cost the Reds the playoffs!!!!!)... Krivsky delegated to the draft to Chris Buckley - its my understanding he didn't have much of a part in it. That may change this year, who knows. I think it was a mistake, as a Lincecum/Bailey pairing would have been more than ideal IMO, given the Reds timetable. That said, I dont know if he would have been called up, or if it would be wise to call him up so soon. He had a heavy college workload, and we have all seen what happened to Ryan Wagner being called up so soon. I'd hate to repeat that mistake. So no, I dont think passing Lincecum is the cause for us missing the playoffs. Sure, things could have been different - there's always that chance. But I wouldn't have banked on it. What I would have banked on is seeing Lincecum and Bailey break through at roughly the same time to go into a rotation with Harang and Arroyo. Perhaps the best rotation the Reds would have had in quite some time. __________________ "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me." -Hunter S. Thompson