Should We Trade Arroyo?

[hippie07]

I'm not suggesting this by any means because I love the guy and would love to see him with the Reds this year, but I was just thinking about the great breakout year he had last year and all the awards that we've heaped upon him and all the praise that others have given him. You've gotta think he has developed some pretty decent trade value by know.

I'm not baseball smart or statistics smart enough to figure out Arroyo's chances of repeating last year's performance, but my inclination is to believe that it's unlikely.

If we could get something great in return for him (maybe Boston's willing?) would you all be willing to see him go? I'd take a solid #3 or 4 plus an offensive upgrade...

What are your thoughts?...

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by hippie07

I'm not suggesting this by any means because I love the guy and would love to see him with the Reds this year, but I was just thinking about the great breakout year he had last year and all the awards that we've heaped upon him and all the praise that others have given him. You've gotta think he has developed some pretty decent trade value by know.

I'm not baseball smart or statistics smart enough to figure out Arroyo's chances of repeating last year's performance, but my inclination is to believe that it's unlikely.

If we could get something great in return for him (maybe Boston's willing?) would you all be willing to see him go? I'd take a solid #3 or 4 plus an offensive upgrade...

What are your thoughts?...

It's been suggested before. Unless you are doing a total fire sale and rebuild I don't think it makes sense to trade 50% of your reliable starters away. We finally have 2 pitchers we can count on, why give that up after only one year?

[Tom Servo]

I understand the thinking but I just can't get behind the logic of a pitching starved team like us trading a great, cheap pitcher we have under contract for two more seasons.

And I don't really follow the "career year" logic. If this was Jimmy Haynes you'd be right. But Bronson was 24-19 with a 4.27 ERA in two full seasons with the Red Sox, I don't find it hard to believe he can continue to be an above average pitcher in the NL with the Reds.

[George Anderson]

I dont think anyone on this team is untradeable with Bailey being the possible exception. I dont think you should actively persue trading Arroyo but if a team offered for example a couple top notch AAA pitching prospects and I stress top notch, I think you would have to look long and hard at it. Arroyo has dropped quite a few hints that he plans on moving on once his contract is up, so its better to get something as opposed to nothing.

[Krusty]

We finally have resemblance of a competent starting rotation and now we want to break it up?

I just don't get it.

[thatcoolguy_22]

Complete fire sale I could see but, that puts a tremendous amount of faith into our scouting department and I trust those guys like I would a 4 year old to complete my physics assignments for me...

I would like to keep arroyo at least until his final year and THEN examine our chances of winning with him. Because I highly doubt (as do most people that I've seen on this board) that he will resign with us. At that time we could decide the need for more propects or whether or not to "win now."

Nothing would be worse than to trade him and then 2008 for watever reason... Bailey becomes Cy Young, Votto a young McGuire with steroids and denorfia becomes the white vince coleman with a young KGJ glove in center but all we needed was a number 3 starter and we don't have him... hey it could happen

[KronoRed]

I can understand it, this team has very little chance at winning the world series, should we hold on to the good players and hope for a miracle, or trade them for lots of younger guys and a chance at real success.

The fact this team via the last 3 GM's refused to have a full on everyone must go fire sale is one reason why they continue to see .500 as successful.
IMO

[fadetoblack2880]

Originally Posted by Krusty

We finally have resemblance of a competent starting rotation and now we want to break it up?

I just don't get it.

i argree. what would be the point of it?

[realistic]

From a pen and paper business sense it would be a smart move to trade him now because of the above reasons. His numbers in 2007 will not be as good as 2006. He will be gone in 2009. He is at/near peak value if it could get a young quality pitcher who could be in the rotation by 2008. However, finding such pitchers is not scientific/safe or easy.

On the other hand, you must learn to crawl before you run and Arroyo surely helps the Reds rotation. Just having him around for 2 more years ,even if we lose him after that and get nothing in return, is a step in the direction we need to go. For prestige,confidence,hope,ticket sales etc we must keep some players even if it makes no business sense. Success breeds success. And if we ever plan on keeping players like Arroyo after the contract expires we have to start winning again consistently.

Kind of like i felt the Reds should have kept Larkin even though he weould have been overpaid yet at the same time i was glad the Titans let McNair go. Its judgement and situational when to hold em or fold em. In this situation i say hold em. As for Dunn...lets just say i place a premium on starting pitching and think free swinging outfielders are very easily replaced

[wheels]

"A bird in the hand...."

....But on the other hand, if someone offers a treasure trove of near ready prospects, I'd say go for it.

Either way, he's the main success story Wayne can hang his hat on, and he'd be wise to play it carefully.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Krusty

We finally have resemblance of a competent starting rotation and now we want to break it up?

I just don't get it.

It takes more than two to tango. It's the same rotation as last year and I'm going to say it probably will be worse. Arroyo should come back to Earth. Harang will be solid, as usual. I expect less than nothing from Lohse and Milton. If they could pilfer a couple of solid prospects (with at least one being a starter) I would say yes.

[Spitball]

Ramon Ortiz just signed a contract for more than Arroyo made last year. Look at the contracts signed this winter by number five (and even number six) starters. It would be crazy to trade Arroyo. There just isn't anything out there more valuable to a team like Cincinnati than a starting pitcher signed to reasonable contract.

[George Anderson]

Originally Posted by Spitball

Ramon Ortiz just signed a contract for more than Arroyo made last year. Look at the contracts signed this winter by number five (and even number six) starters. It would be crazy to trade Arroyo. There just isn't anything out there more valuable to a team like Cincinnati than a starting pitcher signed to reasonable contract.

I think if you arent at least willing to explore trading Arroyo for top notch AAA pitching then the Reds will not be contendors for a WS title any time soon. We basically will be a .500 club for the next couple years. I would rather gamble, trade Arroyo for top notch pitching prospects, and build this team for a WS title and not just a .500 team every year.

[jmac]

I am still having trouble understanding this "firesale" theory that some propose.
We apparently couldnt get Westbrook for Kearns.We know who we got for Kearns "and" Lopez.
Now who have we got that we could have a firesale and be competetive in the near future?
EE and Bailey should be part of the future.
So a firesale of Jr, Freel, Weathers, Cormea(spelled wrong) , Loshe, EZ, Belisle and so on and so on I doubt will bring back much.
My point is I just dont think this team has the "wood" for a firesale to bring back the talent to turn it around like some think.

[Spitball]

Originally Posted by George Anderson

I think if you arent at least willing to explore trading Arroyo for top notch AAA pitching then the Reds will not be contendors for a WS title any time soon. We basically will be a .500 club for the next couple years. I would rather gamble, trade Arroyo for top notch pitching prospects, and build this team for a WS title and not just a .500 team every year.

I don't see the logic in trading one of the rarest commodities in baseball (a successful staring pitcher) for a gamble on the future. There is a good chance you end up with Jerome Williams, Oliver Perez, Darren Dreifort, or Kris Benson. Hopefully you might end up with a pitcher who is as good as Arroyo, but you'll have to rough it out through his learning process years and hope it doesn't take him right up to his free agency to develop.